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Final 3 MICOOP 200 Super Tuesday Final 3 MICOOP 200 Super Tuesday

02-24-2021 , 03:55 AM
I am a cash game professional who will play MTT's on the side when it makes sense. I understand the idea of ICM but have not put too much study into situations like this, facing a jam with a (imo) borderline hand. Of note, villain had been 2.25xing a good amount, even bvb as low as 11bbs effective. My thinking when they open rip is that they never have AQ+ and TT+ as those would open to 2.25x to induce. Payouts are 5.7k for 3rd, 7.7k for 2nd, and 10.4k for 1st. Whats our calling range here in this spot considering the ICM pressure we are under?




PokerStars - 40000/80000 Ante 10000 NL - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 18.88 BB
Hero (BB): 17.42 BB
BTN: 56.83 BB

3 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.87 BB) Hero has T A

BTN raises to 56.7 BB and is all-in, fold, Hero ????
Final 3 MICOOP 200 Super Tuesday Quote
02-24-2021 , 01:20 PM
I call, V is blasting super wide here, perhaps ATC -- indeed, the top of his range might be capped with the open-shove. You need to double up, and this might be the best spot to do so.
Final 3 MICOOP 200 Super Tuesday Quote
02-24-2021 , 02:44 PM
I would call, i wonder how short sb would have to be for us to consider folding
Final 3 MICOOP 200 Super Tuesday Quote
02-26-2021 , 12:27 PM
Probably calling; it's close. One factor to consider is what you think of SB, if you think he sucks and has a higher than average tendency to ICM punt (this should be a lot of people in a $200 on PokerStars USA) that makes me want to play tighter and maybe I fold.
Final 3 MICOOP 200 Super Tuesday Quote
02-27-2021 , 09:26 AM
It's close either way. You are right that his shove is very capped, but that doesn't mean you can call particularly wide. Actually most regs have the tendency to shove too strong of a range in this spot. Like you might see him show up with pairs that he should be raise calling instead. Also in theory he should never have AJ+ in this line, but in practice you still see people rip them and then it gets really bad for marginal calling hands.
Final 3 MICOOP 200 Super Tuesday Quote
03-05-2021 , 12:44 AM
ICMIZER
Final 3 MICOOP 200 Super Tuesday Quote
03-06-2021 , 02:32 AM
If V were shoving the top 45% or so of hands then our calling range is 88+ ATs+ AJo+, whereas if your assumption about V inducing with TT+ AQo+ is correct then our calling range changes to 77+ A9s+ ATo+. So there's a baseline from which you can widen or tighten if you think you can somewhat accurately estimate villains frequencies based on history
Final 3 MICOOP 200 Super Tuesday Quote
03-06-2021 , 10:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wynner88888
If V were shoving the top 45% or so of hands then our calling range is 88+ ATs+ AJo+, whereas if your assumption about V inducing with TT+ AQo+ is correct then our calling range changes to 77+ A9s+ ATo+. So there's a baseline from which you can widen or tighten if you think you can somewhat accurately estimate villains frequencies based on history
For reference, here's a 45% range. This isn't ICM based so the actual range will be a little different but this is in the ballpark.

I'm sure there are players in an MICOOP $200 ripping Q8o and T7s in this spot, but I certainly don't think it's the majority of the field. This is probably more of a fold than I thought.


Last edited by JoeC2012; 03-06-2021 at 11:19 AM.
Final 3 MICOOP 200 Super Tuesday Quote
03-06-2021 , 02:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeC2012
For reference, here's a 45% range. This isn't ICM based so the actual range will be a little different but this is in the ballpark.

I'm sure there are players in an MICOOP $200 ripping Q8o and T7s in this spot, but I certainly don't think it's the majority of the field. This is probably more of a fold than I thought.

I just gave the icmizer result and yeah from there extrapolate as you please based on whatever factors and assumptions you consider valid. Personally I feel ATo is a marginal fold but it feels sort of gross either way
Final 3 MICOOP 200 Super Tuesday Quote
03-09-2021 , 10:39 AM
Without node locking:

https://hands.holdemresources.net/?id=1buntwehnawj9

With your input:

https://hands.holdemresources.net/?id=uvs24h8hjep1

In both calcs ATo is bottomrange and incredibly close to a fold (+$52.4 and +$69.4 equity). Passing up on this isn't a big mistake your goal should be gaining chips from the SB and avoid clashing with the BTN without a super strong hand.
Final 3 MICOOP 200 Super Tuesday Quote

      
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