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FT 4 left, shove decision. FT 4 left, shove decision.

06-22-2018 , 09:06 AM
It was live session, buy-in €50+€10, re-buy on first 3 levels, one add-on before level#4, 6th places paid, prize structure:
1st €3300
2nd €2400
3rd €1300
4th €1000

4 players left, I had ~22BB stack and got JJ on CO. Players on BTN and SB both had me covered and I didn't have a lot info about them except of BTN seems like solid and accurate player who and SB seems like LAG. Player on BB had ~10BB stack.

So I shoved JJ thinking that if I raise, Big Blind calls with any two and probably will shove after seeing the flop(very standard play).

I am wondering if it was an optimal play?

Spoiler:
SB called me with ATo and caught T OTF and T OTR. I finished the tournament
FT 4 left, shove decision. Quote
06-22-2018 , 11:05 AM
Why would you think it is a bad thing for us to hold JJ and for BB to call any two pre and shove any flop? We print money if he does this.

Jamming 22x with JJ seems like a waste of a premium hand.
FT 4 left, shove decision. Quote
06-22-2018 , 11:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Black Aces 518
Why would you think it is a bad thing for us to hold JJ and for BB to call any two pre and shove any flop? We print money if he does this.

Jamming 22x with JJ seems like a waste of a premium hand.
For example if BB holds any of Qx, Kx, Ax, suited cards, connectors and sees the flop that gives him a pair better than ours or gutshot or OESD or flush draw and shoves then it's bad for us...I played this game from BB perspective many many times and won a lot of hands like this..
FT 4 left, shove decision. Quote
06-22-2018 , 11:13 AM
What % of time do you think hands with one overcard or hands like 86s outflop JJ?

It is not bad for us if he shoves a gutshot, OESD or flush draw on the flop.

I would be happy to play this game with you any time you want for money. We each get $500, I get JJ and you get a random hand. We both put in $100, then a flop comes, and you decide to jam your $400 or fold, and I decide to call or not. We can play as long as you like.
FT 4 left, shove decision. Quote
06-22-2018 , 12:45 PM
What Black Aces is implying is that if you know the BB’s plan is to jam any two, your decision should almost always be to call, no matter the board. Basically it’s the same situation as when you go all in with Js and the BB flats off with any 2 (which is terrible for the flatter obv).

22bb is still a good size to open. Most players say you should start all in/fold mode below 20bb, but imo it’s silly to pick an arbitrary stack size. I think it’s an easy open with the Js, an easier flat if a short stack jams (tougher if 3bet by a deeper stack, but Js is still strong enough to go with in this spot), and an easy call otf vs a stop n’ go move. If you hold AJ, the flop jam puts you in a tougher spot, but you have to remember that if villain is planning this preflop, his equity doesn’t change magically when the flop comes just because he made a large bet.

Lastly, you’re probably being results oriented here. The result of the hand doesn’t matter, only the way it was played. In fact, the guy made a pretty bad call imo and you got it in substantially ahead. What Black Aces is touching on also is that though the BB may win some hands, Poker is a long term game, so doing the correct thing = winning, even if you lose short term.
FT 4 left, shove decision. Quote
06-22-2018 , 12:53 PM
^yep, this
FT 4 left, shove decision. Quote
06-22-2018 , 03:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by goldFishshark
What Black Aces is implying is that if you know the BB’s plan is to jam any two, your decision should almost always be to call, no matter the board. Basically it’s the same situation as when you go all in with Js and the BB flats off with any 2 (which is terrible for the flatter obv).

22bb is still a good size to open. Most players say you should start all in/fold mode below 20bb, but imo it’s silly to pick an arbitrary stack size. I think it’s an easy open with the Js, an easier flat if a short stack jams (tougher if 3bet by a deeper stack, but Js is still strong enough to go with in this spot), and an easy call otf vs a stop n’ go move. If you hold AJ, the flop jam puts you in a tougher spot, but you have to remember that if villain is planning this preflop, his equity doesn’t change magically when the flop comes just because he made a large bet.

