We are playing the $55 $200k Sunday Guarnatee on ACR in a huge field event. I have been crushing it early and am 1st in chips with about 1800 currently in the field with about 5 levels left in the rebuy period.

(Lots of good luck so far. My very first hand I doubled up with AT vs A2 on an AT2 flop, I later beat another huge stack all-in pre with AA v. KK. And later got it all in vs another big stack with nut flush versus his smaller flush).

OTTH

I have about 221 bbs (about 7 buy ins currently). We just moved to the table and I have a very health chip stack (135 bbs) two spots to my right who is the V in this hand. No reads.

V opens UTG for 2.2 bbs. I call with A4. BB calls and we see a flop.

Flop (9 bbs): 635

BB checks, V fires 7 bbs. I raise to 21 bbs. BB folds and V shoves over 100 chips. This should be a clear cEV call, I think, given I'm likely facing an overpair, against which I have an equity advantage -- even vs. AA (52/44). Against a set, I still have 40%. But given our stack, do we think we should just let it go and not take the variance? Interested in thoughts on play on this hand so far as well.

Thanks.

I would really hate to do it but I would still call.

There are 1800 left. Still want to take variance with positive expectation. Villain might even have a lesser heart draw where we are a very big favorite. We will still have 80 BB of we lose, so no loss of maneuverability. These are the spots you need to final table a big MTT (and to win them, of course!)

Thanks for the responses so far ... will post results later to give more a chance to contribute.

Do you guys agree that V's play was terrible? As deep as we are, he should never be playing this board so fast ... both me and BB (I think in the 30 BB range) have significant nut advantage on this board. I think I range check if I am him, and play very carefully afterwards.

I would fold preflop. I do not like flat calling raised with this hand except in the BB, but that may not be standard.

I cannot say his push is bad without knowing what he had. The push is for a little less than twice pot. Of course it is a fine play with some hands.

It would be terrible to fold this after raising with the pot odds you are getting. You are probably a little ahead of his shoving range. I would not raise with this sort of draw without the intention to gii.

The simulations show that you are well ahead of some hands he could do this with.

Sorry you lost a big pot and didn't take a top prize being the chipleader in the reentry period.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

990 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 653

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
ah4h	60.20%	587	18
KhKs	39.80%	385	18

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

990 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 653

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
ah4h	68.28%	676	0
8h7h	31.72%	314	0

The charts I've seen, which stop at 100 BBs say it's mostly fold EP v EP with some 3! mixed in. But a mix of calls/folds/3! EP v HJ. I think I overcall with these hands IP when we have over 100 BBs eff, because they are the type of hands where I can win a very big pot, and I play small ball in these situations so don't want to bloat the pot pre just for a few measly blinds.

I don't know about charts, but I would not flat call with such a weak hand in ep, regardless of whether you can make the nuts.

In certain fields, this hand type can be very profitable. If there aren’t a lot of squeezes, and there are enough passive players willing to pay you off with non nut flushes for 100BBs, you have a profitable spot. I’d guess this buy in level is around the level where its profitability is close to break even. At bigger buyins, this is probably a loser.

As a live player, I’d look to play hands like this up to about a $400 buy in (or a soft WSOP 1K)

Once you make that raise to 21BB, you have to go with it. I think there is just too much in the pot. I would probably raise in your spot normally this deep so that you can decide to take a free card if you want.

Everything you say here is true but is exactly why we shouldn't raise flop

This is the big blinds board , he has 20 combos of straights and is the only one who can have two pair, your MP range shouldn't even have many sets here so raising doesn't make sense theoretically, as well as that we have a super strong draw that can continue to any turn action , we are in position against two players and we are more than happy to call and let bb continue in the hand with draws we dominate.

As played we obviously can't fold to the all in with great price and odds against anything in the deck.

^ I think this is right, but I didn't mention in the OP that BB only had around 30 bbs, so I wasnt't too concerned about him, and I'd snap any raise by him. My thinking was that my hand had so much equity against virtually any range, but currently virtually no showdown value, that I wanted to push the matter. But all things considered, a call is probably better.

Even if you call and lose you’re still fine wrt big blinds. Don’t see how you can fold this.

Herb, I think this deep both players can have all the sets.

I don’t know if this is correct or not, but if it were me and I decided to raise this flop, I would raise an amount that would allow a bb shove to reopen the action. That could potentially benefit us since the open raiser would have to tread carefully, and if he doesn’t, it allows us to tighten his range