Fold, call, 3-bet or shove? - MTT Poker Strategy - Multi Table Tournament Poker Forum

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Fold, call, 3-bet or shove?

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03-21-2018 , 05:38 PM

Tigeraaw

newbie

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 49

Just analyzing some spots. What to do here? Villain is 14-10

No Limit Hold'em Tournament T40*000/T80*000
Buy-in: Super Sunday Main Event-H. $500K Gtd
PartyPoker
8 players
Formatted by pokercopilot.com: Poker HUD for Mac and Windows

Stacks:

UTG - UTG (T1 127 786)
UTG+1 - UTG+1 (T2 881 100)
MP - MP (T2 881 746)
MP2 - MP2 (T1 306 949)
CO - Hero (T3 069 657)
BTN - BTN (T537 023)
SB - SB (T1 753 681)
BB - BB (T2 395 104)

Preflop: (T200 000, 8 players) Hero is CO with 8

3 folds, MP2 raises to T176 000

Hero?

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03-22-2018 , 11:28 AM

poloplaya1414

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,972

I would 3bet small, with the intention of calling off your stack unless BB cold 4bet shoves.

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03-22-2018 , 06:48 PM

Tigeraaw

newbie

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 49

Why that line against such a nitty player? Do you ever 3-bet fold in this spot?

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03-23-2018 , 02:26 AM

Abbaddabba

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 5,807

14/10 at 8 handed probably translates to something around 55+ and ewuivalent broadways / possibly lower by a couple of notches but not so significantly that 88 has much more than 50% equity against his range. for 88 to be a 3bet would require him either to have a much larger opening range than is implicit from his stats or that his fold frequency so high that you’re pretty happy to fold to a shove. With the ratio of 14/10 it suggests he’s flatting not that infrequently so you should lean toward more value / few bluffs, and even in a more ideal scenario where his stats were something like 14/12 I’d say 88 does better as a call.

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03-23-2018 , 10:00 AM

poloplaya1414

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,972

I would shove if it weren't for the BB having 30 BBs.

At 20 BB effective stacks this is a clear shove. By 3betting small we're effectively doing the same thing because we're never folding to a reshove by a stack that small, but give ourselves an out in case BB wakes up with a monster.

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