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ICM in a large MTT with limit and split-pot games (e.g. WSOP mixes) ICM in a large MTT with limit and split-pot games (e.g. WSOP mixes)
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06-15-2018 , 04:30 AM
#1
AKQJ10
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 13,299
This came up in an LO8 hand I posted from the recent $1500 WSOP 8-game. Hand history here: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/4...tusow-1714532/

There I start the day around 110 to 115th out of 134, 481 started, 73 pay, mincash is 1.5x buyin. Sage advice from many on the LO8 forum is that I should play very carefully, basically just try to flop a hand, because of tournament life and ICM and so forth.

Spoiler:
I think those advocating careful play there (cold calling my A2xx) are quite wrong. ICM considerations on the bubble would be minimal for such a big tournament with a pretty small mincash. And anyway, we're 40 places from the bubble. Moreover, this is a limit split pot game and I have enough chips to play one more stunted limit hand after this one.

Finally, fwiw the survival/skill argument is probably not applicable since I'm in a minority of amateurs left by day 2 of this tournament.


Are there ICM calculators/estimators that can help me get a more concrete grasp of ICM dynamics here? Obviously solving for precise numbers is intractable with 134! = 1.99e228 permutations of finishes, but simplifying assumptions about the chip distribution in the middle of the chip count standings would still demonstrate the point.
ICM in a large MTT with limit and split-pot games (e.g. WSOP mixes) Quote
06-18-2018 , 01:11 PM
#2
erc007's Avatar
erc007
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Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 2,227
Quote:
Originally Posted by AKQJ10
Obviously solving for precise numbers is intractable with 134! = 1.99e228 permutations of finishes, but simplifying assumptions about the chip distribution in the middle of the chip count standings would still demonstrate the point.
And you wonder why Nash was crazy...

You had me at intractable
ICM in a large MTT with limit and split-pot games (e.g. WSOP mixes) Quote
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