PokerStars - 12500/25000 Ante 2500 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 50.59 BB (VPIP: 13.64, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 22.22, Hands: 22)
UTG: 36.74 BB (VPIP: 24.14, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 13.33, Hands: 29)
UTG+1: 25.65 BB (VPIP: 42.86, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
MP: 17.04 BB (VPIP: 10.34, PFR: 3.57, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 29)
CO: 64.09 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 30)
BTN: 15.98 BB (VPIP: 17.24, PFR: 18.52, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 29)
Hero (SB): 33.07 BB

7 players post ante of 0 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.2 BB) Hero has T 7

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 0.5 BB, BB raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.7 BB, 2 players) 3 8 4
Hero checks, BB checks

Turn: (6.7 BB, 2 players) 3
Hero bets 2.6 BB, BB calls 2.6 BB

River: (11.9 BB, 2 players) 6
Hero?

Spoiler:

bets 5.15 BB

Did got only the read of Villain that he did recently a 5k score and was for long time on a no score bink....so he was somewhat hyped i can imagine.
As well as he isnt a super strong player we can assume that for sure.

I will limp whole range vs this Big stack.
tbh, the flat is ok. The limp call is as well ok if proceeding careful or got decent clue of what is going on. Was pretty much leaning towards folding but theese pots are so huge at this stage. I think there where somewhat like >100 player left.

So i think we got little post flop edge tbh.
Idk if he is balanced in this preflop spot, i lean towards straightforward strategy he will aply.

So with the price we getting i called.

there is no leading range on this dry flop, or its so minor we can ingore it.
His check back signals showdown value.

How we wanna proceed vs this?
I think the check call turn will be too tricky bec we have to lead river which is suboptimal.
The checkraise turn is decent option, we can for certain fold out his King and Ace highs.
To go for double barrel, which i will with draws, some pockets as well as 8x which hits sb range in this spot quite nice is for certain the lower risk line in terms of getting x/r call from Villain and barrel river.

So its a safe river, exept he got K6s or A6. But all in all he wont got a pair besides he is rly capable.

So which size we wanna use if we chosse to bluff?

Two options:
60% which is polarizing to 8x+ = he needs to have decent bet sizing reads.
35% which is a crying call bet = a mathematical approach will lead to call from Villain...

Do we wanna take this risk this late in this phase of this mtt? Esp. vs a loose cannon ish type of?(russian player)

Thanks
GL

Limp calling T7o in the SB is pretty bad. Post flop I probably wouldn't be firing turn.

I don't really see what that turn bet accomplishes? We would be repping very thin value and villain could pretty much call his entire range thus putting you in dicey spots such as this one OTR. Also limp calling 107o seems bad.

Most weak players tend to call too often in dubious situations where raise/fold are the smarter choices. Take them to value town when you have a hand and let yourself get paid very generously.

I know it's tempting to get involved in more pots against a weak opponent and to unleash your full battery of moves. But if Villain just doesn't like to find folds, you're attacking him with a very marginal hand at his point of greatest resistance.

You were most of the way toward getting the right read. If he's feeling frisky with rare winnings, let go of T7 either right away or after you miss the flop.

Thank you buddy for nice dynamic / foundation analysis. Theese theorys are very important and not found in gto solver right?
GL

Sorry to get under your skin. My fault for not thinking twice about tone. Hey, if you'd said: "I have no reads on Villain," this would have been a pure GTO conversation and I'd have left it to wiser folks. But you repeatedly go to the trouble of trying to identify his playing style -- "loose cannon," "somewhat hyped," not "super strong," etc. -- and then press ahead with a line that's uniquely vulnerable to his stubbornness with meh cards.

Your narrative on the turn/river is an honest effort to find a profitable line in a messy situation. Thanks for taking us through it. Still, if some of this was foreseeable preflop, did you need to let the hand get this far?

Also, given your (very thoughtful) analysis of bet sizing at the river, what led you to split the difference between big/small on your actual river play? Were you hoping for a different outcome? If so, what and why?

(1)np buddy i dont take it personal....yeah i am a tryhard i guess
but its sure somewhat a tiderope walk
and yeah its was may always my ´problem´ to win everyhand without any decent equity advantages card wise....have for sure in the past the thinkin i need to create situations because good cards can everyone play....

(2)no for sure not. your right. but (there is always a ´but´ ) it he is so foreseeable i´ll push the edge but it didnt worked out this time. LAG sytle is a swingy style. But its not super profitable so avoidable your right.

(3) the villains perception. yeah just his thinkin like this is such a small bet he never bets this with air. or he sees pod odds and just cosider 1 to 3 ish i´ll be good...
for sure it depends on my reputation. but when i think about the situation its rly avoidable dont have to push the edges so far...man its tricky.

Thanks for ur time

GLGL

Preflop, I think a limp is ok but it depends on the opponent. If BB is raising a lot, I think you might just go for a raise or fold.

On the turn, I think if you bet here you have to bet bigger. Bet 3.5 - 4 BB. You bet less than half pot on a board when you can't really have much.

River I would probably give up here, unless image/history dictates otherwise.

yeah the raise pre is ok. but do got a limp 95 percent strat... and if i raise fold pre can also use the money to see a flop with rather more complicated ranges...

the bigger bet is good point.

i used flopzilla it said he got a high or no made hand like 89 percent so my stupid bet sizing cost me lot of money.... but i choosen it bec i would be choosen it with 8x+ ... so to balance i should use same but vs weakish opponent shouldnt be that balanced and just go for full exploit...that was the biggest mistake i am certain in the hole hand.