Cooler or fold? - MTT Poker Strategy - Multi Table Tournament Poker Forum

Party, $30 Buy-in (1,250/2,500 blinds, 310 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 123,096 (49.2 bb)
BB: 228,668 (91.5 bb)
UTG+2: 286,018 (114.4 bb)
MP1: 107,440 (43 bb)
MP2: 86,977 (34.8 bb)
Hero (MP3): 150,646 (60.3 bb)
CO: 54,083 (21.6 bb)
BTN: 71,440 (28.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 9

3 folds, Hero raises to 5,625, 3 folds, BB calls 3,125

Flop: (14,980) 2

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 5,992, BB raises to 14,890, Hero calls 8,898

Turn: (44,760) T

(2 players)
BB bets 22,380, Hero calls 22,380

River: (89,520) T

(2 players)
BB bets 62,500, Hero calls 62,500

Spoiler:

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07-18-2018 , 03:26 AM

dcm91

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 4,942

I'd bet more otf. As played your range looks pretty polarized to flushes (and occasionally better), so unless you have a read on villain being capable of wilding out with worse than AsXs I think it's a pretty clear fold.

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07-18-2018 , 03:44 AM

daviid

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 2,639

extremely std hand, you even beat vbets and sizings arent even remotely big enough to consider folding. you could def make a case for checking back flop but whatever.

if you fold this, does it mean that you call boats only? thats simply way too tight esp when you might take different lines with some boat combos. you are too high up in your range, pay it off.

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07-18-2018 , 06:38 AM

dcm91

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 4,942

What value hands do we beat here? I don't see smaller flushes raising otf or AQ/KQ/QJ going for such thin value on a flushed and paired board in a $30 freezeout

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07-18-2018 , 10:19 AM

nomalice

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 1,651

+1 david

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07-18-2018 , 10:20 AM

daviid

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 2,639

Quote:

Originally Posted by dcm91

What value hands do we beat here? I don't see smaller flushes raising otf or AQ/KQ/QJ going for such thin value on a flushed and paired board in a $30 freezeout

why cant villain have smaller flushes? what do you think how villain constructs his flop x/r range? do you think villain bets 100% of sets ott? villain can surely checkraise worse fds otf.

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07-18-2018 , 11:14 AM

poloplaya1414

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,972

No way we fold on river here. I think the flop sizing was fine.

I would jam the turn. We should get paid off by sets and weaker flushes.

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07-18-2018 , 11:16 AM

poloplaya1414

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,972

Quote:

Originally Posted by daviid

why cant villain have smaller flushes? what do you think how villain constructs his flop x/r range? do you think villain bets 100% of sets ott? villain can surely checkraise worse fds otf.

I actually do think villain bets 100% of sets ott. He really should only have 22 and 77 though.

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07-18-2018 , 03:52 PM

PhatPots

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 3,933

Quote:

Originally Posted by poloplaya1414

No way we fold on river here. I think the flop sizing was fine.

I would jam the turn. We should get paid off by sets and weaker flushes.

I was thinking the same thing. You might even get called by a Queen.

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07-18-2018 , 06:38 PM

#10

Chief_h

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 180

Villain's range when he bets turn should be 22 (3 combos), 77 (3 combos), suited Aces (8 combos), lower suited hearts about (5 combos). A few spews probably. With the hearts out and in our hand V has more Ahxh combos than other lower two heart hands.

I did not want to jam turn as he would find a fold with lower flushes that way. Once the board paired on the river I am losing also to all the boats. So I guess I should have found the fold button.

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07-18-2018 , 06:46 PM

#11

nomalice

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 1,651

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief_h

Q2s Q7s 72s

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07-19-2018 , 12:43 AM

#12

UntimelyBluff

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2017 Posts: 299

deprnding on villain it’s hard to say that he would just find a fold with a lower flush if you just put it a slight raise, flushes are difficult to lay down for some people even the baby ones. What is more likely to happen is he’ll fold the small flush when 4 to a suit hits on the river. As played this is almost next to impossible to lay down online without a heavy amount of information, live you’d have to be on top of your game to even considering laying it down.

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07-19-2018 , 01:31 AM

#13

Chief_h

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 180

I am probably overestimating V ability to lay down a smaller flush, if I jam the turn. As nomalice pointed out V could have two pair hand sometimes as well, hard to know which rags he might call pf with (maybe 4 combos). So we have 8 combos of nut flushes that beat us and about 15 combos of other stuff. Looks like jam on the turn. As played though, on the river V would probably not bet his weak 2 pair hands, so we are up against better hands. 14 combos of nut flushes and boats, 5 combos of lower flushes, maybe 1-2 spews. So fold river still seems correct.

