Live Multi-Day MTT. $1,100. ~70 minutes left to end of Day 1 and ~15% of field left. 10% of field gets paid on Day 2, so relatively close to the bubble.

SB 1,500
BB 3,000
BB Ante - 3,000

Relevant Stacks
MP2 (Hero) - 124,000
MP3 - 98,000
SB - 26,000

Preflop
Hero (MP2) Opens 7,000 with QQ
MP3 - Raises all in 98,000
Folded back to Hero

Hero....?????

fold pre the first time

Think he's far more likely to stick in 20k with AA/KK and more likely to jam AK/JJ/TT.

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this...

he has AKs. He would call with KK/AA.

Which suit though? I'm pretty sure it's spades.

I second spades! It looks much nicer than other suites.

People do stupid ***** all the time. Call pretty quickly unless you have any sort of read on V that suggests incredible strength - then call anyways.

Not folding unless we have a super OMC read. This is more likely JJ or AK than KK/AA.

Fold pre ldo

It's much better to put a player on a range of hands that he would shove and not a specific hand.

Gross cooler if he had AA or KK, you’d have to soul read him to lay this down. Range is pretty tight though 10’s+ and AK is about all that should be pushing here unless he thinks you could be wide here, maybe add 9’s or even 8’s to the list if that’s the case.

Please stop tapping the glass.

Some information missing here -- what is average stack? Hero has 40BB, so how big a jump is it for Hero to get to 70BB by winning this hand vs. the risk of dropping to less than 10BB? In a normal structure, I would think that 40BB at this point is around average and getting to 200K would be a significant jump up the leader board. In that case, close to end of day 1 it's a fist pump shove and if you drop to 10BB you have a few minutes to try to double up before the end of the day or else bust out and go home.

Equity here is probably close to 60% (56%+ if range is as narrow as AK, AA, KK, JJ, TT, 99 and there are probably some suited AQ combos and agro 88 and 77 hands that might do this) but depending on history of this villain if you think it's a coin flip and if you like your 117K stack after the fold enough that you're comfortable going into day 2 with that stack, the risk/reward here is the benefit of a 200K stack vs. the risk of getting busted down to 10BB if villain hits his card.

If I'm the chip leader and 98K is another relatively big stack, I can fold this and preserve big stack, but I doubt that's the case here.

Yeah, now you might want to tell @Shortfuse that it's much better to put a player on all possible suits rather than one specific suit.

Wow lol, pretty well put mate.

Also... This and cheers

(PS: ty for the lols)

This

What is so funny about his message? If I understand this idiom correctly, it suggests stop to give reasonable advices. Which is exactly the purpose of this forum. Why is it funny?

It's funny cause you're an idiot

Oh man, dont take it personnaly nor too seriously.

Imho, (2+2 is also pretty new to me) if you look at the right places and ask the right things the right way, you will indeed find incredibly valuable knowledge.

In order to get there though, you will have to navigate through the abyss of sarcasm, twisted sense of humour, the privatest of the privatest running jokes and sometimes straight up tight aggro behaviour. (Which i all enjoy in a way as it stimulates your synapses and forces humility.

Good luck in the kitchen.

In a vacuum this is definitely a call.

This is the type of situation where having those live reads built over a long period of time with a villain can aide in making the right decision though. Tough to ever fold here, but making this soul-read fold at the right time because you've utilized all information available to you is the difference between bubbling and winning tournaments like these.

I can think of a handful of regs at my local casino that I could fold to if they made this play, but against the other 95% it's a call.

Not sure if you have enough history with villain to make this assessment, but something to consider.