Thanks for the replies - at least there's some debate and not some glaringly simple answer that I didn't see.
With regards to preflop, while I think the actual math of call may be slightly better than 3-bet taking into account ICM (and fold probably isn't that much worse tbh), I do think there's a dynamic in play that maybe makes 3-bet slightly better than flat. But then I would argue that if we're 3-betting AQo with the intention of folding to a jam, we could get away with not having a call range here at all. The bottom of our call range, which would be stuff like AJs, AQo, KQs, 99, could all be 3-bet/fold hands.
Post flop, I think there are a few key dynamics in play, some of which you all touched on:
1. The small blind is the chip leader. And as such, he's going to be very much incentivized to put pressure on middle stacks like ours, especially if he thinks he can get stuff like Qx or Jx to fold 100% of the time. I'm sure he's aware that we're aware that there are short stacks at the table and that we don't want to bust.
2. We have pretty much the top of our range here. Sometimes we'll have JJ or QJs in our call range, but more than likely those hands are either 3-bets (JJ) or folds (QJs). If we start folding AQo it's conceivable we're folding 100% of the time, and that is a pretty awful spot to be in. It's brutal if we bust, though, and maybe we only call when we have stuff like AsJs/AsTs and the occasional QJ or JJ.
3. Our removal effects are about as good as we could hope for. Having AQ means our opponent is less likely to have QQ (although I think that 3-bets) or QJ (which is the most likely bet for value our opponent has). We also don't block KT, T9 or any of the nut flush draws. We also have KQ and AQ with the As that we can fold before we fold AQ without the As.
Beyond folding and jamming, I do think a line to contemplate is to flat (leaving us 280K behind) and look to fold if the turn completes the most likely draws we think our villain has. That would mean we fold turn to any spade, any A, K, 9 or 8.
Last edited by jpgiro; 03-12-2019 at 02:06 PM.