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Mid-High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of mid-high stakes MTT strategy

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Old 07-18-2018, 12:59 AM   #1
Chief_h
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Cooler or fold?

Should I find a fold button on the river or is it just a cooler?

    Party, $30 Buy-in (1,250/2,500 blinds, 310 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    SB: 123,096 (49.2 bb)
    BB: 228,668 (91.5 bb)
    UTG+2: 286,018 (114.4 bb)
    MP1: 107,440 (43 bb)
    MP2: 86,977 (34.8 bb)
    Hero (MP3): 150,646 (60.3 bb)
    CO: 54,083 (21.6 bb)
    BTN: 71,440 (28.6 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 9 K
    3 folds, Hero raises to 5,625, 3 folds, BB calls 3,125

    Flop: (14,980) 2 Q 7 (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets 5,992, BB raises to 14,890, Hero calls 8,898

    Turn: (44,760) T (2 players)
    BB bets 22,380, Hero calls 22,380

    River: (89,520) T (2 players)
    BB bets 62,500, Hero calls 62,500

    Spoiler:
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    Old 07-18-2018, 03:26 AM   #2
    dcm91
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    Re: Cooler or fold?

    I'd bet more otf. As played your range looks pretty polarized to flushes (and occasionally better), so unless you have a read on villain being capable of wilding out with worse than AsXs I think it's a pretty clear fold.
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    Old 07-18-2018, 03:44 AM   #3
    daviid
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    Cooler or fold?

    extremely std hand, you even beat vbets and sizings arent even remotely big enough to consider folding. you could def make a case for checking back flop but whatever.

    if you fold this, does it mean that you call boats only? thats simply way too tight esp when you might take different lines with some boat combos. you are too high up in your range, pay it off.
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    Old 07-18-2018, 06:38 AM   #4
    dcm91
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    Re: Cooler or fold?

    What value hands do we beat here? I don't see smaller flushes raising otf or AQ/KQ/QJ going for such thin value on a flushed and paired board in a $30 freezeout
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    Old 07-18-2018, 10:19 AM   #5
    nomalice
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    Re: Cooler or fold?

    +1 david
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    Old 07-18-2018, 10:20 AM   #6
    daviid
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    Re: Cooler or fold?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by dcm91 View Post
    What value hands do we beat here? I don't see smaller flushes raising otf or AQ/KQ/QJ going for such thin value on a flushed and paired board in a $30 freezeout


    why cant villain have smaller flushes? what do you think how villain constructs his flop x/r range? do you think villain bets 100% of sets ott? villain can surely checkraise worse fds otf.
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    Old 07-18-2018, 11:14 AM   #7
    poloplaya1414
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    Re: Cooler or fold?

    No way we fold on river here. I think the flop sizing was fine.

    I would jam the turn. We should get paid off by sets and weaker flushes.
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    Old 07-18-2018, 11:16 AM   #8
    poloplaya1414
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    Re: Cooler or fold?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by daviid View Post
    why cant villain have smaller flushes? what do you think how villain constructs his flop x/r range? do you think villain bets 100% of sets ott? villain can surely checkraise worse fds otf.
    I actually do think villain bets 100% of sets ott. He really should only have 22 and 77 though.
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    Old 07-18-2018, 03:52 PM   #9
    PhatPots
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    Re: Cooler or fold?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by poloplaya1414 View Post
    No way we fold on river here. I think the flop sizing was fine.

    I would jam the turn. We should get paid off by sets and weaker flushes.
    I was thinking the same thing. You might even get called by a Queen.
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    Old 07-18-2018, 06:38 PM   #10
    Chief_h
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    Re: Cooler or fold?

    Villain's range when he bets turn should be 22 (3 combos), 77 (3 combos), suited Aces (8 combos), lower suited hearts about (5 combos). A few spews probably. With the hearts out and in our hand V has more Ahxh combos than other lower two heart hands.

    I did not want to jam turn as he would find a fold with lower flushes that way. Once the board paired on the river I am losing also to all the boats. So I guess I should have found the fold button.
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    Old 07-18-2018, 06:46 PM   #11
    nomalice
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    Re: Cooler or fold?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Chief_h View Post
    Villain's range when he bets turn should be 22 (3 combos), 77 (3 combos), suited Aces (8 combos), lower suited hearts about (5 combos). A few spews probably. With the hearts out and in our hand V has more Ahxh combos than other lower two heart hands.

    I did not want to jam turn as he would find a fold with lower flushes that way. Once the board paired on the river I am losing also to all the boats. So I guess I should have found the fold button.
    Q2s Q7s 72s
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    Old 07-19-2018, 12:43 AM   #12
    UntimelyBluff
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    Re: Cooler or fold?

    deprnding on villain it’s hard to say that he would just find a fold with a lower flush if you just put it a slight raise, flushes are difficult to lay down for some people even the baby ones. What is more likely to happen is he’ll fold the small flush when 4 to a suit hits on the river. As played this is almost next to impossible to lay down online without a heavy amount of information, live you’d have to be on top of your game to even considering laying it down.
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    Old 07-19-2018, 01:31 AM   #13
    Chief_h
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    Re: Cooler or fold?

