Winamax 50 euros turbos 8max 170 players

5 left

1st: 1800 euros +150 euros tickets
2nd: 1200 euros
3rd: 900 euros
4th: 750 euros
5th: 560 euros

BB: 15/30k

UTG (vilain): 20bb
CO (hero): 9bb
BTN: 0.1bb (!!!!)
sb: 5bb
bb:12bb

UTG (vilain) CL is very aggro and seems to understand ICM pressure etc..
UTG snapp shoves. Hero is CO with 1010. I paused for a sec knowing that getting busto on that hand having a 0.1bb left oppo and us being 3rd would be a total ICM disaster.
I paused and thought that even if he s shoving 22+ and J10+, vs hands like QJ i am only flipping and my hand could be vulnerable.
I thought abt ICM folding but told myself i was going for the win . We were crushing his preflop shoving range and were in a sick +EV spot to ship the whole thing.

I might not have given it enough thoughts tho.
because even now i m not sure about what i should have considered the most before making any decision.

The fact that there s one player with 0.1bb left and one with 5bb left which translates to an almost certain 210 euros ladder gain and a potential total of 340 ladder?

or

The fact that my hand is crushing utg CL shoving range and that it is simply too strong to fold even in that Fckd up ICM situation because i am in such a great spot to take over the CL and to ship the whole enchilada?

Thoughts?

Pretty sure you fold even QQ here, maybe even KK. I know many players who would fold without even checking their cards. Definitely folding TT.

So the possible double up and the effective strength of my hand is not even something to consider.

So there were actually NOT two options (1. considering ICM/ 2. considering the possibility of doubling up and being the CL).

But only one option because of the 0.1bb left and the 5bb left stacks?

FML i totally punted that right?

no ante? so bb is not all-in? his stack is 1.1xbb then and sb 5.5xbb?

Ante is 4k

all the stacks are after the ante are taken.

after sb/bb and antes:

BTN sits on 0.1bb
and BB has 5bb behind (1bb is in play)

Whts ur thoughts on the hand?

Sorry glanced at it and saw it incorrectly. Has button folded last few hands (in the blinds?!) or he has lost the hand before? If he has one ante left then I guess he can fold again. I'll do the math later.

Cheers and thanks for your time.

Button (0,1bb) has been folding his self to death... from the very start of the FT

I ran it through ICMIZER:

JJ is a slight call, QQ-AA is a snap, and TT is a fold.

It wasn't a punt though, it was closer than I thought it would be. You made a slightly -EV play.

However, that can be adjusted slightly if his range was even a bit wider than I inputted. Based on your description of V it sounds like you did OK either way.

Didnt have access to ICMIZER from my job office today.

Thanks a lot for your valuable input and feedback. really appreciate it.

Ok, that wasnt as clear cut as i thought. So wasnt a massive punt but still was a -EV play which i wont make again :/

Still felt pretty bad tho...

Cheers and glgl

Weird question, is it really +190 pay jump from 5th to 4th and +150 from 4th to 3rd?

As played I think I fold, but guess there's some arguments for calling if we think there's a lot of value in being the big stack with 18BB.

Fold. If you play well here and get head's up with villain by then you might have more chips. Even if he knocks out the small stacks for you and gets to 25BB, if you knock out the other stack with 9BB you'd have 21BB. You have a good road to 3rd or 2nd here so why risk it in marginal spot? let the bully have his way for now and get him later.

I think you are right and i fckd up the precise numbers but the whole concept of ICM punting stays the same. Even if the payouts were obvsly a bit different than the one i gave.

Cheers tho

+1 Your reasoning seems so obvious to me that i cant figure why the *** i went for such a punt. At least i wont do it again

Thanks for your input.

