Hi guys havent posted in awhile just getting back into mtts. Should we jam the turn here on this wet a board as we dont want to see a flush come out? dont have much info on villain
I would jam. My normal bet would be about 8 to 9 bb's. Which would be over 40% of our remaining stack size. So I would just jam.
I think the jam makes it look like we can be on a draw so we will get calls from 9x and possibly Tx hands. If villain is on a draw they will definitely fold unless they have top pair and a flush draw or a straight and flush draw.
The other thing to consider is that if we don't jam the majority of cards out there will kill the action on the river. Any diamond and/or KQJT9876 makes things dicey and could convince villain that we improved.
Small nitpick but I am betting either smaller or bigger on the flop. As you are finding out now, the SPR is awkward now that you bet 2/3 pot on the flop.
If you bet full pot on the flop then you have a slightly over pot bet now on the turn.
If you bet 1/3 pot on the flop then you can make a smaller bet again on the turn to get value from worse hands and then leave a pot sized bet for the river.
Small nitpick but I am betting either smaller or bigger on the flop. As you are finding out now, the SPR is awkward now that you bet 2/3 pot on the flop.
If you bet full pot on the flop then you have a slightly over pot bet now on the turn.
If you bet 1/3 pot on the flop then you can make a smaller bet again on the turn to get value from worse hands and then leave a pot sized bet for the river.
The small size never gets used on this board vs sb flat I don’t think with these blockers you have. (Unblock all pairs and draws) I think the 75% is fine 90 might be higher ev tho
That makes sense, intuitively. Our hand is never getting better, and the board will likely change so that we do not have the nuts by the river. Size it to get it in on the turn makes sense, even preserver days