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Dnegs $10K WSOP bustout hand

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09-12-2020 , 09:46 AM

deuceblocker

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Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 3,383

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9x7ouJbpjk?149m45s

This hand was criticized in NVG. I thought he played it correctly. How should he have played differently?

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09-12-2020 , 11:39 AM

PEEhole_Solver

enthusiast

Join Date: Nov 2019 Posts: 53

don't be lazy and post the actual hand history no one wants to see a bearded twink in a wife beater play poker

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09-12-2020 , 01:40 PM

deuceblocker

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Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 3,383

UTG with 18.2xBB minraises, Dnegs with 7.5xBB in the BB defends with Tc8c. The flop comes TsQs4s. Dnegs pushes 6.4xBB into a 5.4xBB pot. UTG called is KhKc. I don't see how he could have played it differently.

There were 133 players left on the stone bubble, so if there were a lot of shorter stacks, maybe he could have folded preflop to fold into the money.

I can't make the suits icons work in a reply.

Yeh, I agree about his dress. I often dress similarly or worse playing online, but not with 100K+ people watching.

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09-12-2020 , 02:13 PM

2pairsof2s

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 1,613

There is nothing wrong with how he played the hand. The critical comments in the NVG thread come from dedicated Negranu haters who will find fault in any move he makes, from his choice of hair care products to his toast-buttering technique. Meanwhile, a card-dead Negranu manages to eke out another min-cash for a quick $10K and goes on with his life.

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09-12-2020 , 07:42 PM

lolposting2016

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Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 2,149

Think it’s a blunder tbh. There’s no leads for the oop player on qtx vs utg even this shallow could be wrong though

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09-12-2020 , 08:07 PM

deuceblocker

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Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 3,383

He is 40% versus a 15% range OTF. There is a large amount in the pot. UTG folds some, but only when he is far behind. It isn't a blunder. If x/f is better, it is very close. However, there are mincash issues, but I think a shorter stack busted on the same hand, and Dnegs wanted to make the FT for publicity for GG. It's possible if there were many much smaller stacks, it might have been better for $EV to fold preflop. Dnegs may have also known the shorter stack was busting with hand for hand before he pushed.

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09-12-2020 , 09:07 PM

persianpunisher

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Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 2,818

Villain can fold hands with good equity like AJ or AK no spade. Maybe even hands like 77-99 with a spade. If villain checks back we're going to be in a lot of tough spots on the turn (Obvi we just GII vs a bet otf). I think lead jamming makes sense because we don't risk making any mistakes, and we can get some hands with decent equity to fold.

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09-13-2020 , 01:31 AM

oldsilver

MTTLivePro

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 5,941

Suspect the 77 hand pre bubble is more interesting than this

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09-13-2020 , 07:31 AM

lolposting2016

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Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 2,149

Quote:

Originally Posted by deuceblocker

It’s about neutral ev bet vs check but pio plays it as a pure x then ip plays only shoves and tx is a pure call. This strategy is gonna make more sense so you can just let ip shove (correctly) with hands worse

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09-13-2020 , 07:33 AM

#10

lolposting2016

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Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 2,149

Quote:

Originally Posted by persianpunisher

You want to let ip make the mistake cuz you’re just getting it in anyway but this board reallty is just crushing bc ip range should be really tight rn so just donk jamming into this super tight range and a board where ip just is crushing you i don’t love it and also ip is almost never checking here because he just owns so hard
On this board his only checks are like p8and such
And Ip is never folding ak and aj that’s just ludicrous

Last edited by lolposting2016; 09-13-2020 at 07:38 AM.

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09-13-2020 , 09:51 AM

#11

EggsMcBluffin

MTTPIOExpert

Join Date: Feb 2019 Posts: 1,459

Donking anything is just silly OOP is at a disadvantage in every way possible (overall range advantage, top-of-range advantage, nut advantage) you just very plainly do not get leads under those conditions.

IP could have upwards of 70% equity OTF depending on how tight he is.

