500/1000/100
Just after addon
22 seats to $10k ME
V 45k (older reg, not pro) limps UTG 1000
Hero 70k (MAWG, reg, tough aggressive image) raises QcQd to 3500
Station BTN calls
V calls

Flop Jc 8c 4h
Hero bets 6500, BTN folds, V calls
Turn 7c
Both check
River Qh
Hero bets 12000, V check jams 35000
Hero folds

This hand still bugs me. Does anyone find a call holding Qc? V can be jamming worse (sets, 2pr) but there are straights and flushes there. He’s also likely to see no flushes in my range and may be turning Ac Jx or similar into a bluff

We had some history with me completing BB earlier, flopping set, check raising flop, barrelling turn and jamming river (he folded but lost 1/2 stack, then chipped up solidly to the above hand).

I’m expecting him to bluff catch with all one pair hands (I have AK bluffs etc in range) hence the 12k sizing but not sure what he does with 2pr+

Guess that bluff from the other hand got through

Man this is a super sick spot.

6k pre if you have an aggro image and there's a stationy V IP behind you.

Otherwise hand plays the same. Even down to the sizings (We probably wanna be going smaller OTF like 1/3 pot. The only really great cards are 2-6 nonclub and being OOP we can find ourselves in some dicey spots. Even against a rando stationy live V. So if you go 6000 pre you're still looking at ~6500 OTF)

We should have some top pair, some TT, and some bluffs we can fold. Not folding this combo. Esp if we have reason to believe V puts no straights in flushes in our range. He'd be wrong, and he'd be overbluffing in that case.

Flop is almost 100% check
Then you can x/r or x/c
As played bet turn bet river and don’t fold he can shove worse sets 2p. If he has a straight then you just have to lose that $

Bigger pre. I wouldn't go 100% check on flop, but I thinking mixing checks and c-bets is fine, would probably be more inclined to bet if we didn't have Qc.

As played river is dicey, villain almost certainly has all of the Acxc and many Kcxc combos in his range (limping UTG) which will certainly play this way. Villain also can certainly do this with straights, but the question is whether we think villain c/r jams their sets and worse two pair at a high enough frequency to justify the call. I would think straights and flushes are leading river sometimes tho. Unless you know this player is capable I would assume he's going to significantly underbluff this spot in a ME satellite, so I wouldn't assume too many bluffs.

If hewing to a GTO strategy is your thing then flop is a pure bet. W/ the Qc we wanne be going more like half pot. W/o Qc we should just be potting it.

Of course in the real world playing GTO isn't playing to maximize our EV and the more I think about it the more I like that line because at the end of the day, being OOP with a hand that's rarely better than a pair by showdown, we probably want to rarely to be going for stacks here. At this point, we have a sweet 1-2 street hand.

I actually think the Qc does not have significant value, compared to holding the Kc or Ac which smashes his UTG limping range. Obviously smells like a flush.

Do you think he would jam 2-pair for value based off your play with him? Adding these two pair combos into the river calculation really shifts the decision. You are getting close to 3/4:1 on your money. However, I agree with above that Villian will under bluff here.

Building UTG limping ranges is almost always player specific. I am gonna fold to the elderly.

I think I lean towards betting flop with the read that BTN is a station. I'd size up a bit to more like 9K though. Against more aggressive regs, I'd check most if not all the time.

As played, I like the turn check. I would just jam the river in first place. If he has a flush, so be it, but force him to make some hard decisions with hands like AcJx and don't let him put us in spots like this.

After we do use this sizing, it's a tough spot, but I think we have to call. I assume we bet most of our flushes on the turn. Maybe check back a few nut flushes, but that can't be that many combos. I assume we're betting river with this sizing with QJs, JJ, QQ, maybe KK/AA. If we fold a hand as strong as this one, we're just folding way way too much. Fine to fold without the Qc.

Dude you have no idea what ur talking about

I concede that's totally possible, but I'm kinda disappointed you didn't at least hint as to why.

I'm not super enamored with a river jam in this particular spot. You'd assume villain mostly raises JJ pre, c/r 88/44 on the flop, bets 77 on the turn. Villain does have some two pair combos with the J (although you'd asssume J7/J8 bet some on the turn). But mostly villain has marginal one-pair hands, give ups and flushes he checked turn with, maybe T9 or 65 occasionally but even those hands probably bet turn a fair amount.

Honestly: do we think an older reg who limps UTG in a ME satellite is willing to hero with a naked Jx here?

For that reason I don't mind using QQ as a bet/fold here, if anything I could even argue a touch smaller since the range of hands we're really targeting is primarily marginal one pair hands. If villain jams on this board and is clever enough to use something like AcJx as a bluff then so be it, but that's 3 combos out of his entire range. I do get that it's exploitable but we should be exploitable vs. this type of player, unless - as I noted previously - we know this player is capable.

Don't see any plausible 2-pair hands here. J-8ss is the only possibility, but it's nearly 100% that villain would either bet the flop with two clubs on the board or raise hero's 6500 bet. So, discount 2-pair as an option. In that case, the Q on the river might as well have been 2d. Villain either has the flush/straight or is bluffing. How could he jam AcJx in that spot in a sat like this?? The TpTk has too much showdown value and hero's 12K bet is too big. Comes down to whether this villain is likely to be bluff-shoving on you here. Seems like not much, in which case fold is correct. Think about what you would do with QQ rather than a set. Should be the same decision since there's no hand villain can have here that beats QQ but doesn't beat the set.

dont like line or sizing any street

well George, are you going to contribute to the discussion and suggest a line that doesn’t involve puking into our mouth otr?