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07-19-2018 , 05:10 AM

#14

daviid

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 2,639

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief_h

lol at 5 combos of lower flushes

if your analysis was correct Ah7x would be a better call otr than Kh9h. that is not the case.

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07-19-2018 , 10:47 AM

#15

Chief_h

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 180

Quote:

Originally Posted by daviid

lol at 5 combos of lower flushes

if your analysis was correct Ah7x would be a better call otr than Kh9h. that is not the case.

Instead of lol you could point out what lower flush combos you think V has then. K, Q, T, 9 and 2 are accounted for. Depends what he is willing to call in bb but J8, J7, 87, 86, 76, 75, 65, 64, 54, 53, 43 seems like an average range. Out of these he might not x/r the lower ones. So x/r range J8, J7, 87, 76, 75 is 5 combos. It is an estimate but should not be totally out of the ball park.

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07-19-2018 , 10:53 AM

#16

nomalice

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 1,651

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief_h

14 combos of nut flushes and boats, 5 combos of lower flushes, maybe 1-2 spews. So fold river still seems correct.

if that's his range folding river is incorrect.

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07-19-2018 , 11:52 AM

#17

Chief_h

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 180

Quote:

Originally Posted by nomalice

if that's his range folding river is incorrect.

No it is not. We lose 2/3 of the time, win 1/3. We need to call 60k into 150k pot so we need to win 40% of the time, not 33%.

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07-19-2018 , 12:00 PM

#18

nomalice

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 1,651

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief_h

No it is not. We lose 2/3 of the time, win 1/3. We need to call 60k into 150k pot so we need to win 40% of the time, not 33%.

this is basic missconception. we re calling 60 to win 210 ( pot + bet + our call)

Quote

07-19-2018 , 01:16 PM

#19

Chief_h

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 180

Quote:

Originally Posted by nomalice

this is basic missconception. we re calling 60 to win 210 ( pot + bet + our call)

Wow. I am more rusty than I realised. Thx for clearing that up.

Quote

07-19-2018 , 03:42 PM

#20

daviid

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 2,639

Quote:

Originally Posted by nomalice

this is basic missconception. we re calling 60 to win 210 ( pot + bet + our call)

i respect your posts a lot but this is completely wrong. its 60k to win 150k aka 2.5-1.

Quote

07-19-2018 , 03:52 PM

#21

nomalice

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 1,651

Quote:

Originally Posted by daviid

i respect your posts a lot but this is completely wrong. its 60k to win 150k aka 2.5-1.

Funny thing is that I'm winning poker player and I live of poker for last 3 years and I was sure that what I said was right. God bless the donkaments

Quote

07-19-2018 , 04:03 PM

#22

nomalice

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 1,651

Quote:

Originally Posted by daviid

i respect your posts a lot but this is completely wrong. its 60k to win 150k aka 2.5-1.

but again we don't need 40% equity here, as op pointed out ? we need smt around 29 ? If we get 2-1 we need 33% and if we get 3-1 we need 25% ? Is that correct ?

I'm sorry about hijacking thread about this but it's just that I probably count right amount of equity needed to show profit anyway even that I didn't know exact equation

edit: i'm in the middle of the session atm, will look later wtf was wrong with my way of thinking

Quote

07-19-2018 , 04:07 PM

#23

daviid

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 2,639

Quote:

Originally Posted by nomalice

haha no worries mate. well yeah if we get 2-1 on a call we need to win the pot 33% of the time to break even.

Quote

07-19-2018 , 06:16 PM

#24

OMGClayDol

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 11,060

You need 29.1348% to break even cEV wise

The pot won includes your own chips put in..

(Amount to call) / (total pot, if call)
Assuming river

Quote

07-19-2018 , 08:37 PM

#25

jpgiro

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2016 Posts: 1,430

Interesting spot. For me this is mostly about how often we think villain c/r vs. c/c Ahxh on the flop. If they 100% c/r Ahxh combos then it's kinda close, if they c/c sometimes then it's a relatively straightforward call.

*Not sure I'd want to c/r a lot of flush draws as the BB on Qh7x2h as I could start overbluffing, but that's a different issue.

Last edited by jpgiro; 07-19-2018 at 08:43 PM.

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