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FD for big pot early on

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08-03-2019 , 09:07 AM

esiseb

newbie

Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 25

8 Handed, early tournament.
Early stacks, CO is a big splashing fish, his range can include hands as bad as T3o here. BTN range unclear, he has probably 88+ ATs+ AJo+

Blinds 300/600

UTG raises K

1400 (50,000)
CO calls 1400 (50,000)
BTN 3bets 4200 (60,000)
UTG calls 2800
CO calls 2800

Flop 6

(Pot 13,500)
UTG checks
CO checks
BTN bets 15,000
UTG (folds / calls / raises) ? (45,000 behind)

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08-04-2019 , 06:19 AM

cliff47

enthusiast

Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 51

Fold w/ what look like no perceived fold equity and find better spots

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08-04-2019 , 09:12 AM

esiseb

newbie

Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 25

Quote:

Originally Posted by cliff47

Fold w/ what look like no perceived fold equity and find better spots

Against TT+ we have 45% equity. If he instead of betting 15,000, would just shove (so no FE), we would need around 43% equity.

So is your reasoning to fold a +EV spot for variance and the opportunity to get bigger +EV spots later on?

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08-04-2019 , 12:14 PM

Smudger2408

banned

Join Date: Jun 2019 Posts: 1,922

puke and fold.

Your equity is less as he probably jams turn.

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08-04-2019 , 01:26 PM

esiseb

newbie

Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 25

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smudger2408

puke and fold.

Your equity is less as he probably jams turn.

what do you mean "your equity is less"?

suppose he goes AI on flop, we have around 45% equity.

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08-04-2019 , 03:28 PM

auralex14

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 2,914

I don't think calling is an option, so it's fold or jam.

Is it a rebuy

? If not, I fold. If it is, I jam.

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08-08-2019 , 09:44 AM

swissodds

adept

Join Date: Apr 2016 Posts: 1,103

Quote:

Originally Posted by auralex14

I don't think calling is an option, so it's fold or jam.

Is it a rebuy

? If not, I fold. If it is, I jam.

Pretty much this but interested in knowing what pio says regarding V range in this spot

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08-08-2019 , 10:20 AM

Beachman42

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 4,365

What is the C of clubs?

Not really a fan of opening UTG for the very way this played out unless C = Q or A. Knowing the other card is kinda important.

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08-09-2019 , 12:24 PM

Smudger2408

banned

Join Date: Jun 2019 Posts: 1,922

Your equity is 45% if you see both cards.

If you have to fold to a turn jam that doesn't make your hand and are prevented from seeing the 5th card, your equity is less.

If you go all in on the flop, you realize all your equity.

If just call, equity is less.

Last edited by Smudger2408; 08-09-2019 at 12:38 PM.

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08-10-2019 , 03:03 AM

#10

metalrenas

enthusiast

Join Date: Feb 2018 Posts: 87

I think V range is basically overpairs… Then I think shoving is the correct play… His bet means he is terrified of a club to come... He should be scared you already had a set... You have fold equity.. If called you have 45% equity against that range...

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08-10-2019 , 06:02 AM

#11

cliff47

enthusiast

Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 51

w/ shallow stacks, ye gii.

BTN weighted to overpairs, but his 3b sizing is so small that I would give him less TT/JJ and QQ and more nutted range of KK+. Also he might have ace high fds some % of the time.
so worst case scenario we have 43%, best case scenario we'd have 46%.
we also just invested 7 bigs out of ~80 into this pot, and it seems like there's not even an ante. by folding we are guaranteed to go on playing w/ 76 bigs which is great.
fold and move on imo.
having ~80 or ~170 bigs does not really change or future EV all that much this early on.
maybe it's a different story in a bounty when we cover

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