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Is this a fold? Is this a fold?

01-16-2018 , 06:40 AM
PokerStars 11$ - 100/200 Ante 20 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

CO: 39.57 BB
BTN: 83.57 BB
Hero (SB): 99.6 BB
BB: 37.69 BB
UTG: 48.1 BB
MP: 50.76 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.1 BB) Hero has 8d 8h
UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, CO calls 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 2.5 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop : (12.6 BB, 4 players) Jc 8s 7h
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, CO checks

Turn : (12.6 BB, 4 players) As
Hero bets 9.27 BB, fold, UTG calls 9.27 BB, CO calls 9.27 BB

River : (40.42 BB, 3 players) 9c
Hero checks, UTG checks, CO bets 27.2 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 27.2 BB, fold

CO shows Td Ad (Straight, Jack High)

Hero shows 8d 8h (Three of a Kind, Eights)

I think pre-flop it's a clear call in SB with 88 40bb deep.On the turn I bet on larger size b/c I knew UTG has alot of A and maybe CO too b/c he didn't bet flop.And on the river I checked b/C if UTG bets and CO calls I can easily fold in my opinion.When UTG checks and CO shoves the problem is that I don't think I can beat his value shoves.I mean he can have A9 but I dont think he shoves or 77 but 77 bet flop most likely.He can have missed spades he is a good aggro reg.And I believe only T he has is AT.I think T9 and JT bets flop,maybe T8.And if I fold a set here I fold all my range.That's why I called.Is this a fold?
Is this a fold? Quote
01-16-2018 , 09:52 AM
QTs is eligible as well
not many bluffs he would have either.

Shouldnt be too concerned about theory in $10 mtts.
Is this a fold? Quote
01-16-2018 , 03:19 PM
So if is a 50$+ tournament it's a call?
Is this a fold? Quote
01-16-2018 , 03:49 PM
This should be in small stakes MTT but whatevs, maybe a mod will move it.

Just because it's only a $10 tournament doesn't mean you shouldn't play it like you would a $100 buy in, the only thing that changes is the players and how you play against them. Generally the less inexperienced the player, the more you want to out fundamental them and just play good poker, no need to get fancy with bluffs or check raise all ins with air, these types of players won't understand what you're doing and call with all sorts of holdings.

Anyway to the hand, shame the flop got checked around but what can you do, already that would tell me that somebody isn't trapping since why wouldn't they bet with 4 people to build a pot and extract value from anything that would call this flop but may fold to a bad river card? Turn bet is great I like that sizing, river has to be a fold almost every time, even if you are getting bluffed. Like user12345 said there is really no bluffs in his range besides a random psycho one, which is unlikely here since people who bluff generally don't want till the last card to do it, it happens but not often. If it was a $50 tournament I would still fold, I would need a solid read on the player and have a history with him to even consider calling this. You gotta ask yourself what hands is he betting for value now that you can beat, if you can't find enough or any then it might be best to just fold and fight in another hand.
Is this a fold? Quote
01-17-2018 , 12:12 AM
I think river is a fold, you beat missed spades thats about it. Ax would never turn it into a bluff with such SDV. So vs such a polarized range otr I think he has more value than bluffs here.

You say the only Ts he has is AT, how can he not have KT,QT also, agree JT/TT proly bets flop
Is this a fold? Quote
01-17-2018 , 06:22 AM
I think the mistake was that I should C/R the turn when A hits.Much much better line to take than to lead out since the A hits UTG's range and almost for sure he bets that A.
Is this a fold? Quote
01-17-2018 , 02:30 PM
I don't mind the turn line, if villains have weak Ax or bad spade draws they might check turn a decent amount and you'll miss value.

River we have to be good around 29% of the time to breakeven. Does CO ever overvalue AJ or A9 here or have 77 sometimes? Does CO have missed spade draws they feel compelled to bluff because they can't win at showdown? Yeah, there will some Tx here but how often is Tx w/o spades flatting a three-way pot on the turn?

In short, if we're folding here it's a wicked exploitative fold. I get the logic, but I'm not sure in-game I'm capable of doing it.
Is this a fold? Quote

      
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