Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 2,000/4,000 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 53.11 BB (VPIP: 20.83, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 28.57, Hands: 24)
UTG+1: 29.42 BB (VPIP: 19.05, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 43)
MP: 46.29 BB (VPIP: 44.83, PFR: 13.79, 3Bet Preflop: 18.18, Hands: 29)
MP+1: 34.68 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 20.34, 3Bet Preflop: 9.52, Hands: 60)
CO: 66.26 BB (VPIP: 24.01, PFR: 16.79, 3Bet Preflop: 6.19, Hands: 1,000)
BTN: 19.32 BB (VPIP: 21.30, PFR: 16.35, 3Bet Preflop: 13.33, Hands: 109)
SB: 18.59 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 11.76, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 18)
Hero (BB): 35.94 BB

8 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.3 BB) Hero has 8 A

fold, fold, MP raises to 2.65 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.65 BB

Flop: (6.6 BB, 2 players) 5 T A
Hero checks, MP bets 3.3 BB, Hero calls 3.3 BB

Turn: (13.2 BB, 2 players) K
Hero checks, MP bets 6.6 BB, ???


It's deep in tourney i think about 25 players left
Don't have many hands on him so don't know how he plays
shark: https://gyazo.com/5106348fc6138473d163b0fb5bc1e260

Maybe i should just fold pre considering icm, Ax it's a good candidate to 3b bluff here but i didn't know how much he fold to 3bet so called

There are many draws on that turn so i thought about shoving turn

what do you think about that?

so, if you call OTT, the pot size will be roughly equal to your remaining stack size and folding the TP is super difficult. Prob it's OK to x/jam OTT and hate your life when V shows QJss;

Preflop flat is totally OK to me; A8o is not weak enough to 3--bet for bluff;

His stats seem pretty loose passive. What is his raise first in or steal % from this position?

it's 29 hands sample size, it's not reliable.

raise flop and happy to take it down asap

Fold pre, that's a 2.65x from early middle - defending with A8 is asking for trouble.

It's close, I personally am either check raising the flop or going into check call mode. If I decide to check call, I am calling the turn bet as well and then will reevaluate the river. If he fires another big barrel, can get rid of it, but there are plenty of draws he's barreling on the turn he picked up...so idk it's close but i'd call the turn bet and reevaluate the river.

Hi ! Reading you and OP I don't know why Hero should shove OTT

So OP says that a draw completed so he should shove...as a bluff I suppose , representing a str8 ; I don't share it but I understand it

But I don't know if I understood well your way of thinking. Ok we shove OTT because :

1) We want to bluff as OP suggests
2) We think a worse hand is going to call (?)
3) We shove for protection as possibly we have best hand and we hate a lot of river cards

UUmmm i understand your SPR reasoning but not sure about the shove , risking our life with a TP bad kicker with a loose passive player who is so much interested in the pot ....is it a worse option as other poster suggests just call and evaluate river?

Yeah, this is a turbo fold pre for me as well. If I do happen to misclick call, I think I'm folding turn, draws and all. Lots of his draws are ahead of us anyways.

I understand, but with with his 3 bet numbers and Bayes theorem, you can have some degree of educated guess on a credible range.

Here's my problem. BB has pot odds to call this against against a non-tight range. BB has equity to 3 bet this against certain ranges. Before anyone just pulls a guess out of their a@@ this to me is important information. If his passivity is confirmed with his RFI%, then yes, folding is probably best. But his 3 bet % conflicts with his VPIP/PFR gap. Even with only a sample of 29, a RFI number will give more information.

i don't like call because there are so many hands that put us in difficult situation OTR...any diamond, any spade, any J or any Q..it's 24 of 47 cards that complete possible draws and we have SPR 1 : 1 and..we dont block anything from these cards..it would be really f*cked up river..
I would rather fold than call OTT. Shove at least utilizes FE if we have some.

I just wrote a long post about small sample sizes, might be interesting for you if like math https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/s...04&postcount=5

I've read those books and I'm not arguing that this is enough of a sample size to make conclusions.

I am leaning towards not folding A8o to a small raise from MP. However, his passivity is an argument to fold. Yet, it is a small sample so I cannot trust the passivity of the VPIP/PFR stat. I am looking for just a bit more evidence to disregard the passivity and treat the player as an unknown. I would not fold A8o to an unknown MP open. I would either call or 3 bet depending on my ranges.

Nothing of what you said is a counter-argument to my position. It is exactly the same concern I have. But I also know that even small samples have have some degree of certainty. Yes, we would like 90% certainty in decisions and we need thousands of hands for that. But we have what we have. Does that mean, just ignore the HUD stats because we only have 29 hands? No, it only means that the degree of certainty is lower than we would like. But each stat is a clue. I don't trust the VPIP/PFR gap here. I am looking even for just a hint that it is a statistical anomaly.

However, if he has any limp first in stats with some raises, then yes I would lean toward passive. If he has 100% RFI, then his passive gap might be an anomaly.

Stupid hand. We're pretty behind range vs range and we look pretty draw heavy x/r ott so probably not nearly enough FE to make this work. X/r flop has some merit but we're not looking good vs a calling range. Tough spot but I don't think there's much we can do. Played just fine imo shut it down ott

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Yep , now I understand you. I would probably fold as still the shove doesn't convince me at all

Thanks for your thoughts , always very helpful