Hi there,
Ok, round 2 lets dive in.
Disclaimer: I'd like to say that I don't want this to become an ego battle, my point is try to provide the best analysis I can right now using the models that are available and learn with the feedbacks and new ideas.
Using people feedback which pointed out some mistakes in my first analysis I'm going to give it a another shot trying to improve my methods. Another thing is that if questions will always be there to be answered and I challenge you to try to answer this questions and provide values for us instead of just coming here saying what you think without backing it up, not that you need to just that we can have a much better discussion.
New version includes:
* Vilan profile update
* 3 way solver spot using Monker Solver
* Database now has 87 millions hands
* Screenshots compilation
* No random hands in villans donk, mostly value and strong draws
GTO
The ranges used were GTO which I belive is a good starting point:
https://prnt.sc/153hn26
Setup and accuracy, if you'd like more infos about the betsizes of the tree send me pm I can share, if you are not familiar with monker the solver it uses small bets instead of big bets to build the trees
https://prnt.sc/153nal1
So in the GTO world as we have seen 2 way, 3 way BB has no incentive to lead and his leading frequencie is close to 0
https://prnt.sc/153ne3o
As we are going to move on, let's just take a quick look at what we are suppose to bet if BB checks
https://prnt.sc/153nhl5
We bet ~10% and solver choose hands that retain a lot of equity and hands that need protection as well.
Population analysis
Ok, let's change the player profile and see what a snug player is leading in our 85 millions hands database (no pko, buy-in 6-33).
Here's the summary, total donk, donk by texture and donk range composition on mid boards, this reports took in consideration all situations wich vilan donk so it includes multiway, as note this vilan is WAY tighter than the last vilan I choose, almost never donks but on mid boards even the snugs still leads ~4%
https://prnt.sc/154br2j
This is the range I decided to use as donk, the frequencie reached 4% is fairly much more value heavy than the database suggests
https://prnt.sc/154ch4f
Results are not what I expect lmao, changing the player profile made a great impact on the ranges since now villan is leading 4% and on the other simulation it was roughly 18%, let's check it out
Monker almost never raises vs vilans super strong donk
https://prnt.sc/154kzam
I wasn't convinced and did the same situation in PIO to see what he does and....
https://prnt.sc/154l1q1
Same **** =[]
So let's sum this up if you are facing a fish you can certainly raise but if you have information that this player is really snug you can start folding QQ (o.o) even ACES! So yeah was worth the time because I could learn how to adapt against really really tight players and also really interesting to see the equilibrium change when we have a much more looser player. In sum I was wrong in the first analysis if the player is snug if it was a fish without too much hand raising is always a weapon you should consider in your arseal. About the 3 way situation it was clear that the equity distribution was the same for the BB and EP ranges, what was expected, but the equity share was small, what was also expected.
This is the donk range I gave villan in pio
https://prnt.sc/154lfps
I feel humbled now and I'd like to thank for the inputs. If you liked this post and is a pro grinder feel free to hop in my discord, I'm always there and I do study everyday a bunch of stuff.
https://discord.gg/HGZrZR7BWD
Best regards, GGron
