Quote:
Originally Posted by poloplaya1414
I think I lean towards betting flop with the read that BTN is a station. I'd size up a bit to more like 9K though. Against more aggressive regs, I'd check most if not all the time.
As played, I like the turn check. I would just jam the river in first place. If he has a flush, so be it, but force him to make some hard decisions with hands like AcJx and don't let him put us in spots like this.
After we do use this sizing, it's a tough spot, but I think we have to call. I assume we bet most of our flushes on the turn. Maybe check back a few nut flushes, but that can't be that many combos. I assume we're betting river with this sizing with QJs, JJ, QQ, maybe KK/AA. If we fold a hand as strong as this one, we're just folding way way too much. Fine to fold without the Qc.
I'm not super enamored with a river jam in this particular spot. You'd assume villain mostly raises JJ pre, c/r 88/44 on the flop, bets 77 on the turn. Villain does have some two pair combos with the J (although you'd asssume J7/J8 bet some on the turn). But mostly villain has marginal one-pair hands, give ups and flushes he checked turn with, maybe T9 or 65 occasionally but even those hands probably bet turn a fair amount.
Honestly: do we think an older reg who limps UTG in a ME satellite is willing to hero with a naked Jx here?
For that reason I don't mind using QQ as a bet/fold here, if anything I could even argue a touch smaller since the range of hands we're really targeting is primarily marginal one pair hands. If villain jams on this board and is clever enough to use something like AcJx as a bluff then so be it, but that's 3 combos out of his entire range. I do get that it's exploitable but we should be exploitable vs. this type of player, unless - as I noted previously - we know this player is capable.