Quote:
Originally Posted by Bubblebust
I have a follow up question to this post -- it's a situation I often find myself in and struggle with.
Suppose we follow my advice on turn and throw out a probe bet in a hand like this with top pair, and V flats. What's our play on the river when a (seemingly) harmless card like the 3 peels? If we bet, we are going to have to b/f, which I hate doing with sdv. If we check, do we bluff catch, or x/f, or do we make a sizing read?
As played I don't see how the river lead bet is for value. (what hands would one expect a call from?) As a blocker bet I'm not sure I agree with that either. So, a x/c may have been a better line depending on the V's bet size, if he bets at all. So I agree with you there.
I also don't see issues with betting the turn to extract value from draws that miss. It would be rare to get raised here, but if so it usually a set, made flush, a bigger ace or a monster draw, in which case a fold is warranted. If V calls turn, I'd still take a x/c line depending on his river bet size. His hand is not nutted so it's hard for him to over bluff/bet the river here.
If he does then, I'd hate to say sometimes we loose here by simply folding. (which would have been correct based on the hands) However, we still have plenty of BB's to use for better spots. More over we loose about as much as we would have in this scenario, where we bet the turn and fold the river, as we when we checked the turn and b/c the river. Taking the lead in the hand on the turn is just a much better line IMHO.
Last edited by river.king.123; 09-24-2020 at 05:17 PM.