Following the blogs of the ME. The same person ran AKs into AA and then 15 hands or less later, ran AKo into AA. I did some napkin math of this happening on a 9-handed table and came up with the odds of this happening to the same person twice in 15 hands at roughly 1 in 620,000? Anyone else want to tell me if my number here is wrong?

So sick if that's the case.

Poker is funny that way.

I ran a set of 66 into set of AA vs the same guy in a tourney twice within the same level. It seems there are some days where that one seat just has your number no matter the odds.

Yeah that's probably even less likely, without doing the napkin math, but for the above to happen in the ME with 100 players left, with a top 2% hand, is pretty incredible.

Yeah no doubt and extremely unlucky on one side and extremely lucky for the other.

I've never flopped a set in my life haha.

those types of hands do have a way of popping up on the biggest stage.

I got nitrolled in 2 WPT ME satellites on consecutive days by the same guy w QQ when I had AK...

Does anyone know the winning % of QQ (or any PP) after nitrolling AK?

(99.9% imo with the .1% coming from an accidental muck.)

Your numbers are a bit misleading

Warning, napkin math incoming:

To get AK is 1 in 83 2*4/52*4/51, for someone else at the table to get AA with an A and K gone is 3/50*2/49*8 (this is not quite right, but close enough) or 1 in 51. So if you start the next hand, the chance of you getting dealt AK and someone else getting dealt AA is about 1 in 4200, and two hands in a row is ~1 in 17.6 million. Not entirely sure how to go about 2+ in 15 hands but your 1:620k figure seems close enough.

But of course the chance of getting coolered is much much higher, because you're playing many more hands in a day so the chance that you get dealt AK over the course of a day is very high and the actual calculation starts after that, so you can divide the number by something like 50 (guesstimate). Then, you would've probably had the same reaction if the cooler was KK vs AA, AK vs KK, AA vs KK with a king coming twice, AK vs AA and then QQ vs AA next orbit, set over set twice, etc etc. In much the same way, for this to happen to you specifically in the next 15 hands is much much more unlikely than for it to happen to one of the 18 players over a full day of play. So every individual scenario is very improbable, but given a big enough sample and enough very improbable scenarios, 1 in a million or even a billion happens all the time.

LOL. It's unlikely, but not THAT unlikely. I'm assuming this is the question:

Given a player got AK and ran into AA at a 9 man table, what is the probability he wil have that happen again within the next 15 hands. (I ignored suits).

Pr(AK for hero and AA heads up) = 16/1326 *3/1225 = 0.000030
Pr(No (AK_h v s AA heads up) = 1- 0.000030= 0.999970
Pr (No ((AK_h vs AA) 8 players)= 0.999970^8 =0.999764
Pr (No (AK_h vs AA, 8 players) in 15 games) = 0.999764^15 = 0.996460
Pr( Yes -Happens at least once in 15 games)= 1- 0.996460 = 0.003540

Odds against 282 to 1

These calcs can be tricky and I could have made a mistake, but 620,000 to 1 No Way!

With tens (hundreds?) of thousands of hands played every day, I'm sure it happens quite a lot

NOTE: I assumed an AK vs AA hand happened, otw the question would not have even come up. Thus, I calculate the probability it happens again in the next 15 hands.

???

Soep already confirmed that one person getting Aks and AKo vs AA twice in 15 or less hands at 620,000:1 is pretty close to accurate (I used rough calculations).

I have absolutely no idea what kind of math you're doing here, but 282 to 1 is less than the odds of 1 person being dealt AKs in a hand much less anything I've discussed here happening, I have absolutely no idea what kind of math you're doing here but maybe you want to re-read the original question (or work on your formulas).

Soep, yes, there's some other other QQ+/AKo/AKs coolers you could work into this equation that would significantly increase your odds of being coolered in this fashion that's nowhere near 620,000:1, but even including those (QQ vs KK, QQ vs AA, KK vs AA, I won't include AKo/AKs vs KK because it still has decent equity) it would be pretty staggering for this to happen twice in a 30 minute time period with 100 people left in the most acclaimed annual poker tournament in the world. That he also had a healthy stack before the first cooler makes it even worse.

I just get interested by weird numbers. A few months ago I got dealt the same exact hand (same suits and all) three times in four hands which is pretty insane, too. About 1 in 800,000 roughly is what I calculated at the time. I agree with you, though, if you started taking a tally of all the weird numbers that can happen in poker (the one described above, this one I just mentioned, the chance of getting runner-runner case cards to win a pot, the odds of two people shoving the same hand, etc) then yes, rare things happen often enough for them not to be surprising anymore.

But in this case, man, the stage it happened on and how fast it occurred. Brutal.

I noted (twice) that the question I answered is the probability of AA vs AK in the next fifteen hands, given it just happened to hero who had the AK. The math I used is standard probability calculations.

If you want the question to be – What is the probability hero gets AK and runs into AA the next hand and then does so again within the next 15 hands, that is a different question ,although not very interesting or meaningful, IMO. I assume this is what you addressed.

So you decided to come up with an answer to a question nobody asked and then also managed to call the original question not interesting or meaningful. Got it.

It might have been easier for you to just read the original post and moved on with your life?

My OP was in no way unclear of what I was stating the probability of.

