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10-17-2018 , 02:27 PM
#1
Sezam
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centurion
Join Date: Feb 2018 Posts: 121
partypoker - 10500/21000 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 9.73 BB (VPIP: 17.20, PFR: 11.22, 3Bet Preflop: 6.21, Hands: 1,229)
MP: 10.84 BB (VPIP: 23.53, PFR: 14.12, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 85)
CO: 23.31 BB (VPIP: 29.96, PFR: 18.48, 3Bet Preflop: 10.29, Hands: 469)
BTN: 77.52 BB (VPIP: 38.89, PFR: 29.63, 3Bet Preflop: 7.41, Hands: 56)
SB: 40.33 BB (VPIP: 26.75, PFR: 17.42, 3Bet Preflop: 10.57, Hands: 638)
Hero (BB): 16.18 BB

6 players post ante of 0.12 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.23 BB) Hero has T K

fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 40.21 BB and is all-in, hero ???

V is a reg
there are 24 ITM my position is 19/25
what range do you call in that spot?
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10-17-2018 , 02:46 PM
#2
wynner88888
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old hand
Join Date: Oct 2018 Posts: 1,330
SB obviously has a ridiculously wide range in this spot so it’s up to you whether or not the good chance to double up is more important than a definite cash?
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10-17-2018 , 02:49 PM
#3
wynner88888
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old hand
Join Date: Oct 2018 Posts: 1,330
You’re only 66% favourite against 89os so you’ll lose a third of the time even against a lot of weak hands. I would cash and wait for another chance to jam
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10-17-2018 , 10:58 PM
#4
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Captain Underpairs
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grinder
Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 420
KTs is a call otherwise you're folding like 95% plus of your hands here. That feels tight.

7.4%, TT+ ATs+ AJo+ KTs+ QJs seems like a tight middle ground.

This is probably more my vibe:

13.7%, 44+ A9s+ A5s-A4s AJo+ K9s+ KJo+ QTs+ JTs

He should be shoving this range:

56.6%, 22+ Kx+ Q2s+ Q7o+ J3s+ J8o+ T5s+ T8o+ 95s+ 97o+ 85s+ 87o 74s+ 64s+ 53s+

Obviously if the player has a major gap between his stats then it's likely he doesn't know **** about shoving ranges so you would have to tighten up considerably.
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10-18-2018 , 03:31 AM
#5
Georgek21
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newbie
Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 29
UTG and MP are both on 10bb. Would be crazy for us to go out now on the direct bubble. I am most likely calling A10+ 77+. Loosen up if SB is doing it a lot. Soon as the bubble bursts or we get shorter then loosen up more to include more Broadway and pairs.


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10-18-2018 , 05:21 AM
#6
bearer
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old hand
Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 1,688
It's Party, do you really wanna bust worst place after playing 6 hours to get to this point?
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10-18-2018 , 10:52 AM
#7
Black Aces 518's Avatar
Black Aces 518
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 9,462
Seems a very clear fold given our stack position. Calling here is +cEV, but definitely -$EV.
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10-18-2018 , 01:30 PM
#8
3for3poker
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old hand
Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 1,503
Fold. Pay the penalty for a medium stack.
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10-18-2018 , 02:50 PM
#9
bearer
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old hand
Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 1,688
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3for3poker
Fold. Pay the penalty for a medium stack.
That's a nice way of looking at it.
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10-22-2018 , 09:09 AM
#10
Sezam
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centurion
Join Date: Feb 2018 Posts: 121
ok so what range would be call here? AJo ATs 88+ ? or even more tight?
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10-22-2018 , 10:28 AM
#11
jjpregler
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old hand
Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 1,974
I think I would estimate the ICM pressure is maybe about 1.75:1, maybe more, maybe a little less. I can just estimate for the average stack at an average MTT. But there is no way to know for sure without a full payout structure and every stack. Your direct pot odds are 1.18:1.

If he is shoving 56% as suggested above, and adjusting for the ICM estimate it would suggest a call range of 88+, ATs+, and AQ+.
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10-22-2018 , 10:33 AM
#12
user12345
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Pooh-Bah
Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 3,737
None have pronounced - bubble factor.

What's min cash relative to buyin?
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10-22-2018 , 12:42 PM
#13
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cizixap
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adept
Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 1,027
^^ this! let's say SB pushes AT. KTs equity against AT is roughly 60%. Hence, if the bubble factor is greater than 1.5, we should fold.
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10-22-2018 , 06:33 PM
#14
jjpregler
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old hand
Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 1,974
Quote:
Originally Posted by user12345
None have pronounced - bubble factor.

What's min cash relative to buyin?
Right above you! Except I call it ICM pressure instead of bubble factor. Same thing.
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