Villain was playing splashy and peely, trying to take away pot with floats

I recently saw him raise the button with T5o

In retrospect i dislike my 3x preflop given the above info despite ICM pressure I can exert

On the turn i figure he will bet his entire range and fold everything but a queen and potentially fold some queens as well

Is this line profitable given the situation and how do i work out its profitability? (i have Flopzilla, Equliab, Icmizer which I don't think can help but do have Combonator but don't really know how to use it yet!

iPoker - 8,000/16,000 NL - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 698,386 (VPIP: 24.79, PFR: 17.04, 3Bet Preflop: 6.87, Hands: 607)
BTN: 456,637 (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 26.77, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 132)
Hero (SB): 854,977

3 players post ante of 1,600, Hero posts SB 8,000, BB posts BB 16,000

Pre Flop: (pot: 28,800) Hero has K 2

fold, Hero raises to 48,000, BB calls 32,000

Flop: (100,800, 2 players) Q 8 5
Hero bets 52,200, BB calls 52,200

Turn: (205,200, 2 players) 2
Hero checks, BB bets 113,200, Hero raises to 753,177,

If villain is splashy then why don't we just call down with our pair? Also on a flop so dry do you really wanna size 1/2 pot? I guess if villain is floating a lot we want to size up our value and bluffs but it seems like you're inviting yourself into a tricky situation with stack size.

TBH tho I would probably pick a better hand than K2dd. Seems like if we're using this we're using too many hands.

that being said, i'm not opening K2s vs described player. limp/call it, raise with stronger range.

1st half of sentence may be close accurate but the folding some Qx part is somewhere btwn lol and insane. Folding the better 8x's would be pretty lol too imo.

You need 32% equity to b/e, so if the 1st part is correct, this will be profitable (given u have almost 33% equity vs a reasonable float/bet range) and he can't b/c his naked draws. Fwiw...i didn't spend too much time on IP/BB's range...but prob close enuf.



so if ur read is correct then u will show a profit since he can't b/c his entire turn betting range. The wider he floats the more profitable this becomes.

personally, i'd limp this pre...then mix otf...as played c/f flop or cbet ~30%. U will have better hands to cbet/check-shove turn with.

and RE ur reference to opening for >3x here...ah...well...open-shoving 43bbs eff might be cEV+ and/or $EV+...you can let me know after u watch a youtube vid on ur new software

Limp pre
X flop
Call some smallish bets otf
X turn probably fold ott to a bet

Q85 is pretty ok for ip. Ranges are so wide here that mixing in a stab with lots of parts of your range is fine. Vs some one like this who’s not gonna just fold flop so often I kinda like x
(Assuming you limped)
3x pre is kinda meh

ya limp pre. AP pre, xf flop.
AP, I like your turn line against described V

imho, there s fine line between cold blooded v tendencies exploitation and owning ourselves in spots we d not normally play likewise.
I mean, ok you found out V has tendencies to float and to be sticky.
Therefore, why trying to exploit this in a risky spot when you can play more conservatively and ensure yourself to maximize profit when V is getting to spazzy and ool. imho, limp pre, x/f flop. No need to get cute. To me, looks more like V got you on semi tilt, inducing that spazzy play from you, than a V tendencies exploitative move. Cheers and gg tho

Would complete pre.


I don't like the cbet either. Villain's continuing with all 97 96 65 JT T9 any pair probably stuff with bdfd bdsd like K7hh etc and you're stuck on the turn with K high most of the time where you have poor playability.


That said, on the turn he'll likely have a ton of b/f, but your equity against his bet/calls is poor. Probably have to go with it though.

good points

Thanks for all the comments; yeah as said before i dont like my line pre and on the flop; i should have limp-stabbed or limp called

I wasn't on tilt, though my line could suggest otherwise; it was more a dynamic and a momentum thing

It does raise an interesting point about showdown value vs. exerting ICM pressure; where this time i choose the latter

Icm pressure and punting a stack is two diff things

Curious why the consensus is limp pre here. I'm struggling to think through when I should open vs. limp from SB, so genuinely curious.

As played, I think flop cbet is fine but too large. I would rather just fire a double barrel here than go for the x/jam.

This combo really doesn't play well oop in a raised pot...it makes the worst TP hand so it may be tough to go for 3 streets. It can flop a strong FD but is more likely to flop bot pr. Description of vill/BB is that he doesn't like folding so FE pre isn't gonna be too goot either. At 40bbs eff the most likely outcome is BB will flat are pretty wide range.

If ur playing a mixed strat from SB then this hand should go into the limp range imo. If ur playing r/f then it could be an open.