I know it seems like everyone is ignoring my thoughts on shoving the turn, so I'd just like to try and show that it's very likely unexploitably +EV.
So, hands in ZJ's range that beat us (very liberal range here): 4
3
, 5
4
, 6
5
, T
9
, J
9
, J
T
, Q
9
, Q
T
, Q
J
, A
A
, K
K
, 8
8
, 8
8
, 8
8
, 7
7
, 7
7
, 7
7
.
So 17 hands. A
K
against this range: 25.4%.
Hands we freeroll but have to call our face-up shove: A
K
, A
K
, A
K
, A
K
.
So 4 hands. A
K
against this range: 60.23%.
Our shove is for 32,000 more into a pot of 36,450 giving him 2.14:1. I don't think there are any other hands that are 32% against us so he has to fold everything else.
When we shove, get called, and win, we win 32,000+11,500+13,450 = 56,950.
When we shove, get called, and lose, we lose 11,500+32,000 = 43,500.
When we shove and he folds, we win 11,500+13,450 = 24,950.
In order for our shove to be unexploitably +EV, he has to have x hands that must fold where:
[17*(.254*56950 + .746*-43500) + 4*(.6023*56950 + .3977*-43500) + x*(24950)]/(17+4+x) > 0
-->
x > 9.53
Since you guys are including all these different gutshots in his range on the river, the number of bluffing hands (plus hands like A8, A7, 87) in his range on the turn has got to be bigger than 10.
Why is it that we are always striving to find unexploitable shoves preflop with 22 BBs with Q8s but not for postflop unexploitable shoves? Especially when flatting leads to this gross river spot.