Hello,

we are 20/180 of 22k+ entries in the colossus 30 euro on Winamax.
New tables 2 orbit ago so only 13 hands on vilain, he has played 50% of the hands and 3bet me 3.2x from the same position one orbit ago.

Blind 25k/50k/5k ante 6 handed

Hero 80BB ,UTG open 2.4x with 89cc
Vilain cover us in MP flat, fold til the BB who flat.

Pot 9bb
FLOP Js 9d 8s

Hero bet 5 bb, vilain raise 12bb, Hero calls

Pot 33bb
Turn 2h

Hero check, vilain bet 19bb, hero calls

Pot 71bb
River 5c

Hero check, vilain jam 55b eff, Hero ?



i think i should have bet the flop larger with this combo, his sizing when he raise is weird, looks like QTs or combo draw, as played we are close to the top of our range with one of our best bluffcatcher..

Thoughts ?

Yeah, maybe a touch bigger on the flop, but it's OK. Turn - fine. River - call. Sucks if he's got it but we beat a lot of missed fd's and also a lot of Jx including QJ and JT that might take this line.

Agreed, slightly larger on very wet flop. Looks good after. Can't fold underrepped 2p on that board. I actually think it's one of your worst calling hands, though, not the best.

looks fine as played and V can certainly go tropical for value with worse or as a bluff. great runout.

I swear I'm not a nit (not that there's anything wrong with that) but is this a good open UTG? This deep we're gonna get flatted or reraised by better clubs as often as we ever will (I can think of at least 16 better club combos {AcTc+, Ac7c-Ac2c, KcTc+, QcTc+, JcTc}), so RIO are in play. We're completely OOP so equity realization is as low as it'll ever be. Also, one of our straights is "dirty" in the sense the [TJQ] gives {AK} bwy and of course we're always getting VPIPed against by {AK}.

You block mostly all the hands that conceivably beat you (specifically the 8 combos of {JJ, 99, 88, J9s, even J8s}), sadly not the 4 combos of {QTs}). Sometimes he can have {7s6s}. So he has maybe 13 nutted combos at most. Hard to put him on {T7s}

And he definitely can have some bluffs, some natural ones would be {AsTs-AsQs, KsTs, KsQs} which is 5 combos. I'm sure there are others, but they're not immediately obvious to me. Can he be really polar on the flop and raise {54s} or other combos like that?

Think you're gonna be hard pressed to find worse value in his range. Overpairs--they're prob reraising pre, maybe {QQ} plays this way but not always. Naked jacks? I don't know, you can have overpairs yourself, a naked jack jamming the river is pretty much never getting called by worse, he'd have to be really spewy to shove here with a jack.

All that being said, you're getting 2.3:1 so you only need to find like 7-8 combos of bluffs or worse value hands to make this a pretty juicy +EV call, and your hand is very underrepped. It's probably a call, but not fistpumping by any means.

I think flop bet should be bigger, more like 7bb. Rest is good. River that might mean the end of your tournament you gotta call vs this villain. Had he been less aggressive hands on the two orbits you could argue for a fold but in this particular case he got you cornered out you gotta go for it. +1 range analysis by jl121, though i'd add 1010 turned into a bluff.

I might come over the top on turn but he is not taking this line with j10 or qj ever. River is a fold I think although getting it in on turn is fine but is this spot I guess he has it. People are going to run less massive bluffs in huge equity spots like this in general

Hello,

Agree with rm81 for the line with QJ,JT, he never plays this way imo.
I got a lot a response of this type ( spot like this are underbluffed, specially this deep where he might just flat his draw flop).

I got also responses type c/call flop given our hand has not such a great equity againt mp's range (and on the futures runouts it might decrease or be counterfeit etc..) and also the fact that we dont want to play big pots with our equity this deep.

Thought on this ?

Definitely prefer starting with a check with range on this flop.

I think I'd mostly x/raise flop and would expect villain to play reasonably straightforwardly after that (so I'd fold to any raises for the rest of the hand).

x/call could be superior as bottom 2 is not that great a hand and raising doesn't achieve a ton of protection. I don't know.

^^
C/r/f bottom 2p sounds like a fundamental mistake, but I realize its pbb not what you meant.

Generally an ok spot for MP to playback at you so I would call on clean runout.
He can have AA for value, JJ should be heavily discounted, you block other sets and not much else makes sense.

Yeah he can't really continue with any crushed value hands vs x/r and it's nice to have a hand in our x/call range that can call a triple unimproved.

Pre is standard at these stacks. I think we obviously need to c-bet fewer hands on this flop but 2p is certainly good enough to bet, 6K-7K seems right. There are plenty of hands we can get value from.

As played, even if we give villain JJ and J9s we're realistically only talking about 11 combos that beat us (JJ/99/88/QTs/J9s), 15 if you want to give villain 76s as well. There are certainly enough flush draws and the occasional Tx to make this worth a call, and you can't entirely discount AA here as well.

We are 80bbs deep playing 6 handed. Obv open is obv.

I open this UTG 9 handed

i would say 7/8 people on avg won't shove the river with QJ, not to mention JT especially not so deep in 22k ppl tournament when they can be clearly beat. It's thin af

i'm fine with our line altough I prefer betting turn, would check some Jx/TT/overpairs OTT as 89 seems like a clear value/protection cb ott to me, not to mention that he' should probably 3bet some of the QTs combos here. problem is that I expect him to go bet turn/check river with a ton of his range so that's one more reason why I don't like letting IP having initiative ott. as played very clear x call x call altough I'm not that happy about it

Maybe its not clear on my post, sorry if its the case but he is raising me on the flop, so there is no point to take back the lead on turn.
He is never going to raise on the flop with QJ,JT i think if he want to bluff he can turn them into a bluff turn/river.

jesus, i misread the hand completely