Live down to 4 hands. I’m in small blind with AQ and 12 big blinds, big blind has 10BB, under the gun shoves for 8 big blinds, the button calls. He has 45 BB. WHAT IS CORRECT here? The payouts are 4th 8500, 3rd, 16000, 2nd is 27k an first is 38k. Seems to me the UTG raise is very wide and with just a call from the big stack I likely have the best of it and have a way better chance for a higher finish. If I fold I’m sorta resigning myself to 4th - I can call and hope to check down unless I smash the flop,but probably better to push. Can anyone make a case for folding? Ever?

Not folding

I once folded in this spot and it was mistake.

I think I'd reshove this hand. If you win this pot you give yourself a chance to win the tournament.

But still interesting to know what does ICMizer say ?

+1

I'll register a guess that AQo is too good to fold but we want to muck AJo.

Would ICMizer be able to calculate this sort of situation? If so, it’s likely worth having. When I do the math it seems so clearcut that you can’t fold here because 1. You likely have the best of it or close and giving yourself some shot to win the tournament as opposed to being short stack with fairly few orbits left. And 2 AQ may we’ll be the best hand you get to see before you’re blinded off four handed

With this set-up, if hero shoves and (likely) gets called by the big stack on the button, outcomes are (a) big win for hero; (b) big stack wins pot and hero finished 3rd; (c) small stack wins main pot but hero wins side pot; (d) small stack wins main and hero busts in 4th place.

As long as we think we're ahead of the original shover's range, it's a call (and I think it is).

I'll make the case for folding.

If we fold and BTN wins we are in 2nd place. No risk, we just bumped up $8,000 and have a better than even chance of getting an additional $11,000. Its true that had we called and beaten BTN we would now be tied for 1st.

If we fold and UTG wins we are still in 3rd place. And it should be noted that had we called there is a very good chance that we would finish 4th unless we could beat UTG.

What is our equity here? I would guess that calling/shoving we would have somewhere between 40% and 50% equity. In the unlikely event that either player has AK our equity would be between 15% and 25%. And if either player has a pair we could be as low as 30% to 40%. We only have 60% equity when we are against Ax and Ay.

So given the shove and call I would say overall we are about 40% to survive (and be tied for 1st). I would say we are at least 40% to pick up $8,000 if we fold and then another 60% of the $11,000. Which means overall if we fold we should pick up the $8,000 about about 75% of the time. And the next $11,000 about 30% of the time. So folding is worth about $9,300 plus some small chance at the last $11,000 (maybe 10%). So I think folding gives us close to $10,400.

If we call/shove we pick up the next $8,000 about 40% of the time as well as an overall 30% shot at the next $11,000. So thats worth about $7,500. Similarly we would have slightly less than 20% chance at the final $11,000. So its net additional $2,000. So close to $9,500.

Its close enough that the biggest factor for me in calling would be do I think the two smaller stacks are any good playing the short stacks? If not I would probably fold. But if I think I am the worst player here I would shove all day long. It would also depend somewhat on how tired I was. The more tired the more likely i am to call. And lastly, for me I call more frequently because winning means more to me than laddering up. But we are talking significant amounts of money here. So if the next $8,000 means a lot then a fold would be best...

that's how i think about payouts.

button has 45BB and has a shot at winning another 9.5BB + antes if there is some.
he will have 55BB+ if he wins this hand and BB makes a common fold.

You have AQ with 12BB with a chance of winning a 20BB+ pot and taking 12BB of button. (button down to 33BB)

Win this hand and you have a real good shot at finishing 1st. 4 handed UTG short stacked probably ahead of his range. button could have a pair or AJ, AK, A8 hands.

I would gamble here and shove.

I'm folding most likely but player reads may sway my decision. How wide is he shoving? Is btn competent? How wide is he calling? Would he rejam marginal holdings? Has he been using his stack to put pressure on people?

If we widen UTG range a bit AQ is still a fold in HRC

It's a disaster when UTG wins and BTN beats us. Even if we fold and SB wins were still 3rd in chips and have the big stack to our right.

