400/800 Ante 100 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP+2: 14.63 BB
CO: 8.91 BB
BTN: 41.77 BB
Hero (SB): 81.76 BB
BB: 33.78 BB
UTG: 23.23 BB
UTG+1: 6.58 BB
MP: 12.56 BB
MP+1: 25.18 BB

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has J J

fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 25.05 BB and is all-in, fold, fold, BTN raises to 41.64 BB and is all-in, Hero raises to 49.11 BB, fold


Near bubble - I usually lay this down pretty easily here, but was chip leading already and if I win this hand I have more than 2x more chips than the 2nd highest stack, so took the punt. I've won this particular tournament twice and final tabled several times more during lockdown - the point being that I'm not super bothered about losing a chunk of my stack here as I feel I still have a great chance at binking even with my stack halved to 40bb. So all things considered, is this a punt or is the potential to chip up to 140bb+ this late on too good to pass up? V's could be holding Agk, blocking each others outs - some weaker pairs possibly in the mix et al. Their stats weren't by any means aggressive, but I kind of got dazzled by the huge stack potential and finger clicked all-in despite brain thinking fold.

Stupid punt?

On one hand, worst case you still have plenty. That said, I don’t see a huge benefit to having 2x 2nd place at the bubble—especially if we’re already in 1st. You don’t usually see someone openshoving 25bbs with Agk, so I think you’re being optimistic if you’re hoping they both have AK/AQ or one of each.

But again, you’ll still have 40bbs and we’re at the bubble, not a FT so I don’t see it as a huge punt ICM-wise. But I think you know the call was ambitious

A 145ishbb stack would likely cruise me to the FT and way beyond, barring several coolers, as it doesn't take long to get from this stage to the business end in this tournament. Every part of me said fold, except for the small part that didn't want to see something like 88/TT turning over. Opportunities to be absolutely dominant CL going into the money don't come along too often and I just thought I'd take this one. Meh, I think objectively it's always a fold but it's sort of balanced out by my predilections so I think it's like a do whatever you feel like spot. Opener had AK and reshover had KK and I think this is what my instinct suggested - that there was always a dominant hand in there and at the very very best we're flipping though that's highly unlikely. Meh I dunno. Punt

The opener rarely has you dominated.

I was more referring to the re-shove

They both had close to the tops of their ranges. The shover rarely has QQ+ and the reshover can have maybe 10+/AQs+ or something like that. It is a closer spot than implied by results.

The open shove w AK seems really bad to me, surprised to see it.

I’m used to the ACR tournies where the bubble is no where close to the FT, so I guess that’s where my perspective comes from.

If winning this pot would’ve gone so far towards getting you to the FT then I prob change my opinion and think it’s a call.

I assume that he's happy for it to fold around rather than give weaker hands a chance to realise equity and bust otb. Don't like it myself but cashing means more to some people.

It probably averages about 400 runners with a slow/reg structure so it's not like the final table is that soon after the bubble, but it always seems to go fairly quickly from the bubble to final 2 tables for whatever reason

He is afraid of bubbling or playing post flop on the bubble or of having to gii to a 3b, I wouldn't always expect a hand as strong as AK with this play. So I can't see how JJ does badly versus their ranges. I would probably have folded it and kept my stack, but it seems close.

Agreed hence the call - and if we beat BU but lose to MP then we're only losing 10bb so there's a factor to consider. I think results were probably close to worst case scenario, with best case being something like 88-TT and AK/AQ

The best case is the shover has a lower pp and reshover has TT.

Thanks for clarifying

I meant more in terms of most likely case over an infinite number of hands - of course the literal best case is facing two hands that we completely dominate

The worst case is the shover has AQs and reshover has KK or one has AKs and the other QQ, etc.

A second best case, and one that isn't too unlikley, is that they both have A high and share a K or (outside chance with reshover) a Q kicker.

25BB is tighter range and AK possible, but normally I expect 99-KK on a 25BB shove. they're outlier shoves and somewhat predictable.

Reshove V2 range= is stronger than JJ, I'm dumping JJ

If V1 has 13-15BB and V2 reshoves (99+-AQ+), yeah you prob lose your $

Succinct ^^ and exactly in line with my thoughts both in the moment and after. Blinded by greed and paid for it