300€, 500k gtd live tournament

Villain is around 30 and likes to 3bet. In the second blind level of the mtt 120bb deep i saw him make a bad call otf in a 3way pot on 98d7s where he got checkraised huge, another guy 3bai and he called with KhKc.He made a rebuy and came back to the table.

Blinds 500/1k/1k button ante
Villain has around 120k and is sitting on the table for around 15 min after rebuying.
Hero has 95k

Utg+1 raises to 2400, villain in mp 3b to 5200 (wtf), i`m in hj with JJ and was confused by the sizing.I didnt wanna 4b and face a potential 5b, so i flatted, utg+1 folded lol.

Flop (15,3k) 943

Villain checks, hero bets 5,4k, villain calls

Turn (26,1k) 943T

Villain checks, hero bets 16,4k, villain calls.

River (58,9k) 943T9

Villain thinks for max 10 seconds and shoves for 68k eff

Hero?

His line was kinda weird. The only hand that really makes sense to me is 99

The preflop min-raise is consistent with KK/AA, too, especially given his history. We can't totally rule out 33 or 44, even though his preflop line would be quite odd.

It's hard to see how we're ahead here except for the rawest bluff. His timing speaks to a guy trying to extract maximum value (or representing such.)

I'd let it go, but I'm nitty to a fault.

I think this is a fold in the abstract, and your read from previous hand where Villain overvalued one overpair confirms it. Yeah, he can have a strangely played Ax, particularly AK or AQ of spades where he picked up a draw to the nuts on the turn. But against those few bluffs, he has one combo of 99, 3 of TT and 18 of the 3 overpairs.

I think AA - QQ is pretty unlikely here. He slowplayed all the way and open jams when the board pairs? That line doesn't really make an sense.

TT would make sense here. Is it possible that he would 3 bet something like J9 or T9, etc?
He flops a pair and decides to play pot control, then the board pairs on the end and he is worried he will miss his chance to value bet.

I think with QQ+ he would 3bet to a normal size. Before this hand his 3bets had normal sizings.Thats why i was confused.When he made the bad call with KK his 3bet pre was huge and he was otb.It was also weird because he 3bet a really tight player.

I think he would cbet TT and i dont think he would 3bet J9 or T9 in this position against a tight player in utg+1.

I folded pretty quickly thinking he has more value hands then bluffs in this spot.But except 99 no hand makes sense to me.I dont know if he would shove QQ+.I mean i could easily have T9s, 98s, TT, 99.

Pretty big leak imo to show up here with T9s and 98s...but if you have all combos of those hands then u might be able to fold your JJ combos with a spade.

You mentioned that vill had previously used a big 3bet sizing otb in the KK hand but u also said that his hero call was in a 3-way pot? Unless one of the blinds cold-called, he was squeezing and a larger size would have been appropriate.

Not saying this is an easy spot but u seem to be making quite a few assumptions RE how villain would play diff parts of his range based upon your own strat/tendencies.

The relevant assumption here regards how capped vill thinks ur range is. If he weights u heavily to 99-QQ then he can value shove AA and KK.