The way this combo makes money in this spot it checking to the opener who either gets ships against which T8 is doing not great but OK or IP is incentivized to throw out small cbets with stuff like flushes and sets (that even on mono texture are just too strong to ship and need no protection this shallow and block too many continues in OOP range) and AsAx (ditto the reason for sets) and 55-99, JJ w/o the FD, T9s, A5, A8s-A9s (which aren't strong enough to ship and for the pairs in particular for something like, say, Cbet(1bb) get plenty worse to continue). And if IP makes the mistake of declining a cbet with anything then we being to print.

x-f flop to a ship honestly seems pretty nice if you think IP lacks the finesse to use smaller sizings w/ flushes, AsAx, sets.

It's a very simple x-c/x-c/x-mix runout dependent when IP bets small and a very simple x-mix runout dependent in all nodes where IP goes large. This combo could be a sexy river probe for thin value when IP cbets small then declines a barrel.

Could lead 8's and T's that peel OTT and or OTR.

But donking anything is just bad and means you have no idea how the fundamentals of this spot works.

It's a shockingly silly blunder, you don't just get to take a combo that's not even ahead of IP's butthole-tight range (honestly prob doesn't even have 40% hot-cold equity), donk it for more pot (thus subjecting it to distribution effects [better to call, worse to fold] and making it EVEN further behind) and then shrug your shoulders and say "oh well, I had a pair and 6bb what could I do?"

Last edited by EggsMcBluffin; 09-13-2020 at 10:40 AM.

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09-13-2020 , 09:54 AM

#12

EggsMcBluffin

MTTPIOExpert

Join Date: Feb 2019 Posts: 1,459

Quote:

Originally Posted by persianpunisher

Literally none of that is ever going to happen in practice.

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09-13-2020 , 12:10 PM

#13

Honigkuchenx

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2019 Posts: 208

I watched a couple of his WSOP streams & he is constantly telling people that he only really cares about winning a bracelet, since he has tons of side bets going. He stated a couple of times that he would be gambling in spots, he normally would not otherwise. I am aware a lot of people hate his guts, but giving a guy **** for gambling in a spot where he obv doesn’t care about the min cash just seems kind of silly.

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09-13-2020 , 01:17 PM

#14

persianpunisher

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Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 2,818

Quote:

Originally Posted by EggsMcBluffin

Literally none of that is ever going to happen in practice.

You think if villain is some satty winner they’re gonna call off there? This is a massive field donkament with lots of bad players.

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09-13-2020 , 01:31 PM

#15

jjjou812

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 5,632

Quote:

Originally Posted by EggsMcBluffin

IP could have upwards of 70% equity OTF depending on how tight he is.

It's a very simple x-c/x-c/x-mix runout dependent when IP bets small and a very simple x-mix runout dependent in all nodes where IP goes large.

Eggs, I think I “understand” the removed parts of your post but I am lost at your simple runout scenario with 6.5 bbs with 5.4 bbs in the post. Assuming villian bets flop and you are putting him on upwards of 70% equity, how are you calling a flop bet?

If you do call flop, are you ever really folding with 5.5 bbs or less on the subsequent streets?

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09-13-2020 , 01:52 PM

#16

deuceblocker

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Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 3,383

Getting AK/AJ without a spade to fold is not that much of an achievement. Those hands are about 37% to win and putting in 35% of the money. There is a problem in the whatever folds is probably folding correctly.

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09-13-2020 , 02:02 PM

#17

erc007

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 2,227

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2pairsof2s

MBN to have a HERO...

If I weren't so old/jaded/cynical...I could have a few too (tho the world would have to be running pretty short on human beings for DN to make my short list.)

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09-13-2020 , 02:28 PM

#18

EggsMcBluffin

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Join Date: Feb 2019 Posts: 1,459

His overall range has ~65-70% equity depending on just how tight he is, prob closer to 65% in most universes unless it's persianpunisher who apparently folds pair+FD combos, 2over+bwy combos post bubble covering the shorty by a 2:1 margin and getting 2:1--he'd prob open tight enough to yield ~70% equity with range as IP player. BB defender has a ton of air. That's mentioned to illustrate how silly it is to have a leading range here.

