In let's say Sunday Million against a random opponent.

We're getting 4.5:1.

We're in the BB if it's not clear. All others have folded. Obv this would be a fold in a multiway pot, but I'm talking only against one opponent.

Stacks would be relevant. I think I would defend with something like 50-60+ bbs, or 5 or less bbs (before posting), obviously shoving.

With 5bbs you would shove? Why?

I probably fold because of RIO (if we hit either card against a UTG open we would have no idea if we were ahead).

It might be a call with less than 10xBB, as your negative implied odds are not as bad.

I'm not looking to play a big pot with one pair here. I'm looking for a K5x or 55x flop. That's why I need a really big stack with big implied odds to call. Against most opponents I would call a c-bet on a lot of Kxx flops (no A).

Because I am committed if I call, and have zero FE. Fold might be better -- and I certainly hve no issues with that. But I can't call 25% of my stack, having to pay SB (which will then be 17% of my stack) the next hand. I'm gonna be blinded out. With 5 bbs -- 4 after posting the BB, I figure you gotta take some chances and get lucky.

If the choice is call or fold, with 5xBB in the BB and K5o, if is a fold. You are putting in 4xBB to win about 7.5xBB and you are about 30% against UTG's range. Just defend and see a flop. You can probably push like with a stop and go on some flops. Generally, gii if you make a pair.

Actually, the only flops that are good for you against an UTG range have a K and a 5 or are like 643 or you flop a 2nd nut flush draw. So probably just defend and x/f if you miss when starting with 5xBB.

If had like 3xBB, you would be putting in 2 to win 5.5, so probably just push or push any flop, so you can see 5 cards and something UTG will have like QJ or 98s and you are ahead.

Deuce, I think you are right if you are looking just at the hand.

But when we are so short-stacked, and then having to pay the SB on the next hand, you have to think about your chances for a better opportunity -- i.e., getting laid a better price to double up. And you really need to keep in mind that with the ante (and the SB you are about to pay), each double up is getting smaller the more hands you wait.

If you flat the BB with 5 BBs and don't hit the board and surrender, you have 3 BBs. If you can't go with the next hand, you have around 2.4 BBs. At this point, you won't have any FE, so you really need to hope to get a premium hand or hit a flop that the caller(s) miss. Say you wait 3 more hands (so you have 2.1 BBs) and decide to shove with QT.

I don't think your total cEV in that situation is better than your cEV had you shoved the K5 w/ 5 bbs. For ease of calculations, say with the QT you are 50% against a single callers very wide calling range to win 6.3 bbs in chips. Your expected chip count after the hand is 2.65 bbs.

I ran the K5 vs a very tight UTG range of 99+, AQ+, ATs+ and KQs, and our K5 is 27%. But the pot here is 11.5 bbs. Our expected chip count after this hand is about 3.1 bbs.

So even though you are taking a gamble with worse overall odds to win the hand, you actually are in a situation with more overall expected chips.

Of course, you might wait and find a better hand than QT to push, and maybe you get a monster on SB. But then again, you might be forced to go with worse and later and really be esentially blinded out.

Now all of this is assuming there are no ICM considerations.

EDIT: Of course, you also have to factor in the chances of winning when you flat the K5, so that makes it closer -- and much more complicated.

There is a lot you can do with a 4xBB stack. There should be better situations to gii HU with dead money. I wouldn't just throw the stack in cEV-.

As you imply, if it is ITM, then there may be value in staying in for pay jumps. I wouldn't just get blinded out, but no need to take cEV- spots.

Plus the UTG raiser has a pp, ace, or king a high percentage of the time, so K4o is generally behind, so we can play close to perfectly defending and gii with a pair or decent draw.

It's a ~0ev call assuming it's a skilled opponent. In reality against a random it will probably be slightly +ev because randoms won't be as aggressive on turns and rivers as the equilibrium says they should. The bottleneck to defending the BB with hands that flop pure bluffcatchers is how well the opponent barrels later streets.

In first glance, we assume it's monster -EV.
You get flop lie Kxx or 522

Opponent fires 3 bullets and he has major range advantage

Call all down with pair?

To be picky, you have a big nuts advantage on 522 and UTG might be hesitant to bet three streets for value on it with AK/AA.

I mean with TT-AA it would be hard to bet 3 streets for value from UTG vs. BB on a 522 flop.

I have no interest in defending a K5 type hand in bb vs an utg raise deep (lets say we each have 50+bb).


the only reasons I would ever call here would be to establish some sort of history with an opponent I believe to have a nice edge against. I've called some random ass hands vs opponents whom I see as weak just to establish ANY history to then play off or play on that history.