Blinds: 12k/24k/4k
Position: UTG+2 (10 handed)
Stack: 720k (effective stack)
Hand: AdQc

UTG opens to 60K, fold, Hero calls 60K, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 60K, fold.

Flop (244K): Qs Jd 5s

SB checks, UTG bets 100K, Hero calls 100K, SB raises to 400K, UTG folds, Hero ???

Relevant info:
10th place $1650, 1st place $22K.

Stacks approximate
UTG 700K
UTG+1 600K
UTG+2 720K
MP 120K
LJ 1.2M
HJ 120K
CO 600K
BTN 700K
SB 1.2M
BB 700K

Don't have tons of info on villains but both seem like competent mid-stakes regs.

We can discuss pre but running it in HRC against some reasonable UTG ranges call or 3-bet for AQo are pretty much identical, jamming looked like it was slightly losing. UTG didn't seem like a nit so folding didn't feel like an option.

More interested in what our options are on the flop other than the obvious.

What do you consider a reasonable UTG range with a middling stack and 2 5bb stacks at the table?

I'd probably 3-bet/fold or fold this hand pre because there's 2 120k stacks and UTG should have a tighter than normal range because ICM.

Easy fold on the flop IMO unless SB is incompetent. He's raising into a UTG c-bet a UTG+2 flat on the final table with micro stacks at the table.

I was running it against 14% UTG open ranges and it had flat and 3-bet as pretty much identical. At 11% UTG it had AQo as slightly winning and 3-bet as slightly losing. (it wants us to raise exactly TT+, AK and AQs) At 8% it still has call AQo as slightly winning and 3-bet AQo as slightly losing.

Our flat range here is pretty narrow to begin with and I'm not sure how many better hands we have. We may not have QQ+ at all as those would likely 3-bet, 55 would almost certainly not call. We may have 2 combos of QJs and sometimes JJ, but even JJ might mostly be a 3-bet.

If we're not calling AQ without the As, what hands are we going with here?

I mean, this is part of the reason that flatting is not great. Again, busting (Specifically calling it off) with 2 5bb stacks when you started with 25bb is a disaster. I'd venture to guess we need somewhere between 5-10% extra equity over cEV for this to be a call. And unless you think SB is a total maniac we can't continue, even if we're folding almost all of our range.

I like the flat pre because of the smaller stacks. Now just jam though. It's not like we're talking huge ladders for the next 2 spots.

Would SB just call JJ pre here ?
Is SB making this move with a hand like AsTs or KsJs ?
Would he flat JhQh pre ?
Would he flat KsTs pre ?
Would he play QK this way ?

I guess most of the time villain has 55 or some combo draw (mostly AsTs, and maybe KsJs and 9sTs depending on how loose he is pre). That puts us in a situation where we're either crushed or on a flip. And there are as much combos of sets as there are of combo draws.

That makes it a fold for me.

I agree with what you are saying, we are probably looking at a pair and flush draw, flush draw, straight draw, combo draw. This makes this a snap shove. There is too much in the pot already to consider folding this now. Like you said, doesn't SB 3 bet JJ preflop? So we are worried about 55.

There is already ~844 in the pot and we have 580 back. If we get it in and win 1.7M. So we need ~ 33% and we definitely have more than that.

I'll give you a point because I had not seen stack sizes right when I first posted this and seen that SB is actually CL.

But even then it really depends on how we perceive V and what range we give him. With this raise, we agree that he is committed to the pot.

The question that remains to me is will he commit to the pot with only a straight draw (9dTd for example) or only a flush draw (As4s for example) or not. If the answer is yes, yes it's a clear jam.

If not, that leaves his possible holdings to AsJs, KsJs, JsTs, AsTs, 55(3 combos) and JhQh.

In that case, we would have ~ 50% vs the draws (4 combos). ~4% vs 55 (3 combos) and ~15% vs JhQh. And vs that range we don't have the 33%.

I don't know maybe I'm too nitty... but it feels like people won't be taking this risk often with a simple draw vs UTG and UTG+2 ranges on final tables...

Really tough spot jp

Hate to say it but I think I agree with PP (I'm teasing btw). But I do agree with PP

Even though I have no data to back it up and I assume (perhaps incorrectly) there's nothing GTO about 3b/f 180-200k, there's gotta be some funky ICM stuff going on that makes him (and all players behind) fold almost everything except tippy-top of range hands, like top 3% (?) Maybe even tighter? I'd hate to have 88-TT if I'm UTG. Plus them blockers...

So we prob take it down a ton and really put everyone in the cage without opening our entire stack up sans seeing a flop and smashing it. And we'd still have some room to maneuver for a street or two, so being IP (assuming it's down to UTG and us) should allow us to seize a lil extra EV if it comes down to taking it to the streets.

IDK really tough spot, could easily be convinced of any other line, both pre and post.

Thanks for the replies - at least there's some debate and not some glaringly simple answer that I didn't see.

With regards to preflop, while I think the actual math of call may be slightly better than 3-bet taking into account ICM (and fold probably isn't that much worse tbh), I do think there's a dynamic in play that maybe makes 3-bet slightly better than flat. But then I would argue that if we're 3-betting AQo with the intention of folding to a jam, we could get away with not having a call range here at all. The bottom of our call range, which would be stuff like AJs, AQo, KQs, 99, could all be 3-bet/fold hands.

Post flop, I think there are a few key dynamics in play, some of which you all touched on:

1. The small blind is the chip leader. And as such, he's going to be very much incentivized to put pressure on middle stacks like ours, especially if he thinks he can get stuff like Qx or Jx to fold 100% of the time. I'm sure he's aware that we're aware that there are short stacks at the table and that we don't want to bust.

2. We have pretty much the top of our range here. Sometimes we'll have JJ or QJs in our call range, but more than likely those hands are either 3-bets (JJ) or folds (QJs). If we start folding AQo it's conceivable we're folding 100% of the time, and that is a pretty awful spot to be in. It's brutal if we bust, though, and maybe we only call when we have stuff like AsJs/AsTs and the occasional QJ or JJ.

3. Our removal effects are about as good as we could hope for. Having AQ means our opponent is less likely to have QQ (although I think that 3-bets) or QJ (which is the most likely bet for value our opponent has). We also don't block KT, T9 or any of the nut flush draws. We also have KQ and AQ with the As that we can fold before we fold AQ without the As.

Beyond folding and jamming, I do think a line to contemplate is to flat (leaving us 280K behind) and look to fold if the turn completes the most likely draws we think our villain has. That would mean we fold turn to any spade, any A, K, 9 or 8.

i'm upping the ante and 3 betting on an FT even 10-handed. you'll be read as insanely nutted and stand up well with AQ to any r/c range from UTG.

In these scenarios, I like flatting more w AQs type of hands and 3bet folding AQo. Always prefer flat more with suited hands, because they play way better multiway.

ICM is a thing so if he's aware he'll shove frequently I'd be a bit worried. Ok with 3b/f I suppose but would rather play post instead.