T8 prob has ~35-40% equity and yes you can call 2 small bets and fold to a triple. Once he bets small OTF OOP gets to titrate his range down mostly to tens and traps namely flushes. So IP is pretty well-parried from just willy-nilly barreling 5c5d, 7h7c, 9h9d, AK, AJ, KJ et al so by the time he does lay down a triple he's gonna be mostly overpairs, boats, QT, flushes and air--but mostly the made stuff--and OOP's flushes aren't an autopilot xr this shallow at any point so OOP should have plenty of flushes to justify a fold at least sometimes.

Certainly gonna need to snap some Tx OTR getting 4:1 but you're not just autoclicking call and chalking it up to a cooler when you lose.

And holy ****ing **** that slow peel of the river is ******ed and so tilting is that a schtick of this site?

Last edited by EggsMcBluffin; 09-13-2020 at 02:37 PM.

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09-13-2020 , 04:35 PM

#19

lolposting2016

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Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 2,149

Quote:

Originally Posted by deuceblocker

Deuce what are you talking about itt for realz man you’re just spewing

Quote

09-13-2020 , 04:37 PM

#20

lolposting2016

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Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 2,149

Quote:

Originally Posted by EggsMcBluffin

The small bet ip didn’t really look like a thing in the sim I ran you just jam everything that connects with the broadways and check the pps that are lower than tx

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09-13-2020 , 04:39 PM

#21

lolposting2016

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Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 2,149

Quote:

Originally Posted by erc007

MBN to have a HERO...

If I weren't so old/jaded/cynical...I could have a few too (tho the world would have to be running pretty short on human beings for DN to make my short list.)

Having a hero in the poker world just means you’re a loser imo but that’s just me negz might be one of the biggest fxcking tools in the western us

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09-13-2020 , 04:45 PM

#22

deuceblocker

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Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 3,383

Quote:

Originally Posted by lolposting2016

Deuce what are you talking about itt for realz man you’re just spewing

No, I said that it is only slightly better for you in chip EV if UTG folds to the push with AK/AJ no spade, than if he calls. Those hands are 37% against BB's hand, which is just slightly over the pot odds they are getting to call.

If UTG folds to the push, he is almost always making the correct decision if he knew BB's hand, and isn't getting the right price to call with his hand against 2nd pair.

I don't know if you don't understand what I am saying, don't think it is important, think it is obvious, or don't agree.

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09-13-2020 , 04:48 PM

#23

lolposting2016

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Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 2,149

Utg is never folding ak or aj

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09-13-2020 , 04:52 PM

#24

deuceblocker

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Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 3,383

Quote:

Originally Posted by lolposting2016

Utg is never folding ak or aj

I agree. My point is that it is hard to find a hand in UTG's likely open range which he folds to the push for which he is making a significant mistake if he knew BB's cards.

Quote

09-13-2020 , 04:56 PM

#25

EggsMcBluffin

MTTPIOExpert

Join Date: Feb 2019 Posts: 1,459

Quote:

Originally Posted by lolposting2016

The small bet ip didn’t really look like a thing in the sim I ran you just jam everything that connects with the broadways and check the pps that are lower than tx

There's really really obvious incentive to milk flushes, sets, and weak PPs

Code:

