I had a hand yesterday on a live knockout tournament and I want to share it with you and receive your comments on it. It is a 220 tournament 150 for the prize pool, 50 bounty.

Level: 400/800/50
BB has around 17K
HJ has around 23K
Hero at BTN has 33K

Hero has KhQs .
All fold to HJ, he opens to 2100, I call, BB calls.
Flop: Ah Jh 7h
BB Check, HJ bet 3000, I call, BB jams all-in 15K, HJ tanks around 2-3 minutes and reshoves 20K.

What we do in such spot?
Maybe I am not right, but I was thinking the following:
- Due to the live tells I do not believe HJ has a set;
- BB is tricky player and I expect him to have made hands, draws or 2 pair, sets not likely.
- If they do not have heart in hands I am a clear call, having 36-40%
- I assume BB has a flush, but I still can get the bounty of the HJ, being down to 30-32% win.

Is it +EV to make the call here?

I don't think villain started with 25 if he's shoving 20? He's in with 5100 already before shove?

I'd probably argue that I think this is a 3b pre to say 5k.

As played, pot's simply too big now. If we give our villains exactly what we don't want; say bb seted and HJ has a made flush, we're at 23% roughly.

Offered 18k to win 63, it's still a call even if villains are superstrong, which they aren't a lot. Make one of them for AxQh and A10, we're up to 40%

Not in love with how it played out though and I'd prob would have wanted a better spot 45 bb deep.

Is it a progressive bounty? Otherwise I think it's fairly irrelevant, but not sure here.

Its roughly 18,000 to win ~46,000. About 5:2 pot odds (or ~28%). If your 30%-32% estimate is right to win and factoring in the bounties I think its a fairly easy call.

If HJ doesn't have a flush (which I assume is part of the live read) we have straight outs as well as flush outs for his bounty and 6,000 chips.

The bigger problem for me in decisions like this is hitting the flush after I fold. I just kiss the rest of the tourney goodbye.

Have to call. Would be able to fold KxQh because of the chances that we are already dead, or that we need a non-heart T to win, but given we have the nut draw, and other outs against sets/2p, must call, even in standard tourney, bounties make it pretty easy.

If you want to properly account for the value of the bounties, we need to know the size of the starting stacks. Your event had $150 for the regular payouts, and $50 for the bounties. If you had started with stacks of 15K, then a bounty is essentially the same as 5K in chips. Thus, when you do the math on this call, just pretend there is another 10K in the pot (5K from each bounty).

As it was, you were calling about 18K more to win about 45K in the immediate pot. Bounties might make that 18K to win 55K. Seems like a clear call even if the bounty value is a lot less than 5K per bounty.

Cheers, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

20K starting chips.

Op don't mention where we're at in tourney.
$ev should dramatically impact this thinking?

Skickat från min Moto G (5S) Plus via Tapatalk

^^ This as played, you are getting great price on nut flush draw 28% vs 30-32% equity - this alone makes it a call. Now with $EV this is an absolute call.

BUT

I would 3bet pre vs HJ open to ~6k