Quote:
Originally Posted by vladimir123
So for example in 109 bounty builder the starting bounty is worth 1250 chips
So, if a player with a stack of 1250 chips opens utg at blind level 15/30, can i profitably shove 72o on him for 40 bigs? If not, explain why please.
The way I would look at this is to estimate what range of hands will call my shove and what % of time Villain will fold.
So jamming with 72o for example if villain opens 20% UTG at this level and will call your shove with QQ+/AKs which we will call 5% of the time for sake of argument, you will win ~120 chips 95% of the time (for +114), and you will win the bounty + chips which we will estimate at 2,620 approximately 12% of the 5% (for +16) and you will lose 1,250 chips 88% of the 5% (for -50). So you will net about 80 chips on avg the first time you do it.
But that is if you are in the BB. If you were to jam UTG+1 then the problem is anyone else behind you who picks up AA/KK/QQ/etc. or who is willing to gamble can call and if they have more chips than you, you now lose half of your equity because you are no longer playing for a bounty.
Also, remember that after you do it a few times everybody will now widen your range and will be calling wider.
So for bounties on a single hand shoving any two with nobody behind you can be very effective to win a smallish pot. To me that isn't worth the chance of having my chip stack decimated when called. But it may be worth it if you know you are never doing it again without AA/KK and hope to provoke a call.
This reminds me of an all-in or fold tourney I played at the Borgota. Where it made no sense to shove without AA but at some point you had to in order to pick up pots...