 #TreeBuilding#V2
#Range0#AA:0.0433959961,55:0.434082031,44,33,22,AJs:0.0096511841,AT,A9,A8,A7,A6,A5,A4,A3s,A2s,KQs:0.0092544556,KQo:0.550537229,KJs:0.0585021973,KJo:0.980346799,KT,K9,K8,K7s,K6s,K5s,K4s,K3s,K2s,QJ,QT,Q9,Q8,Q7s,Q6s,Q5s:0.99999994,Q4s:0.99999994,Q3s:0.99999994,Q2s,JT,J9,J8,J7s,J6s:0.99999994,J5s,J4s,J3s,J2s,T9,T8s,T7s,T6s:0.99999994,T5s,T4s,T3s,T2s,98,97s,96s,95s,94s,93s,92s,87,86s,85s:0.99999994,84s,83s,82s,76,75s:0.99999994,74s,73s,72s,65,64s:0.99999994,63s,62s,54,53s,52s,43s,42s,32s
#Range1#AA,KK,QQ,JJ,TT,99,88,77,66:0.5,AK,AQ,AJs,AJo:0.5,ATs,A9s:0.25,A8s:0.25,KQs,KQo:0.5,KJs:0.5,KTs:0.5,QJs:0.5,QTs:0.5,JTs:0.5
#Board#Qs Ts 4s
#Pot#550
#EffectiveStacks#650
#AllinThreshold#80
#AddAllinOnlyIfLessThanThisTimesThePot#500
#MinimumBetsize#100
#UseUnifiedRaiseAfterRaise#True
#UnifiedRaiseAfterRaise#50
#CapEnabled#True
#Cap#5
#CapMode#NoLimit
#RemovedLines#Check, Check, Bet 12.5@Check, Check, Check, Bet 12.5@Check, Check, Bet 25@Check, Check, Check, Bet 25@Check, Check, Bet 37.5@Check, Check, Check, Bet 37.5@Check, Check, Bet 50@Check, Check, Check, Bet 50@Check, Check, Bet 75@Check, Check, Check, Bet 75@Check, Check, Bet 100@Check, Check, Check, Bet 100@Check, Check, Bet 150@Check, Check, Check, Bet 150@Check, Check, Check, Check, Bet 12.5@Check, Check, Check, Check, Check, Bet 12.5@Check, Check, Check, Check, Bet 25@Check, Check, Check, Check, Check, Bet 25@Check, Check, Check, Check, Bet 37.5@Check, Check, Check, Check, Check, Bet 37.5@Check, Check, Check, Check, Bet 50@Check, Check, Check, Check, Check, Bet 50@Check, Check, Check, Check, Bet 75@Check, Check, Check, Check, Check, Bet 75@Check, Check, Check, Check, Bet 100@Check, Check, Check, Check, Check, Bet 100@Check, Check, Check, Check, Bet 150@Check, Check, Check, Check, Check, Bet 150@@@@@@@@@@
#ExtraLines#Check, Check, Bet 100c@Check, Check, Check, Bet 100c@Check, Check, Bet 200c@Check, Check, Check, Bet 200c@Check, Check, Bet 300c@Check, Check, Check, Bet 300c@Check, Check, Bet 425c@Check, Check, Check, Bet 425c@Check, Check, Bet 550c@Check, Check, Check, Bet 550c@Check, Check, Bet 825c@Check, Check, Check, Bet 825c@Check, Check, Check, Check, Bet 100c@Check, Check, Check, Check, Check, Bet 100c@Check, Check, Check, Check, Bet 200c@Check, Check, Check, Check, Check, Bet 200c@Check, Check, Check, Check, Bet 300c@Check, Check, Check, Check, Check, Bet 300c@Check, Check, Check, Check, Bet 425c@Check, Check, Check, Check, Check, Bet 425c@Check, Check, Check, Check, Bet 550c@Check, Check, Check, Check, Check, Bet 550c@Check, Check, Check, Check, Bet 825c@Check, Check, Check, Check, Check, Bet 825c@
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#TurnConfig.BetSize#12.5, 25, 37.5, 50, 75, 100, 150
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#TurnConfig.AddAllin#True
#TurnConfig.DonkBetSize#33, 75
#RiverConfig.BetSize#12.5, 25, 37.5, 50, 75, 100, 150, 200, 250
#RiverConfig.RaiseSize#33, 66, 100
#RiverConfig.AddAllin#True
#RiverConfig.DonkBetSize#33, 75
#FlopConfigIP.BetSize#100c, 200c, 300c, 425c, 550c, 825c
#FlopConfigIP.RaiseSize#33, 66, 100
#FlopConfigIP.AddAllin#True
#TurnConfigIP.BetSize#12.5, 25, 37.5, 50, 75, 100, 150
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#RiverConfigIP.BetSize#12.5, 25, 37.5, 50, 75, 100, 150, 200, 250
#RiverConfigIP.RaiseSize#33, 66, 100
#RiverConfigIP.AddAllin#True

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