i don't think i (or most people) do this anywhere near enough, so i'm trying to find good spots to do it.

100 people left, 60-something paid.

villain is 14/13 with 5.4% 3b over about 200 hands from previous tournaments. i have been at table 15 hands and running 27/20, have raise-folded once, but if he has previous stats on me like i have on him they are probably quite nitty.

do we likey?


Full Tilt Poker $75,000 Guarantee No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t300/t600 Blinds + t75 - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (UTG): t22327 M = 14.88
UTG+1: t6114 M = 4.08
MP1: t20996 M = 14.00
MP2: t21215 M = 14.14
CO: t5544 M = 3.70
BTN: t3420 M = 2.28
SB: t11145 M = 7.43
BB: t4796 M = 3.20

Pre Flop: (t1500) Hero is UTG with 8 Q
Hero raises to t1300, 1 fold, MP1 calls t1300, 5 folds

Flop: (t4100) 2 T 4 (2 players)
Hero bets t2400, MP1 calls t2400

Turn: (t8900) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets t4545, MP1 calls t4545

River: (t17990) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets t14007 all in

you don't really rep much, wouldnt be shocked if you got called by middle pairs here

well i think i'm repping quite a lot of combos, including QQ-AA, 22, TT , 44, 55, A5, 65s, 54s and 33, most of which i'd probably play exactly the same way. even so, it doesn't really matter that much if we're repping a narrow range if our bluffing range is going to be almost non existent, no?

if you jam in QQ-AA then this play becomes significantly better but at the same time if this is working as a bluff than shoving in QQ-AA is probably bad for value

You don't have alot of 5s in your range pre and your most likely one (55) probably isnt betting the turn.

He might think you're a nit and never bluffing so you have a good idea but with your HEM stats if he's aware of this at all he might find enough of a hero inside him to make the call

I dont see how your bluff range is nonexistant here. Any spades/some ax barrels and i think you get looked up too much on this river. I dont really like turn bet either

I don't really like the open much at all you have to call 3 people's shoves....assuming this guy is competent I actually think his flatting range is pretty strong pre especially given the stacks behind (and that you think your stats are nitty).

I think you get looked up here too often for this to be good and I'd probably just c/f the turn too

This

OTT he has committed ~ 2/5 of his stack and he will be getting close to 3-1 on a call, so I think the only thing u r betting him off is some kind of 10x ss hand and even that might look u up.

I'd just fold pre with the stacksizes behind u, but if u have to open it, I'd b/f flop and c/f turn.

And I really think Mullen is right when he says that a lot of competent players will be flatting v strong hands in this spot, since there are a lot of shovable stacks behind him, u r opening UTG and u r both fairly deep.

unless the table is running super tight im usually folding this hand pf.
one thing i think your forgetting is that hes proven himself to be quite strong as well
i dont think hes trying to float you off w some cheese after all the strength youve shown.
so think the hand is kinda spewy/bad. sorry.
as played i bet otf and prob just shut down. i try to be in position when im trying crazy **** lke this

just going off this "14/13" its bad

he's not flatting enough pre to make 3 barreling profitable here, i dont think he folds much of his range at all on the river.

fold preflop! board is very dry. unless he was calling flop and turn bets with 2 overcards or a 10, he will most likely call river

I think the open UTG is spewy and costly. The flop is fine but the turn card is not scary and would be a great time to shut it down. I think the three barbell is going to end your tourney or cripple you in these spots a lot.

i dont like the open at all with so many shortstacks on the table.

flop std. you have air. bet it to take the pot down. also a good texture to cbet.

turn/river. either tripple barrel or c/f turn. it depends on the villain. unless i know that the bluff will work c/f turn ainec.

looks good

yerp

now its confirmed bad

this is absurdly bad on every street except maybe flop

first, you open a trash hand (trash given 8 people have cards) utg when half the table has 10bb and you are committed to calling it off with nothing vs their reship ranges.

then, you try to bluff a bladed setminer reg who never floats

then, you pick a spot where there are so few combos of **** he could reasonably fold

even with QQ this is almost borderline bad postflop

but TREE barrels baby! Oh look, its 4:20pm.

*bubbling noise*

"I'm sorry, what did you say?"

zedveron,
lot of posters better than me in this thread and against this line, but I think I'm in your camp here with this one even with the stats on this villain. You are playing the hand like you would any over pair to the board plus sets. You either have the top of your range (which does include a couple of hands) or nothing. River bet only needs to work slightly more than 1 time out of 3 for this to be profitable and I think this is the case here.

I wouldnt do this but maybe once at the same table but this seems like a good time to try. Just don't act too quickly on any street or too long on any street. Openning Q8s utg is meh, but might be ok given table dynamics plus bubble is approaching.

fair points. in terms of the open, we're approaching the $ and the people with 10bb are going to have a pretty narrow reship range vs an utg raise and while we'll be committed to call them, the reason we'll be committed is because it will be a +EV call, no?

also, how do you deduce from his stats that he's a bladed set miner reg who never floats? i don't disagree, i'm probably just not using stats properly on guys like this.

i thought most of his range was 22-99, most of the combos of which aren't sets, so i thought he could definitely be stubborn enough to call turn with those hands but fold river. maybe he's not calling turn enough with those hands for river shove to be good? or maybe he doesn't have those hands enough for betting turn to be good.