Is it enough to discount better hands to go for it all?

Vanilla 700-man MTT, getting late. I get to the river with the nut flush and get raised. Folding is out of the question but I wonder "How am I even beat? Who checks back 2p and sets here? And if he has a worse flush he's never folding with 19bb behind so all in!"

Sensible or nah?

3x open was bigger than usual so I flatted.


PokerStars - 1400/2800 Ante 350 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): 104.96 BB
UTG: 37.94 BB (VPIP: 29.09, PFR: 19.51, 3Bet Preflop: 14.75, Hands: 167)
CO: 14.18 BB (VPIP: 23.53, PFR: 21.79, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 88)
BTN: 47.17 BB (VPIP: 15.79, PFR: 10.53, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19)
SB: 31.63 BB (VPIP: 15.38, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)

5 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.12 BB) Hero has J A

fold, fold, BTN raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (7.12 BB, 2 players) 5 4 9
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: (7.12 BB, 2 players) 5
Hero bets 2.99 BB, BTN calls 2.99 BB

River: (13.11 BB, 2 players) 2
Hero bets 8.78 BB, BTN raises to 22 BB, Hero raises to 98.84 BB and is all-in

Wow if he folded a flush what a nice bluff spot!

Nice hand ... btw.

He doesn’t have a flush he has 22

This is actually a fascinating spot. You're correct in the fact that villain rarely will have boats here (maybe 99 sometimes, but 54/55/44 would mostly be c-betting flop). The problem is that we're not positive of that, and if villain has more sets here than we think, he might literally fold all of his flushes (assuming that we'd always call flushes on a paired board) and just call when we're beat. Villain may not even raise flushes on the river all the time either.

I would guess villain raises river and then calls off with K-high flushes enough to justify the jam, but I would guess it's close.

The main question, is he calls with K,Q J high flushes, if yes then
the second thing he can fold even 22 babyfh...
interesting spot indeed
You probably freerolling by shoving
He can fold 22,flushes
And he can fold 22 and call flushes as well!

Could it be? The triple merge I heard tall tales of

I think flatting pre is fine. Without any real info on V, I think river is a call. Damage limitation if we lose but a healthy enough gain if we win.

Perfect donk story
Open BTN 3x with 22
Call turn probe w/ underpair
Hit boat and got b/3b-jammed by nut flush

Is it really such a donk story? 3x raise pre trying to steal blinds. Calling a small turn bet with what could feasibly be the best hand in this situation - I’ve seen ace high win such hands many times. Was bearers bet on the turn a donk bet? Because his hand is weaker than 22.

I would say that 22 played the hand well, except I think river is a jam.

Well, he called. Results:

If I'm V I'm probably putting sets in my flop check-back range for balance, because I will actually be checking back this flop a lot.

For that reason, it's probably a call on the river rather than a shove. Tough spot though.

I think it's good with 99 due to removal but not sure theres enough upside when this shallow with other sets given the missed value. Basically I think you probably should be able to protect ~40bb with tons of one pair and I'd be more likely to open up turns for overpot with portions of my range when deeper, those overbets being the sweet upside.