Why would he shove AK on the river? As a bluff? No way, really doubt AK is in his range.

fyi any psychologist worth a salt will know that your mean spirited reply to a person who was humbly asking for help says 1 of 3 things:

1-you resort to rudeness because you are unhappy with your life
2-you resort to rudeness because you are unhappy with your tiny penile instrument
3- both


boned. i get it. thats why i asked. i didn't consider wtftd if he flats a check raise. check call from there or check fold? he check call/ folds anyway but now has more info/reason to fold...

fwiw this isn't unanimous by any stretch

agreed, sliceman was out of line w/ that nonsense

out of line??? a guy who wants to 'raise to see where were at' replies to a 25k high roller thread and I'm out of line?

yep

great hand. im folding the river and playing just as you did up to there. i think more importance should be placed on his turn bet sizing, especially after the smallish flop bet. doesnt seem like hes worried about letting you peel the flop when your range has to contain some spades and straight draw combos. i expect him to show up with T9ss or QJss a lot of the time here. havent played with ZJ enough to say anything about his bluff frequency here though.

busto stacks a guy in the turbo $50r at 150-300 flatting a raise ip w/ 97c. true story. how'd you end up? nh btw.

^^^ yes. you are forgetting that most people replying in most threads are not rolled for the MTTs they are commenting on. obv you are god and your roll is infinity and thats sweet. you are also forgetting that ZJ probably isn't playing a 25k as tight as most people. i'm not saying to get all 900k chips or whatever into the middle on the river, i'm simply asking if there is any other route to take----and wtf is so wrong with betting/raising/blah. wtf card can hit the river that will make you call a bet? are you just hoping that ZJ checks behind? or are you willing to call a 10k bet there? i think this hand is stupid.

you really think he's playing TT pf like this on the first hand of a deep stack tourney?

it's one thing to provide constructive criticism, but your post was far from that

Doosh

I know it seems like everyone is ignoring my thoughts on shoving the turn, so I'd just like to try and show that it's very likely unexploitably +EV.

So, hands in ZJ's range that beat us (very liberal range here): 43, 54, 65, T9, J9, JT, Q9, QT, QJ, AA, KK, 88, 88, 88, 77, 77, 77.

So 17 hands. AK against this range: 25.4%.

Hands we freeroll but have to call our face-up shove: AK, AK, AK, AK.

So 4 hands. AK against this range: 60.23%.

Our shove is for 32,000 more into a pot of 36,450 giving him 2.14:1. I don't think there are any other hands that are 32% against us so he has to fold everything else.

When we shove, get called, and win, we win 32,000+11,500+13,450 = 56,950.
When we shove, get called, and lose, we lose 11,500+32,000 = 43,500.
When we shove and he folds, we win 11,500+13,450 = 24,950.

In order for our shove to be unexploitably +EV, he has to have x hands that must fold where:

[17*(.254*56950 + .746*-43500) + 4*(.6023*56950 + .3977*-43500) + x*(24950)]/(17+4+x) > 0

--> x > 9.53

Since you guys are including all these different gutshots in his range on the river, the number of bluffing hands (plus hands like A8, A7, 87) in his range on the turn has got to be bigger than 10.

Why is it that we are always striving to find unexploitable shoves preflop with 22 BBs with Q8s but not for postflop unexploitable shoves? Especially when flatting leads to this gross river spot.

This is hsmtt and this is a thread about a 25k hand not some $5fo.

If I hurt anybodys internet feelings, I apologize

openshoving 50k 150/300 with AA is also unexploitably +EV

oh wait

I can't imagine him checking flop or turn with AK. When he gets to the river he will shove some of the time for sure.

It seemed pretty clear to me that your post was simply an attempt to make yourself sound smart/make others sound stupid, which is entirely uncalled for in this forum, and in turn you did the opposite.

BAN

Just really looked at this thread....(I know Christian I suck...you pointed me to it a week ago)

My opinion on the play of this hand is very similar to countless others like it where someone takes this kind of line....

I really think you need to bet something...somewhere.

I am not even sure how much or on what street but you need to slow this pot down and take some control of the betting.

As played I guess you have to fold.

Come on, man. What is the point of this post? AA is so much easier to play in so many more spots that obviously we can take more +EV lines than shoving preflop. In this hand, there's one more street of action and given ZJ's bet sizing on the turn, he might well shove the river. We already know that it's going to be a tough decision on a lot of rivers and when we hit, he's almost always going to slow down because the As is such an obvious part of our range. Don't make insults just to make insults.

chill man, his point was very valid and only moderately insulting.
you showed that shoving turn is +EV relative to folding, his point was that your calculations are irrelevant, he wasn't insulting just to insult.

just because it's going to be a tough decision on the river doesn't mean we should shove.
if you can come up with a reasonable range/actions he takes with that range such that shoving turn is better than making a decision on the river, go for it, but I don't think you will. intuitively, it's because he either has enough bluffs in his range that you should let him barrel river and call it off, or he does not have enough bluffs in his range and you should call turn and fold river because shoving turn would run into his monsters too often

the answer is no

Todd referref to the benefits of 4 betting (the disadvantages of flat calling oop), and I agree that 4 betting is certainly possible.

First, I appreciate this response so much more than Double Ice's.

I'm perfectly fine with check/call, check/call UI here. I just don't see how we can check/call, check/fold UI against ZJ here when check/raise on the turn is +EV.

That's what I stated in my first post which was met with all this hate for the turn raise as if it was -EV. I wanted to show that it's for sure +EV against ZJ. Also, this is just part of the benefit of shoving the turn here as it allows us to add this hand to a shoving range that includes all our flushes and AA and makes it quite a tough decision for ZJ with his small flushes and sets.

i know what you are but what am i?

u ****ing plebeian.

sliceman... get a grip

We're not shoving our flushes or AA or any hand on the turn. Why the **** would we? Jesus, you come to the conclusion that there are enough bluffs in Justin's range to unexploitably c/r the turn and you want to c/r the turn to fold out his bluffs? We want those bluffs in his range on the river. No one here is unexploitably shoving Q8s so they can fold out 93o, and 93o has a lot more equity against Q8s than his bluffs have against AK.

Stop trying to save yourself from a tough decision and just play good instead. Justin knows we're not shoving any hand for value because he knows us shoving any hand for value would be ******ed, so he's calling our c/shove with all of the hands you want to "put him to a decision" with. Having a balanced c/shoving range is NOT better than having a strong c/c range in this spot against this villain.

wtvr, hsmtt has become a joke and once in a while we get a good thread but it has to get ruined by ppl that have no idea what they're doing.

Does anyone else open this thread every day hoping for a post by ZJ, only to be terribly disappointed each time?