Lastly, you’re probably being results oriented here. The result of the hand doesn’t matter, only the way it was played. In fact, the guy made a pretty bad call imo and you got it in substantially ahead. What Black Aces is touching on also is that though the BB may win some hands, Poker is a long term game, so doing the correct thing = winning, even if you lose short term.
Thanks for the detailed reply! I understand the concept of +EV decisions on a long run, but yeah, I was really focused on winning as much money as possible and shoved to prevent bad beat by playing with BB. Ironically bad beat happened after SB made this terrible call . Anyways I agree that opening 2BB or something was probably more optimal play.
FT 4 left, shove decision. Quote
06-22-2018 , 03:17 PM
By the way -- I put the hand into HRC and here is the result of calculations with ICM model applied http://hands.holdemresources.net/?id=wg6rknfir1o8 that includes JJ to +EV shove.
FT 4 left, shove decision. Quote
06-22-2018 , 03:27 PM
Of course it is +EV to shove JJ here, but it is WAY MORE +EV to raise it instead.
FT 4 left, shove decision. Quote
06-22-2018 , 03:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Black Aces 518
Of course it is +EV to shove JJ here, but it is WAY MORE +EV to raise it instead.
right...raise displayed as +0.79 but shove is +0.44...how do you know what it's not only more, but a WAY more without using any software?!
FT 4 left, shove decision. Quote
06-22-2018 , 04:07 PM
Experience and common sense?

When we shove 22 BB with JJ, all of the hands that beat us call, and the huge majority of hands we beat fold. The worst kind of bet that one can make in poker is one that gets called by all better and folds out all worse.

When we raise 2.2x with JJ, we still lose to the hands that beat us at the same rate, but we actually make money off of more hands that we beat, because they try to re-steal (can't resteal if the person shoves obv), or they 3bet for value, not realizing how strong we are, or they do something really dumb like call any two from the BB and shove all flops.

For example, most opponents would have folded the AT to a 22x shove, but would have either called or 3b to a normal raise. Regardless of results, we love getting money in from AT when we hold JJ.
FT 4 left, shove decision. Quote
06-22-2018 , 04:17 PM
Raise, stupid to jam 22 bbs here. Give your opponents some sort of thought of fold equity. You never will be 3bet by worse hands here?

Sure jamming 22bbs works, but I feel like raise calling is a much more optimal play long run. As played, bad luck. You want a hand like that to call.
FT 4 left, shove decision. Quote
06-22-2018 , 06:29 PM
Thanks everyone for comments on this thread. Super informative and helpful. This forum is the best NLH resource ever.
FT 4 left, shove decision. Quote
06-23-2018 , 01:12 PM
BTW - from BB perspective, let's say that he shoves hands he has to shove with 10BB stack and calls the rest of them, calling range is something like
OTF he checks if he hits TP, FD, GS or OESD and shoves if that's the case and fold otherwise, here is the screenshot of CREV tree:

So, it seems that OTF game like this is +EV on a long run for BB.
FT 4 left, shove decision. Quote
06-23-2018 , 07:45 PM
You have CO calling a 100% range. How can a range of any two with gutshot/OESD/flush draw or top pair which is usually less than JJ have 57% equity against JJ? Obv they cannot.
FT 4 left, shove decision. Quote
06-24-2018 , 06:23 AM
okay here is more realistic picture..BB does not play against JJ, he plays against CO open range. Let's say CO raises 2.22BB with the following hands

In response BB either shoves with these hands:

and CO calls with 100% of his range
or BB calls with the some of remaining hands like this:

and OTF he makes the following decision:
- if he has TP, FD, OESD or GS he shoves and CO calls with the whole range
- otherwise BB folds
the EV(in chips) calculation gives the following:

the entire game like this is -EV for BB, right. On average he loses ~2400 chips. If he just shoves with the recommended range and folds otherwise he loses only 1445 chips on average

So, yep, you are right, the BB's strategy to call with hands that he does not shove pre but jams OTF with GS/FD/TP/OESD is not that good at all...
FT 4 left, shove decision. Quote
06-26-2018 , 09:55 AM
[QUOTE=Black Aces 518;53967467]

or they do something really dumb like call any two from the BB and shove all flops.

[QUOTE]



Lols This
FT 4 left, shove decision. Quote

      
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