Do you mean he checks behind all two pair or he bet/calls them?

Also, why is it necessarily "very good" to never bet/fold a set or low flush. He can't see our cards. What if our turn check/shove range was just flushes. Then he would be pretty stupid to call off the last 33k or so with a set or low flush. Even if it was {flushes, AsAx, AsKx} then he would probably still have to fold (I'm not gonna do the math).

What are you suggesting we do here? Never c/shove the turn with anything? That's a viable strategy I guess but I don't really like it. I'd rather never flat the turn than never c/shove it. If we never c/shove the turn then we can never bluff and never get full value when a spade hits the river. We're just leaving ourselves at the whim of our opponent and hoping he "takes it easy on us."

Sometimes we have to have a hand or two in our range that has very marginal value but aids in balancing our range. I just don't think that the "badness" of shoving the turn with AsKx overrides the lost value from flatting our flushes when bad rivers come.

Right, I wasn't suggesting that A2o is in charder's range. I was saying that generally if you check-call a PSB on the turn in a 3-bet pot, your range has a decent % of nutted hands, but on this board the vast majority of your range is bluff catchers. I can believe that AK is close to the bottom of your range for calling the turn, but a lot of hands beat AK. Both players in this hand are good enough that I think we can move past logic like "I clearly have 2p+ and he'd never try to bluff me off of it because 2p is such a sick awesome hand." It might seem weird that I'm saying ZJ has lots of hands that beat you and then suggesting a call anyway, but in my experience good players sometimes have a tendency to overcompensate by bluffing too often when there are a lot of legitimate hands they can represent, whereas in hands like the Maxim Lykov 25K hand where Vivek can represent 7 combos at most (and probably fewer) there's a very good chance he's never bluffing because he realizes how few hands he can represent.

Edit: Using your posted range earlier, the only flushes in your range are AJs, AQs, QJs and JTs but you can have 9 combos of AK and 12 combos of sets.

It wouldn't make sense to barrel the turn (esp that size) without at least a gutshot. So let's look at the most likely hands: T9s/J9s/QTs/JTs/QJs. 20 combo's of which 5 are flushes on the turn and 6 of the other 15 hit the river..

Combined with the very strong looking turn c/c I think it's a fold. We really need him to 3 barrel alot of complete air (on the first hand of a 25k) to make it a call.

With all the leveling going on, I don't understand why ZJ can't think we have AsJs or some other Asxs. I guess he would assume that Charder would fold Asxs where X is less than 10? Meaning there is only 1 combo

I have to agree with the line of thinking that he probably isn't likely to run some big bluff in the 1st hand of a large buy-in tournament.

I am also wondering, if Chader had a small flush on the turn, would he always c/r, or more importantly does ZJ think he would always c/r in that spot?

btw why would we ever 4b/f pre? Do that with A2s or AA or 97s or whatever.

keeping 4bet folding aces pre fish

I'm a bit late here but A+ until the river. I think anything else would be crazy. At that point it is one of the legit hardest decisions I've seen in a while. I feel like Justin bluffs enough that this is a call. For people betting even money that he was bluffing I can't see this being a bluff over 50% of the time.

This doesn't need to be a bluff 50% of the time to make calling in charder's spot profitable. I didn't look at the pot odds were getting but it's def better than 2 to 1 so ZJ would need to be bluffing something like 30% of the time to make it a call.

Also busto_soon you're forgetting a lot of hands in ZJ's barreling range. QsQx or QsXx, JsJx or JsXx, plus all the combos of gutters/double gutters/oesd's quite a few of which miss or make single pairs that obv never win at showdown.

Frank, I think he knows how pot odds work. He's talking about people who put side bets on what ZJ had at 1 to 1 odds. I believe Funki got like 10 to 1 from lilholdem though.

10:1 o rly?

Are there any wagers on whether Justin will reveal his holding?

u r stupid

WTF

How often would he turn JJs and QQs in a bluff on the tunr and on the river. I think its like <10%. His default line would be to check the turn with a fd in his PPs.
I mean damn...
I would bet 3,5:1 that AK is beaten here

guessing he knows about the thread by now (if not someone tell him duh), so I'd assume he wont

and yeah I got 10:1, although rumor has it chad does not know what that means so we'll see

good thread...in my humble low bi opinion, all signs point to a bluff that may or may not have gotten there on the turn...it's extremely deep in a high BI tourney, this is the perfect spot to execute this type of bluff no one wants to bust on the first hand and i think the sizing somewhat polarizes his range to a drawing hand, i don't think anyone is going to 3b to 3.5x with AA or KK but maybe i'm just leveling myself

and the way the board ran out he's forcing us to fold all but the very very top of our range, so he could well have a hand like QJs that got there on the turn or just as well could have KQs that missed but he's got to be thinking he can fold out AQ and even AK

so i'm eliminating any set, that leaves some flushes, some bluffs and some chops with the same hand so i gotta call this river

Was it really 50k starting stack and 150/300 blinds? Sucky!

^^^^^^^this.

considering my largest mtt to date is $2k, i'm obv not giving advice as much as i'm looking for it ;-) this seems like one of those kill yourself type hands.

i'm shocked that no one advocates raising the flop or turn to see where you are. i feel that isn't a bad line if you are actually willing to fold top 2 on the river after calling a large bet on the turn. its about the same amount but imo you'd have more of a reason to fold as your opponent has now shown even more strength by coming back over the top.

or is that wrong as your raise allows a super aggro player like ZJ to reshove?

or is it wrong for other reasons?

speaking of super aggro---didn't ZJ just "part" w/ UB? maybe he's in a "don't mess w/ me mood" and he shoved air considering your calls showed weakness and he figures you cannot call w/o the nuts in a $25k on the first hand.

???

ooc - how long did he take in between his actions on the flop, turn and river (after your checks?)

thanks!

wtf does that mean to see where your at, please do not use this terminology it makes you sound like an idiot.

you should raise for two reasons, for pure value, as a bluff. you do not raise to 'find out where your at'

1.pay 100 or sthg to justin say he was bluffing
2.profit

So you raise the flop, he calls, and the turn is the king of spades. Where are you at?

Amazing, you've figured out how to scam. Good job.

thx you haven't figured to interpret a joke tho

in over my head?

Could he be valueshowing a set of T's?

Zj can have the other AK FWIW and if he chose to play TT like this I'm sure he can have it.

Eagles, you really think he shoves the other AK on the river? that be pretty absurd.