HRC for lulz

http://hands.holdemresources.net/?id=n4scoe8oxb8u

Also if I'm BTN I'm just calling the jam with all my monsters so if he's competent he can still have a big hand here.

Shoving accomplishes nothing in this spot. You have zero fold equity against the big stack pre-flop and you have bb behind you still to act. Bb shove does not reopen the action so you do not have to put your tournament life at risk against the big stack.

Call and see flop then make your decision. Bigstack, if playing to knock out all in(s), should check it down with you (2nd in chips) unless he has near nuts on river or plays like an idiot.

We have 12bbs shove is for 8bbs, calling is the worst option IMO.

Wrong

Why should the big stack be playing to knock out all ins? He's not the one who's handcuffed.

Don't see calling to fold at all.

Nah

Unless you're arguing that calling is the worst option which I would say

If utg is all in for 8, button calls with 45, you can't imagine a runout that would make you fold if the button shoves on river? What if the bb also calls or shoves and bigstack knocks out two players- you wouldn't rather fold and survive and make second place w 2-4 bbs?

I did not think two players checking it down against the short all in to be an earth shattering revelation of tournament strategy.
Perhaps i am wrong.

Op, where are you playing tournaments with these dollar payouts and players only have 17 bigs average?

sorry you dont get it

Don't want to rely on ancient poker etiquette masquerading as strategy to get to the river. Some people are feral.

We agree hero has no fold equity, therefore he has absolutely no reason not to go all in pre with AA. It's also clear that any pocket pair hero wants to go with needs to see 5 cards so would go all in pre (99-JJ+).

The only reason hero would call is if he's trying to find a way to get away on certain flops. If I'm the big stack and the flop comes 742 and I hold KQ, I'm putting you all in. UTG could have 88, AJ, and I get to clean up my outs for 4bb.

There is nothing to get other than

?????? Where are you getting aa from?

742 is a snapcall w 4bb where kk2 or 678 all one suit we dont have is a snap fold. Why you dont want to see 60% of the board before you put your tournament life at risk when you have no preflop fold equity w aq is mystifying with these ladder jumps.

Checking it down to the river is hardly unusual with a short stack all in but is definitely player dependent.

What makes KK2 a fold? That looks a no fold flop from where I'm sitting.

Crippling my chances to win and maybe only realising 60% of my equity? I don't like that bet. Sooner fold.

You maybe right about kk2 as you have lock no pair. I wanted a flop that hits button range hard and he bets but not our hand. Kk2 was a poor choice. Jj2, k98 come to mind. Kj or k10, i would probably call off with the over and draw.

How are you crippling your chances to win if bigstack takes out one, possiblly two shorter stacks?

What do you accomplish by preflop betting your last 6 bbs into a 25bb pot against the big stack w 45bbs? You dont think you can realize your full equity on later streets?

I think call, fold and shove is the correct order of options here. I would have a hard time folding or not soving later streets but want those options given the pay jumps in this spot.

First, let's assume BB folds here and watches to see if he can ladder up while one or maybe two other players get knocked out. So, ignore the unlikely prospect of a 4-way pot.

Next, assume that the big sack on the button is not an idiot and understands that if hero calls from the SB, he is mostly pot-committed, plus hero's range to call is much narrower than his (toward big hands), so he's not betting again unless he is 100% sure he has the winner. He has no fear of you betting because he can call with anything and he knows hero is not betting again without the stone nuts. Add in the common strategy of checking down to bust out the small stack, because from button's perspective the stack size of hero vs. OR (if either wins the pot) is not significant, so Btn has no particular reason to want to knock one out vs. the other, and since he's not likely to get a fold from a hand that beats him, there's no reason to put more chips in.

So, while it's hard to go through all this in real time, there's a good argument for a call rather than a shove. There's at least a chance that it checks down and if hero doesn't win, then hero still has a chip and a chair.

yea id shove here