$235 PLO @ Canterbury Park (Fall Poker Classic)

Villain has been willing to gamble on draws throughout the final table and has re-potted preflop several times in heads-up play.

Hero: 400K
Villain: 440K
Blinds: 10K/15K

Hero raises to 45K with Q9K10
Villain calls

Flop: AK4

Villain checks
Hero bets 60K
Villain raises pot to 210K
Hero?

In-game I am thinking that villain would have re-potted pre with AA or KK so I am taking those out of his range. Should we be jamming here? What range of hands can we assign to the villain?

I'll address your second question first.

Really, trying to put a guy on a range in plo is not the right way to approach it. With over 250,000 starting hand combinations, (as opposed to holdem's 1300,) precisely ranging a guys hand is a fools errand.

Generally speaking instead of thinking about ranges you should be thinking about the types of starting hands a villain will play. The good villain will usually be playing hands that feature big pairs, suited Aces or Kings, connected or partially connected hands hands like 8-9-10-J or 8-10-J-K, or combinations of those elements.

Of course heads up even that goes out the window when you consider that preflop the best possible hands, like AAKK dbl suited or AAJ10 dbl suited, are only a 2-to-1 favorite over absolutely terrible starting hands like Q866 rainbow.

As to your first question, should you be jamming. I"m not sure you can entirely discount AA or KK, he may have chosen to slowplay them after potting weaker hands previously, but it is a non issue. 44 is just as bad for you anyway.

Your worst case scenario is that he has a set or two pair and some of your outs. If he had 44-Js-10s or A-K-Js-10s that would be ugly. He may have a hand like 8-10-J-Q with inferior spades, which would be okay. He could also have air, especially if he has seen you fold to raises postflop recently.

Bottom line is that in the worst case scenario it comes down to the central equation of Omaha. His set versus your draw. If he has a set or top 2 pair and none of your outs he is about a 3-to-2 favorite. If he has some of your outs he might have as much as 3-to-1. If he has some sort of wrap hand without the set or 2 pair you are probably ahead.

So if you think he always has 2 pair or a set here you should probably fold. If you think he is a player who will raise lighter than that, then you should probably call.

Don't play much PLO, but I'll take a stab:

Don't see why V can't have AKxx or 44xx or A4xx the latter combo's "xx" being something like JsTs or two other spades blocking outs to one or both of your draw (and also taking semibluffs out of his range)

Do we ever expect to have better than 12 outs, at best? Is it unreasonable to think we can GII way better than 12 outs, maybe 14 outs, with the title on the line and 30bb deep?

Guess Ay5s3sX or some similar combo is possible, are we doing that great against a combo like that?

I prob check the flop or bet smaller. And prob raise smaller pre too.

I’ve never played a plo tourney but I have played a good bit of Small stakes plo cash with short sub 35bring in buyinss are allowed. Also, Nice score!


Pre: it’s probably right to go smaller esp in a tourney but I dont mind just 3xing.

Flop I think is a pretty clear check imo. I’m also cool with bettin 1 bb or something really small. The only hands we need to protect against are like gut shots and under pairs.
I prefer check because we can still credibly pot the turn to threaten a river shove if he checks to us again OTT. Also we don’t need much protection with our specific holding.

AP I think hero needs to have a plan otf when he bets 60k into an aggro competent player.

The whole analysis was great. Much appreciated.

Spot on. We assume V is ahead most of the time with these hands specifically and then need to decide if we are getting the right price for our draws.

I think the most specific scenario I am not sure about is whether we are getting the right price if V has a semi-bluff hand like 1 pair + flush and/or straight draws?

Best case is obviously a semi-bluff wrap hand with worse draws. This is what we HOPE for but there is no evidence that the V is going to blast off with the trophy on the line.

FWIW Villain made it clear the trophy was very important to him.

I thought I was betting for value OTF! The V's range heads-up is the entire deck.

Not sure if I agree about checking. Curious to hear further defense?

Lol at the people folding this.

board: AsKs4h
Qs9sKcTh 45.14%
AK, 44, JsTs 54.86%

Add more flush draws and it becomes more of a shove.

Hand seems wp, stacking off as played. Vs some villains we couls consider calling and folding if the a pairs but not this guy. He could qjtx and a worse flush, among othwr things.

I think checking back the flop would be a large mistake. Only things i would really consider doing different is smaller pre-flop raise and smaller cbet, but i don't see op sizes as mistakes.

Just recorded this hand as an episode for the Just Hands Poker podcast. The episode should be released in the next week or so and I will re-post it on my twitter when released. Follow @ImaLouigi for updates.

I appreciate all of the feedback. I enjoy working on my game almost as much as playing poker so these discussions are a lot of fun for me.