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Mid-High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of mid-high stakes MTT strategy

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Old 03-11-2017, 09:40 AM   #1
WowPoker
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Gross river spot vs seemingly recreational player

This was about 20 hands into a $44 Bounty Builder. At this point MP+2 had been playing very loose passive. He snap jammed over my check-raise on the river. What do you think his range is? Are we too high up to ever fold here? What do you guys think?

PokerStars - 35/70 Ante 11 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 66.64 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
MP+1: 100.74 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 18.52, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 27)
MP+2: 174.51 BB (VPIP: 57.14, PFR: 5.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
CO: 69.67 BB (VPIP: 19.08, PFR: 15.54, 3Bet Preflop: 7.81, Hands: 152)
Hero (BTN): 64.87 BB
SB: 22.87 BB (VPIP: 38.10, PFR: 23.81, 3Bet Preflop: 37.50, Hands: 21)
BB: 82.53 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
UTG: 66.4 BB (VPIP: 23.81, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
UTG+1: 139.2 BB (VPIP: 76.92, PFR: 23.08, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 13)

9 players post ante of 0.16 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.91 BB) Hero has T J

fold, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 raises to 2 BB, fold, Hero calls 2 BB, SB calls 1.5 BB, BB calls 1 BB

Flop: (9.41 BB, 4 players) 3 J 5
SB checks, BB checks, MP+2 checks, Hero bets 3.1 BB, fold, BB calls 3.1 BB, MP+2 calls 3.1 BB

Turn: (18.71 BB, 3 players) T
BB checks, MP+2 checks, Hero bets 9.36 BB, fold, MP+2 calls 9.36 BB

River: (37.43 BB, 2 players) 5
MP+2 checks, Hero bets 18.71 BB, MP+2 raises to 93.57 BB, ???
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Old 03-11-2017, 01:14 PM   #2
RiverDood
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Re: Gross river spot vs seemingly recreational player

You're right -- that is a disgusting situation. That said:

Villain's range of winning hands includes several 5x hands that we could rule out vs. a more disciplined opponent. A5, K5s, 65s and 55 all are conceivable. Obviously 33 and JJ are in the mix, too. A truly passive opponent might even play QQ+ this way.

In terms of what he might be bluffing with, a failed straight draw with KQ seems most logical. Maybe AdQd or something similar. Beyond that, I'm having a hard time coming up with another losing hand that he takes to the river and wants to jam now. Although anything is possible.

You bet the flop and turn sensibly to make Villain overpay for the right to chase something better with a pair of 5s, or to hope that overcards would improve, but your line also rewards him for slow-playing an overpair or flopped set. I'd love to call against an opponent who's more creative, but our hope of being ahead on this one only makes sense if he's getting clever on the river, which would require your initial read to be wrong.

Fold and take some anti-nausea meds.
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Old 03-12-2017, 10:17 PM   #3
nomalice
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Re: Gross river spot vs seemingly recreational player

fold pre

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Old 03-13-2017, 02:12 AM   #4
Madsaac
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Re: Gross river spot vs seemingly recreational player

Yeah fold pre.

I think you can call, he's doing badly if he calls the flop and turn with a five and good chance he would check raise 33 on the turn. He may have a jack or an overpair.
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Old 03-13-2017, 07:59 AM   #5
jonny.scarre521
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Re: Gross river spot vs seemingly recreational player

what about a different line .. 6bb 3bet pre. big flop bet .. close to pot if he came over the top of that then you cud be pretty sure beat and you lost less bb. just a thought . if your really going to play JTo

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Old 03-13-2017, 02:24 PM   #6
onehandatatime
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Re: Gross river spot vs seemingly recreational player

Too many bb's still to be 3 bet/folding this, most likely just going to get flatted almost always.

I don't hate the flat pre (although folding is ok too), but vs a loose passive player when they make huge bets like this it's usually a good hand. 5x is in their range as is some overpairs like QQ-AA and some sets. Just based on your reads vs this type of opponent I will almost always fold here. If the player was a bad LAG then I'd call it, but passive means passive and when they show strength, folding is never bad.
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Old 03-14-2017, 08:44 AM   #7
scheier
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Re: Gross river spot vs seemingly recreational player

Yes, while you cannot discount a desperate bluff raise on the river, I just don't think it's going to happen often enough to justify a call.
If you had AJ in the same spot, would you call? Because your top two-pair is basically the same as the AJ in this spot. Only difference being a chop if villain has JT himself. But there are only 4 combos of that left and you only chop with these.
The preflop call could be debated, but I don't mind it at all that deep, since you have position. A preflop 3-bet could always find a justification too, but jonny's suggestion seems results oriented (but I'm not sure I read the suggested line well). I would play small with this hand.
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