Appreciate it

Fold

No it's ok, call it

http://www.holdemresources.net/nashi...b=1&ante=0.125

UTG 63.8%, 22+ Kx+ Q2s+ Q5o+ J2s+ J7o+ T2s+ T7o+ 93s+ 97o+ 84s+ 87o 74s+ 76o 63s+ 53s+ 43s
CO 7.1%, 88+ ATs+ AJo+


You are ok even if he is pushing only 30% ie half the above range and you said he was loose. Need to have ~62% and higher it seems. You have it even vs 25% range.

Plus there is the chance the little guy calls too (which is the correct move for him with most hands if not everything) and you are both eliminated but come ahead of him anyway.

The pay out is not so steep to be a concern really. Go for the win! If you win the hand you are higher than he is now even lol! Easily come 2nd and higher then.

If you call, the 0.1 BB guy should fold AA, I am pretty sure.

I would shrug Call TT here.

Fold and print 200€

I think you have the wrong assumptions about the button. You have him calling 100% of the time. If we fold, I believe even AA is a fold for him.

No its important for the little guy to call because he is forced all in next hand anyway so now he stands to experience the greatest rise in his stack from 0.1 plus the 0.1 times 2 +0.125*5=0.825bb to 0.925bb if he wins. That then can become 4 later.

You are thinking that he stands to win 190E by waiting from 560 to 750 but in reality this only happens a fraction of the time that hero is eliminated here that is probably only 40% or less if he called (he must have good equity to do so anyway ie over 60% needed) and at the cost of the little guy never really recovering to see another day. First of all if the guy risks and wins to go to 0.925bb he gets 4-5 more hands to see during which he can go even higher or see others go out. The door for higher prizes opens with a victory here. All he gets next time is 0.5 back if he survives vs probably 2+ others anyway often.

If he stays out here he maybe wins 40% of the time the 190 extra plus corrections but the chances for anything more from a miracle recovery go dramatically down and rest only on the next hand now.

With even a 40% range the little guy (if you do not buy the 100% range) has 25% chance to survive plus the chance the other gets eliminated also then. With 100% range he has 22.5%

I trust the results i linked because they take all this into account i think properly.


If we folded the little guy would be ecstatic to have AA or KK or QQ among many others even . He would have had 75-85% even to go to 0.9bb given what else can happen after him.

Do not underestimate the value of going higher than only one pay rise some fraction of the time he participates. He is all in next hand anyway.

In any case TT has great equity vs the proper loose villain range (65% equity then vs a 60% range )and even vs a 25% range (62%). Those are good solid chances that take you to first place or second place when it works very often (over 60% it works) and secure easily at least 3rd. You have to go for it because its not a very significant pay rise here. Winning is important.

My rough calculations show that he needs to win the pot more than 50% of the time, assuming the short stack wins 60% and that both blinds fold. His equity of folding is 688. His equity of calling and winning is 777. His equity of calling and losing is of course 560.

I think that is about 60% to win. So, I guess AA is a call. I doubt KK is. Maybe someone who knows how to use the ICMizer can do a better job.

If the original hero has folded, the short stack should of course call.

BTW, I am in agreement with your main conclusion. I am not folding TT here as original hero.

I understand that it could be a +EV rejam. Regarding the objective ranges of V.
But isnt that spot a testimony of the limits of GTO?
I mean, if we fold, even if the correct play would be to call, we are avoiding variance in a spot where a 0.1bb will be forced all in the very next hand and so on.
Therefore, isnt that spot, imho, an example of when to deviate from GTO strat?

I just ran some sims, and HRC says we should call 2,3% = TT+ (+0,26) so bottom of our calling range (since we called, BU should only call KK+ lol)
So yeah, close call, but like i said above i would fold since BU will call any two (at least he should if we fold)

Y'all can't be serious about folding for 200 here when the difference between 2nd and 1st is 600 right? Make me feel old, only 29 but stepped away from poker after u.s closed down just getting back to it (i.e. low number of posts needed to recreate username). We played for the win in my day. I could let 88 go here. Calling 99+ AQo+. Still have a lot to relearn though.