Hey guys!

It's been some time, but I had a hand which I'm having problems to analyse and an advise from experienced ppl would be much appreciated

This is the FT of Sunday $109 The Bigger with the following payments:

1 - $22k
2 - $16k
3 - $11k
4 - $8k
5 - $6k
6 - $4k
7 - $3k

Villain is the chip leader who often takes advantage of his stack. In the previous hand he tried to outplay the opponent by overbetting the river with air and folded to his all in. In normal circumstances I wouldn't even ask, as it's a standard hand, however here there is a little different situation, as this is the FT with some $ involved and I have quite nice stack.

What is our plan for pre-flop, turn and river play? Do we ever consider ICM and play it in a different way than we usually do?

I'm sorry but HH converter brings me the error message, so I manually adjusted the hand.

Seat #4 is the button

Seat 2: (1213676 in chips)
Seat 3: (446317 in chips)
Seat 4 (Button): Villain (2262511 in chips)
Seat 5 (SB): (405830 in chips)
Seat 6 (BB): Hero (1367658 in chips)
Seat 8: (947673 in chips)
Seat 9: (736335 in chips)

Seat 2: posts the ante 3750
Seat 3: posts the ante 3750
Seat 4: posts the ante 3750
Seat 5: posts the ante 3750
Seat 6: posts the ante 3750
Seat 8: posts the ante 3750
Seat 9: posts the ante 3750

Seat 5: posts small blind 15000
Hero: posts big blind 30000

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero[Jh Jd]

Seat 8: folds
Seat 9: folds
Seat 2: folds
Seat 3: folds
Villain: raises 37500 to 67500
SB: folds
Hero (BB): ???

Jeez I had almost the same situation re: stacks and payouts on a live FT recently and just open shoved 40BB into CL with QQ. Didn’t want to go to the streets v CL and feel obliged to fold all Kxx Axx boards. Ofc better cEV options, but v interested to see comments here and not suggesting shove is correct.

Probably, defend and usually call down. That way, you avoid big ICM issues and let him spew.

Flatting here is going to be a winning play but 3B is much better. As the small stacks are not tiny (over 10BBs) there's no reason to play super tight here, and all significant addtl money is in top 5 spots.

Raise to somewhere around 275K and obv willing to call off a shove which would come from many Ax, lower pairs etc.

I go with 3b/gii but wouldn't knock a jam. Jammed 99 in a somewhat similar spot but JJ is tangibly better imo. Just saw a Rangeconverter solution demonstating 40bb rejams with hands like 99, TT, AKo, AQo so it's not like some outrageous play.

Jamming is better than folding, but I doubt it is better than 3b/gii or defend with a hand this strong. It turns the hand partly face up and creates ICM issues. Villain's button raising range is so weak. Making a huge push makes it easy for him to play correctly.

3b big and call it off, but dont think you'll get 4b that often but plenty of flats where you Will a massive range advantage

@eggs - how do shove, flat and 3!/gii stack up in comparative $EV ?

what if V was crushing and had 5mil instead of 2.2mil and could exert even more icm pressure post ?

v interested to see that Rangeconverter has some open shoves at 40BB

Idk if it matters that much. I’d do a decent amount of calling pre here and be feeling like taking it to the streets w basically my strongest possible call bb pre hand
3b also gonna make money but it sucks a lot to get stacked aipf

I think the better line is to 3bet to 250K-280K... If he calls, which is very posible, then check all the way. Is very unlikely he bets on the flop, but probably he Will bet turn... then you jam, unless there are two overcards on the board. If he do not bet on turn, then on the river you call his 300K-400K bet.... Is like going to half all in instead of a full all in... but with almost no fold equity... but JJ is a hand that is way ahead of his bet/call preflop range...

IDK if this is right or wrong but I pretty consistently would be 3b/gii if he shoves at me preflop.

If he calls and I end up with overpair, I'm leading like half pot and calling shoves over the top. If I'm seeing A or K OTF I'm hating life obv but might call a bet depending on feel and sizing OTF.

Shoving feels wrong as I think we miss value long run with a very strong hand against a much weaker range.

Calling feels wrong as we're not getting more money in with a pretty premium hand against a V with a weak range with a lot of chips at a time we need to be accruing chips.

Excellent post OP. Nice run.

Posters need to pay better attention to stack sizes. OOP players (who is OP) is 2CL facing 1CL with three stacks in the vicinity of 50% or below OOP player's stack.

IP player is exerting an UNBELIEVABLE amount of ICM pressue in this spot (in fact I'm pretty sure he can open ATC or very close to ATC here).

3betting any combos besides AKo, AKs, and AA and, without specifying further, assorted very infrequently mixed combos for balance, is really, really bad.

45bb 3b ship is ok specifically w/ AK since IP player needs to fold basically everything except TT+, AK so AK, blocking so much of IPs calling range makes for the ideal ship at that depth (prob getting 95% folds from IP player). But that should demonstrate just how much of a shitty ICM mistake shoving any other combo is: we need the combo that gets IP to fold 95% of the time before we overcome the ICM effects.

