Let me ask you a question. What % of players in an event like this do you think would do the following with a hand like 66 in this spot?

Call flop and call turn
Call flop and fold turn
Fold flop

Call flop and fold turn - 65%

I don’t know but all I’m saying I actually see guys living by calling once and easily giving up on turn. I see these players a lot I see them do it so much and even show their hand.
I just mean never rule out a barrel here, if you want to 3 barrel atleast you have set it up. You can decide in the hand depending on how weak the players looks imo

There’s no doubt in my mind that some players play the way you’re describing some of the time. But just becuae Villain could fold turn doesn’t mean we should bet turn.

We need to think in terms of what is most likely, and I just think it’s a lot more likely that Villain has Qx/8x and we’re owning ourselves with a bet than it is that we get a fold from a pair at this spot on the hand.

It’s fine that you “don’t know” how often players are doing X vs Y but you have to make a reasonable assumption at some level to put Villain on a range. What you’re describing we should do is more guesswork than good poker driven by solid critical thinking.

I mean, I’m not saying that live reads don’t exist, and if you ever see something in a player where you read weakness, I’m not going to sit here and tell you that you’re wrong. But when OP clearly states he has no reads, I’m going to focus the discussion on what we should do if we don’t have a sense of how weak the player looks.

Yeah with no reads I agree check. All I was trying to say is that when we have reads on players , we can barrel this board against certain players. You said you’d never barrel turn I was just trying to point out reasons why I would barrel in certain spots

raise pre ofc, cbet 1/3 pot to deny equity to worse hands that could improve to beat A-high and to fold out certain fit/fold players that were purely set-mining small pairs and for a little bit of value against stubborn worse Ax and gs hands like JT T9.

don't barrel the turn if called, as it's not a great card for Hero's range and we can improve to beat certain hands on the river if checked through, or simply beat busted V draws that play passively on all streets.

in deep stacked events against rec stations, large multi street bluffs are a bad idea. the recs are WAY more likely to station off in spots like this, because they have three yellow 5K infinity chips and they've read all of oldsilver's hero call threads.

I never said that i would “never barrel turn”. I specifically said that if we have a read go for it, but in lieu of other information, we should check because that’s what makes sense for most players.

Ha yeah that is true, thanks

lol this

i have a new one coming...

Cant wait pop's

"Yellow 5k infinity chips" was damn good.