    I am probably overestimating V ability to lay down a smaller flush, if I jam the turn. As nomalice pointed out V could have two pair hand sometimes as well, hard to know which rags he might call pf with (maybe 4 combos). So we have 8 combos of nut flushes that beat us and about 15 combos of other stuff. Looks like jam on the turn. As played though, on the river V would probably not bet his weak 2 pair hands, so we are up against better hands. 14 combos of nut flushes and boats, 5 combos of lower flushes, maybe 1-2 spews. So fold river still seems correct.
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    Old 07-19-2018, 05:10 AM   #14
    daviid
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    Re: Cooler or fold?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Chief_h View Post
    I am probably overestimating V ability to lay down a smaller flush, if I jam the turn. As nomalice pointed out V could have two pair hand sometimes as well, hard to know which rags he might call pf with (maybe 4 combos). So we have 8 combos of nut flushes that beat us and about 15 combos of other stuff. Looks like jam on the turn. As played though, on the river V would probably not bet his weak 2 pair hands, so we are up against better hands. 14 combos of nut flushes and boats, 5 combos of lower flushes, maybe 1-2 spews. So fold river still seems correct.


    lol at 5 combos of lower flushes

    if your analysis was correct Ah7x would be a better call otr than Kh9h. that is not the case.
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    Old 07-19-2018, 10:47 AM   #15
    Chief_h
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    Re: Cooler or fold?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by daviid View Post
    lol at 5 combos of lower flushes

    if your analysis was correct Ah7x would be a better call otr than Kh9h. that is not the case.
    Instead of lol you could point out what lower flush combos you think V has then. K, Q, T, 9 and 2 are accounted for. Depends what he is willing to call in bb but J8, J7, 87, 86, 76, 75, 65, 64, 54, 53, 43 seems like an average range. Out of these he might not x/r the lower ones. So x/r range J8, J7, 87, 76, 75 is 5 combos. It is an estimate but should not be totally out of the ball park.
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    Old 07-19-2018, 10:53 AM   #16
    nomalice
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    Re: Cooler or fold?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Chief_h View Post
    14 combos of nut flushes and boats, 5 combos of lower flushes, maybe 1-2 spews. So fold river still seems correct.
    if that's his range folding river is incorrect.
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    Old 07-19-2018, 11:52 AM   #17
    Chief_h
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    Re: Cooler or fold?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by nomalice View Post
    if that's his range folding river is incorrect.
    No it is not. We lose 2/3 of the time, win 1/3. We need to call 60k into 150k pot so we need to win 40% of the time, not 33%.
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    Old 07-19-2018, 12:00 PM   #18
    nomalice
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    Re: Cooler or fold?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Chief_h View Post
    No it is not. We lose 2/3 of the time, win 1/3. We need to call 60k into 150k pot so we need to win 40% of the time, not 33%.
    this is basic missconception. we re calling 60 to win 210 ( pot + bet + our call)
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    Old 07-19-2018, 01:16 PM   #19
    Chief_h
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    Re: Cooler or fold?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by nomalice View Post
    this is basic missconception. we re calling 60 to win 210 ( pot + bet + our call)
    Wow. I am more rusty than I realised. Thx for clearing that up.
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    Old 07-19-2018, 03:42 PM   #20
    daviid
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    Re: Cooler or fold?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by nomalice View Post
    this is basic missconception. we re calling 60 to win 210 ( pot + bet + our call)


    i respect your posts a lot but this is completely wrong. its 60k to win 150k aka 2.5-1.
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    Old 07-19-2018, 03:52 PM   #21
    nomalice
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    Re: Cooler or fold?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by daviid View Post
    i respect your posts a lot but this is completely wrong. its 60k to win 150k aka 2.5-1.
    Funny thing is that I'm winning poker player and I live of poker for last 3 years and I was sure that what I said was right. God bless the donkaments
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    Old 07-19-2018, 04:03 PM   #22
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    Re: Cooler or fold?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by daviid View Post
    i respect your posts a lot but this is completely wrong. its 60k to win 150k aka 2.5-1.
    but again we don't need 40% equity here, as op pointed out ? we need smt around 29 ? If we get 2-1 we need 33% and if we get 3-1 we need 25% ? Is that correct ?

    I'm sorry about hijacking thread about this but it's just that I probably count right amount of equity needed to show profit anyway even that I didn't know exact equation

    edit: i'm in the middle of the session atm, will look later wtf was wrong with my way of thinking
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    Old 07-19-2018, 04:07 PM   #23
    daviid
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    Re: Cooler or fold?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by nomalice View Post
    but again we don't need 40% equity here, as op pointed out ? we need smt around 29 ? If we get 2-1 we need 33% and if we get 3-1 we need 25% ? Is that correct ?

    I'm sorry about hijacking thread about this but it's just that I probably count right amount of equity needed to show profit anyway even that I didn't know exact equation

    edit: i'm in the middle of the session atm, will look later wtf was wrong with my way of thinking


    haha no worries mate. well yeah if we get 2-1 on a call we need to win the pot 33% of the time to break even.
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    Old 07-19-2018, 06:16 PM   #24
    OMGClayDol
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    Re: Cooler or fold?

    You need 29.1348% to break even cEV wise

    The pot won includes your own chips put in..

    (Amount to call) / (total pot, if call)
    Assuming river
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    Old 07-19-2018, 08:37 PM   #25
    jpgiro
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    Re: Cooler or fold?

    Interesting spot. For me this is mostly about how often we think villain c/r vs. c/c Ahxh on the flop. If they 100% c/r Ahxh combos then it's kinda close, if they c/c sometimes then it's a relatively straightforward call.

    *Not sure I'd want to c/r a lot of flush draws as the BB on Qh7x2h as I could start overbluffing, but that's a different issue.

    Last edited by jpgiro; 07-19-2018 at 08:43 PM.
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