You just have to be content defending here though, and for that to be the case with basically every hand you're not just mucking (except AKs/o and AA)

You also better be content with just folding like 50% of starting combos pre (in the cEV case you can obv defend close to ATC) and just giving the guy his 2.5bb that's in the pot pre and moving on. It's almost unbelievable how much ICM pressure he can exert on you--kind of a very unlucky FT draw for OP if you ask me.

Flat and hit a jack.

I would fold most flops. I think this a good spot to set mine. Given his stack he is going to continuation bet. Probably double barrell given description.

Easy to get away and preserve your stack with a flop fold, but if you spike the jack, you could become the chipleader of this tournament. Think it is worth the $37,500.

Playing this way you turn your jacks into 6's, but you don't really mess up your chances to get top 3 prizes.

Assuming the chip distributions are CL>>>>>>>2CL>>>>>everyone else (so OP and the BTN are both well ahead of everyone else BUT BTN is way ahead of even OP), then we kinda have to mostly flat even KK. It's just such a huge disaster than even KK are not high-equity enough against GII range (which is wide for IP vs 45bb ship--22+, AKs) and I do not recall FE figures from sim 1 (OPs parameters) to sim 2 (This sim is sim 2) but I imagine IP can call off much much lighter in Sim 2 than than in sim 1 which makes shove 45bb no longer viable for AK in sim 2-even AK combos are pure flats)

I think we also have to fold even more of our BB, like even AXo combos below ATo are no longer slamdunk defends. IP can exert so much ICM pressure post it's ridiculous.

I think the solution significantly changes if the distribution is something like CL>>>>>>>>>>everyone else (so CL is far away the CL even above OP).

Cheers @eggs

Wd OP one of the most interesting threads and unexpected PIO solutions

There's actually inflection point in the first sim I ran whereby in that sim we actually have enough chips relative to him (the CL) such that our 45bb ships w/ AK generate enough FE to justify said 45bb ship.

Now having run a THIRD sim (this configuration is CL>>>>>>>>everyone else, so OP's stack much smaller in this sim and much closer to other players not the CL) I see in this configuration we can 3b NAI a bit wider and defend a bit wider too which isn't surprising because in this configuration stacks are much closer (CL notwithstanding) hence the $EVs of each player are much closer hence it's not as much of a disaster for us to get stacked in this configuration hence we can 3bNAI wider and defend wider too.

We also no longer can put the fear of god into the opener in this third configuration, hence we can no longer ship AK for 45bb when its CL>>>>>>>everyone else (And everyone else has similar stacks) because we no longer get those precious few bips of FE we'd otherwise get in the two previous scenarios (OPs original, and CL>>>>OP>>>>>>>Everyone else) needed to drive the $EV of ship45bb above other options.

I agree. That is what I said initially defend is best. Certainly not set mining. Generally call down.

Yup you got it 100% right.

Problem with calling down:

Depends on how many barrels. If you call preflop, pot is $180,000.

Hero's stack is $1,330,000.

Flop, half pot bet, $90K.

Hereo's stack 1,240,000.

Turn bet 180k. Hero's stack 1060000

River bet, 360,000, hero's stack 700,000

That assumes villain fires three bullets at half size bet. Depending on hand, river or turn might be a bigger bet.

So, assume, three half size pot bets. We go from 2nd to 5th, with no real distance between 7th if we lose. Seems like a lot of risk.

If we set mine, and play like 6's, we are still 2nd chip position.

I see an easy ladder to 4th, with a competitive stack where we can do some damage if we stay out of harm's way.

I wonder what the right sizing for Villain is when we flat and see a dry flop like Q72. Is he supposed to just bet small, 30% pot with his entire range? Or is he supposed to play to threaten Hero's stack, with a threat of all in by the river?

If I was Villain, I'd generally go small on flop, and bigger (relative to pot) on most turns. I am not sure just how much ICM pressure I want to exert, when a small flop bet gets the job done most of the time anyway.

I faced a similar ICM problem with this setup this week; only it was the bubble not the FT. Villain, a maniac, opened the button and I had 26BB and JJ on the BB, 3 off the money.

I shoved. Probably ICM suicide...

I think he needs to bet half pot to give him better options on the turn.

30% is a fine stab, but allows the jacks an easier call knowing that it is unlikely that he will have to play for stack. Half on the flop allows 75% on the turn, which means river bomb is very likely. Certainly, villain will have to reevaluate turn if we flat 30% or 50%.

Villian was not described as maniac. Also, tournaments are top heavy for top 3. I think your shove with jacks was an easier decision than where hero plays this. I don't think you committed ICM suicide. I think hero has strong chance of making top three by playing this one passively.

I'm guessing that for you to have realistic chance at a top 3 finish you are going to have to make a big pot somewhere. Jacks against a maniac's raise on the button seems like a good of a spot as most.

Yeah, I see your point, but Villain doesn't know hero has JJ. 30% pot will work against a lot of heroes range, and he can size up the turn to threaten stacks...