No Limit Hold'em Tournament T3,000/T6,000
Buy-in: Nightly $33 - $7.5K Gtd [Deep] (86354423-1)
Merge Network
7 players
Formatted by pokercopilot.com: Poker HUD for Mac and Windows

Stacks:
UTG - UTG (T260,927)
UTG+1 - UTG+1 (T203,297)
MP - MP (T91,011)
CO - CO (T272,378)
BTN - Hero (T226,544)
SB - SB (T132,158)
BB - BB (T98,685)

Preflop: (T13,200, 7 players) Hero is BTN with Q A
UTG raises to T13,999, 3 folds, Hero calls T13,999, 1 fold, BB calls T7,999

Flop: A K A (T49,197, 3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets T15,555, Hero calls T15,555, 1 fold

Turn: 3 (T80,307, 2 players)
UTG bets T25,677, Hero calls T25,677

River: 3 (T131,661, 2 players)
UTG checks, [b][color=red]Hero?

Is it crazy to want to check back here?

UTG was running 20/17/6 over 100 hands. I don't think he's a reg. After thinking about this situation over a bit afterwards, I couldn't think of any good reason to bet the river. Villain's range seems extremely limited to AK, AJ and KK. I think most players will never double-barrel KQ for value here. So I felt by value betting I'm hoping to get called by only 3 combos of KK, and KK should be able to c/f here anyways. Thoughts?

nice hand. You're probably not gonna get called by worse, and definitely getting called/raised by better, or chopping at best.

I think checking back is reasonable simply because you gain no value by checking and could lose value by betting.

No way value betting the river is a bad idea but checking is wrong, if you lose with that hand then its just a cooler. Bet and see if you can get a K to call.

just bet rly small otr

I'm worried it took 4 posts to get to this.
40-45k seems good.

still dont see the point. I dont think a K calls there

Ok, I wasn't going to post what I did, but since you suggested exactly what I did, I'm curious what you guys do now. Here's what happened next:

River: 3 (T131,661, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets T43,333, UTG raises to T86,666,

This can only be AK, right? If someone was trying to push us off a chop, they would just c/jam or jam outright imo.

He doesnt rep KK well so its ok to check back since you cant have AK.

Yes his line is consistent w AK where he induces and expect you to bluff river or vb small for him and then crai.

Most posters advocate std exploits they were using in 2012 w/o putting much thought into it.

If he really has AK he should uninstall pokers.
Can't fold this.

Exactly

Of course he cant fold it, I don't think that was the question though. He was wondering whether to bet OTR, some say yes, some say no.

beat by 4 realistic combo's of ak and one possible combo of 33 while 2 potential fd's missed and we are wondering if we have to vbet river..

So we have bluffing range otr but he should never have AK.
And smth is missed in this equation.

Call tell him wp in chat when he rolls over ak

He hardly ever has better. Just because he doesn't call with worse isn't an excuse to not bet a boat. Go really small if needed.

As played do a mixture of calling and folding, but mostly calling.

Yep, same thoughts! Btw, this

Seriously, late stage mtt, ok... Should we talk about this hand in a NL100+ context, superdeep (200bb+), then I could be a little bit concerned... But not here with an average stack of 30 BB! If it's AK, then be zen... And put your monitor out of the window.

I would raise flop. Sry no input on as played. We stack his Ax and charge his draws. With ops line he gets to the river waaaay too cheaply. People usually don't bet Kx twice so max your value vs draw/Ax

Can you expand on this? Here's his play: raise preflop, standard c-bet, keep-em-in bet on the turn, check-raise river. I would play AK just like that at least some of the time. Are you saying he has to check the turn or something? or he's supposed to bet 53.2% on the river? Please explain.

Okay I take it back. I missed how small his c-bet was. Still, why would you want him to quit?

He cant get his Stack in after betting Flop and turn unless he overbets river and he is not maximizing value vs draws.