[Hot $55] JJ facing 3bj, call or fold? - MTT Poker Strategy

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[Hot $55] JJ facing 3bj, call or fold?

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03-15-2016 , 05:42 PM

Foxyy

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 632

Hi All,

This hand cropped up in tonights hot $55 on stars.

We are ITM, and i am sitting 10th/160ish - 188 paid.

So 3bettors stats are 37/16/0 (VPIP/PFR/3B[0/5]) from only 19 hands.
Limper is 30/20 from only 10 hands FWIW.

Is this a fold or am i being results orientated? The limp UTG kinda makes this hand a little more tricky too, as i'm not really opening light in this spot?

Poker Stars, $50 Buy-in (750/1,500 blinds, 175 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37274656

MP3: 13,325 (8.9 bb)
CO: 8,705 (5.8 bb)
BTN: 36,686 (24.5 bb)
SB: 35,958 (24 bb)
BB: 11,732 (7.8 bb)
UTG+1: 15,913 (10.6 bb)
Hero (UTG+2): 55,078 (36.7 bb)
MP1: 9,424 (6.3 bb)
MP2: 39,222 (26.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with J

UTG+1 calls 1,500, Hero raises to 4,550, 5 folds, SB raises to 35,783 and is all-in, 2 folds, Hero calls 31,233

Flop: (76,141) 9

(2 players, 1 is all-in)
Turn: (76,141) 4

(2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: (76,141) 2

(2 players, 1 is all-in)

Spoiler:

Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.

Thanks all.

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03-15-2016 , 07:39 PM

ChanY

adept

Join Date: Aug 2014 Posts: 1,113

Just fold and tell nobody, ever.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...5&postcount=24

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03-16-2016 , 05:46 AM

furo

deviation of equilibrium

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 29,639

Those spots are not the same at all.
I would get JJ/AK in OP. Its +ev and winning this puts you in a tournament winning position. If you lose you can still push it like 80% of the field.

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03-16-2016 , 07:43 AM

ChanY

adept

Join Date: Aug 2014 Posts: 1,113

Quote:

Originally Posted by furo

Those spots are not the same at all.
I would get JJ/AK in OP. Its +ev and winning this puts you in a tournament winning position. If you lose you can still push it like 80% of the field.

I noticed it afterwards, but I've ran head first into the nuts too many times to not be cautious in spots like these. 10BB limping utg is usually not good.

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03-16-2016 , 08:22 AM

Chalkyman

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 144

calling all day, he has 77-TT ez, ak, aq also likely.

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03-16-2016 , 01:41 PM

RalphWaldoEmerson

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 5,963

call

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03-17-2016 , 03:32 PM

OutPlayU27

old hand

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 1,688

#Neverfolding

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03-18-2016 , 06:50 AM

scheier

grinder

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 527

Yeah, UTG folds to the SB push, so he's not NYBR or something like that at all! The only consequence that the limp can have is that it could make the SB more cautious about an eventual trap and we can probably tighten SB's range a little bit. Unless UTG and SB have played more hands together and SB knows that UTG is likely not trapping, which makes for an even better push spot and then we should loosen SB's range a little bit... So all in all...

It still seems like a clear call to me. Ranging SB at AA-88, AQ+ easily justifies a call already, the bubble having burst recently.

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03-18-2016 , 12:39 PM

SSKS

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 1,468

always calling, cold jam worst pairs easily... not eevn close

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03-19-2016 , 10:46 AM

#10

igaobrz

stranger

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 1

I'd call it with AQs+, TT+
IMO u played it correctly

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03-19-2016 , 11:24 AM

#11

ChanY

adept

Join Date: Aug 2014 Posts: 1,113

Lets be clear, no sane villain is ever shoving 88 over a 10BB utg limp and utg +1 reraise, that is just never happening. I would range the villain on QQ+ and AK, at best TT+ and AK. I'm not saying its a clear cut fold but I've ran into the nuts with a relatively good hand often enough to sometimes just force myself to go with my gut feeling. Sure utg does fold but we are still left with SBs shove which is just repping such a strong hand and its a quite big shove as well. Losing 2/3 of such a nice stack at this stage of the tournament is not good at all, the spot is at best marginal imo.

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03-20-2016 , 06:57 PM

#12

gizzleduur

enthusiast

Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 83

when you've iso'd vs an EP limp off 10.5bb it probably does make his range somewhat tighter but never tight enough to justify a fold imo. given we have no sample to work with i just click call. if it was a solid reg we'd played 1k+ hands with i might consider a fold because they would know you have a very strong range in that spot which might force them to fold anything less than TT/AK

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03-21-2016 , 10:49 AM

#13

user12345

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 3,737

Iso smaller UTG vs 10bb limp

Its math spot
You're getting 1.5-1 call and have 36% vs JJ/AK, ~45% vs TT/AK and destroy 99/AK or TT/AQ.

So I think its a call vs all except bunch of ubernit regs.

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03-21-2016 , 10:59 AM

#14

jonrubs

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 1,999

Me personally I like overlimping in UTG+2 with everything from 99+AQ+ especially in a turbo, creates a lot of cool dynamics.

As played, not folding.

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03-23-2016 , 08:52 AM

#15

Foxyy

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 632

Thanks for replies all.

Figured it was tight but cant justify folding unless villain literally hadn't played a single hand since sat at the table.

Overlimping could be interesting, although if button opens pretty sure we're still 3bet GII anyway.

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03-23-2016 , 02:53 PM

#16

jonrubs

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 1,999

Quote:

Originally Posted by Foxyy

Ya, I overlimp with the intention of really never folding unless something crazy happens.

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