i dislike a turn shove, river is super close tho

eeeekkk super gross spot... im callin tho b/c of:

c'mon this is the first hand of a deep stack tournament. The chances of him running some big 3 street bluff is pretty low imo. The fact that it's shorthanded/people sitting out etc creates an interesting dynamic but I still dont think hes 3betting all that light preflop and def dont think he 3bs any suited broadways. There an outside chance he 3bs small suited connectors but again its the first hand, you raised from EP, you've probs played 2 gether b4 and he obv doesnt view u as weak, a maniac or w/e so.

Given the action i I think hes has AA (maybe KK) a alot here. Obv you have the A and the K urself so its unlikely but the most logical imo. I think def shoves river with AA, he could have KK but its slighty discounted because I think he checks flop a decent amount with KK. Its pretty obv u have something big so again why run a big bluff on the first hand, its a very very outside chance. Its just a ultimate sick spot on the first hand of a DS big buy in MTT.

(EDIT: just seen that you have no history together, tho i still dont think it changes much)

This may seem very simple, but I think river action depends on your thoughts when calling the turn.

I agree calling turn is best, but it depends on the purpose of your turn call.

If you called thinking you were ahead, hoping he would fire again on a river blank then this is a call. It would be bad to call about 25% of your stack feeling like you're ahead, just to change your mind and fold to a relative blank on the river.

If you called the turn thinking you need to improve to be good, then this is a clear fold as the river didn't improve your hand.

I always hate trying to put together a plan on the fly. Knowing there was a high likelyhood of a shove on the river, this decision should be pretty much locked up before calling the turn.

Everyone likes preflop? I mean you are 6 handed..No one likes makeing it 9-10K here instead of calling and getting owned most of the time?

Was he already sitting at the table for some time when the torunament started?
I think this makes him more likely to plan a bluff ("with this new ****ed up 150BB High roller structure i'll go crazy and nobody wants to stack off in the first hand), than if he just made it to the table right before the cards were dealt.
And i doubt he's trying to level us hard into calling on the river, when he pushes the river pretty quickly (in a situation where he can't have the nuts).

I think it would be pretty funny if he had 96

really didnt like the river, 3 gutter balls got there... blank river would have been wierd spot as well though.

A+ for "combinatorically speaking." Also A+ for your first post, summed it up pretty well imo. I'd fold but that's why I'm not playing high rollers.

Shoving the turn seems awful. What the hell is the point?

You had a bluffcatcher (that could get there) on the turn. You still have one on the river and villain just 3 bet, bet bet bet with 2 "really quick"s on the first hand of a 25K. ZJ might have a bluffing range and he might even have a spew range, but I don't think it's one that acts with not much thought behind it both preflop and on the river.

i more then a bluff catcher on the turn, justin bets thin/merges often

I didn't realize 96, J9 or QJ made up even a small portion of his range here. I guess I can see QsJx some of the time but if you are including either of the other two, villian's range is extremely wider then I gave credit for.

I would definitely fold but I have never played w/ justin so no clue how often he's bluffing here

that said justin if you could post results (when appropriate) that would be sweet, I have money on it

I would prob call here more often than I'd fold. I think the T on river making the board "more scary" could be a better argument to call tbh. If like a 2c hit river idk wtf I'd do. There's only a couple combos of flushes in your range tbh since most either fold pre or hit combos on flop. It'd also be nice to know if zeejustin thinks you're the kind of mtter who would always c/r Axss on this flop, or if we knew that he would. I think given that most of your range isn't that strong and the way this board peels off, I'd expect villain to be bluffing with a pretty high frequency here. Also from what I've read or watched of zeejustin, he seems like one of the few ppl out there who would have absolutely no problem triple barreling their stack off first hand of a major event if they felt it was optimal. I think a lot of people could pussy out on river in his spot, but if you're going to hero here vs anyone, this seems to be the most optimal conditions to do so.

how is most of my range "not that strong" after i call a 3 bet OOP c/c the flop then call a potsized turn bet?

Does ZJ shove the 54ss etc on the river after your turn call? If not his range is super polerized to either bluff or Ks/Qs flush

Because you very rarely have 77/88/AA. The most likely maybe only flushes you have imo are QJss/QTss depending on what you do with Axss on flop (all your other fd's would have been combos on flop once turn is Ks). Your range looks very often to be AsX or AxQs.

What strong hands do you have in your range that I am missing based on the line that you took here?

EDIT: Even if you do have sets in your range and 87 on flop these are all bluff catchers like AK on river. So yeah again, don't see how you think your perceived range looks that strong on river when everyting but QJss/QTss are bluff catchers. Also if that's the case, I could see him just having the naked Qs or Js as a blocker to bluff expecting you to now have like 1 possible flush combo in your hand.

+1

In a vacuum pretty much this.

Result?

1. As a semi bluff. I mean you have the nut flush bluff card and we are 200BBs deep on the first hand. He's gonna at least consider folding small sets and small flushes. When you are called you have ~13ish outs.

2. For freeroll/merge value. If he's calling with small sets and small flushes, maybe he calls with A8/A7 or AK. He might be hoping you have just the As.

3. To prevent yourself from being put in this horrible spot on the river. This alone is a dumb reason to shove the turn, but it does add some value to the move.

What is your range for doing all of that and then just calling the turn bet. Does it include AsXs? That's the real question here.

If you do indeed flat AsXs (allowing sets and small flushes to get away cheap when another spade comes/allow sets to pair the river for free or possibly get bluffed off on the river when the boar pairs and he has air) then maybe you can prevent being bluffed on blank rivers, but I think it's much better to c/r AsXs on the turn.

sets and AK are included in the qualification "not that stong" given the river. The only hands that can be called "strong" here are the nuts and second nuts.

Is Justin ever 3-betting 7s or 8s here? I can't imagine he would be but he's clearly on a much higher level than me.

If he's not, I think this is a call for all of the reasons Frank listed.

I don't think Charder would be check raising many combo draws on the flop and tbh I don't think he really check raises any hands at all on the flop.