No you're missing his point, and it's the same point I made. Yes, if you sit down right now and play 15 hands of 9handed poker, those are the odds, but that's not a practical way to think about it. The proper way to think about it is many times someone will get some kind of cooler at some point during a day of play, and then the probability that this same thing repeats in the next 15 hands is 1:282 (for this specific event). So the chances of someone at some point getting rekt in the same or a similar fashion in short succession is quite high.

Think about it in a simplified way: if you flip a coin right now it'll have a 1/64 chance of landing on heads 6 times, but if you're flipping coins all day you won't be shocked that it lands on heads or tails or HTHTHT or whatever pattern you can come up with 6 times in a row at some point. Or getting dealt AA twice in a row is about 1 in 48000, but when you're dealt AA the chance of getting dealt AA next hand (and thus AA twice in a row) is the same as getting dealt AA once: 1 in 220.

Not missing the point at all. Yes, I'm aware that once a rare event occurs, that the chance of the rare event occurring again is the same chance as it having occurred the first time. I specifically stated in my OP I was referring exactly to a rare event occurring TWICE in 15 hands. I don't understand what makes you or him think I'm missing a point here.

I'm also aware that if you flip a coin 15 times and it lands on heads 14 times, that it's still 50/50 to be heads or tails on flip number 15.

I've said nothing in any of the posts here to signify that I've somehow missed his point or yours.

The odds of KK running into AA twice in 15 hands is even worse than the 1 in 620,000 I mentioned in the OP, and had Chris DaSilva had that happen to him it would be a pretty brutal turn of events as well. Had he shoved 99 into TT twice in 15 hands, even though the odds are identical to KK shoving into AA twice in 15 hands, I wouldn't have found it interesting at all. Same rarity but different context.

So yeah, I think you might be missing the point, not the other way around. If I saw this occur in a random $150 daily event at my local brick and mortar I wouldn't have posted it here.

Not all coolers are created equal, though, whether in scope of the stakes involved or the relative strength of the hand. This was one that stuck out to me as being particularly gross with it involving the very top of someone's range and occurring twice in such short succession.

This sentence does not describe the event in question. With 18 players all playing >100 hands and many different coolers possible the odds are much much higher than 1:620000 for an event such as this happening at some point during the day. At some point someone will inevitably get some kind of gross cooler, and then the odds of the same thing repeating within 15 hands are the same as it happening once. Or, more technically speaking, the cummulative chance of one of the players getting unlucky twice in short succession in some way in a long day of poker is far greater than specifically this stretch of 15 hands.

Last attempt to get the concept across: you're very unlikely to be struck by lightning, you're massively unlikely to be struck by lightning twice. But with lightning striking the earth a few times per second, each day some people will be struck. Eventually somebody will be struck by lightning twice. If you hear a story about that guy you might think "how does that happen?" but given enough time it is inevitable that it happens to someone. If you look whether one specific person will be struck twice in their lifetime before they get struck once and it happens, THAT is the unlikely event.

That's my point, though. DaSilva feels like complete **** today because he got struck by lightning twice (sensationalizing the rarity here, obviously, as a range-topping cooler isn't comparable to a lightning strike) in 15 hands in the ME with 100 players left. Telling him this happens once a day because hundreds of thousands of hands occur daily worldwide isn't going to make him sleep any better. When you weigh the context of it occurring when and where it did, it's a pretty tough swallow. If this occurred on Day 1 or Day 2, or in a different event, I wouldn't have given it much thought at all besides a passing "Ouch, that sucks."

Honestly, we're just arguing semantics at this point.

it probably would have been easier for all of us if we had just moved on with our lives prior to reading your original post

btw hawkesdave...Im very intriqued by this new term "range-topping cooler"....just to clarify...does this refer to when you run into the top of your opponent's range when you yourself have a strong hand, thus getting coolered?
Or does it refer to the new Coleman "home on the range" stove top set with automatic cool-down features?

You obviously don’t know your coolers. Yeti are the best, and it’s not even close. Would never use a Coleman.

I think AA-KK-KK is a way bigger cooler (if you hold a K) for a ME Final Table seat.

1 in 70,000 chance of AA vs KK vs KK happening in a given hand of 10-handed play, if my math is correct. Considering the stakes in play (payjump to $1,000,000 and the final table berth of the 2nd largest ME field in history), an even more incredible situation, yes. A legendary final hand of the day.

Honestly, don’t care what the napkins math is. I’ve seen the craziest beats live in less than 1000 hours of live play. Prob less than 500 hours. Already had AA vs AA all in pre 3x. I’ve seen quads over boats, boats over boats, straight flush over quads. Nonstop, it’s not a normal day at the tables If you don’t see this **** at least one time a day IMO.

Poker odds in a vacuum are dumb. No one will prob ever reach the long run. The AA vs KK vs KK hand looked completely normal to me. Another day in the life.

Well, let me know when you played a MTT fopr 6+ DAYS and then had this decision. GTFO if you think this is "normal".

In a live tourney once I cold 4-bet JJ 60bbs deep, with the intention of folding if the original raiser 5-bet but getting it in vs the 3-bettor.

The original raiser 5-bet shoved, I put him on QQ+ and didn't even think he could have AK. The 3-better took 2 minutes to tank-fold what he told us later was 99. When he folded, I was about to muck when the original raiser turned AhKh face-up, having not noticed me at all (he thought he was 4-bet shipping vs the 3-better, not 5-bet shipping on a cold 4-bet).

I obviously have to now call, but honestly I think his hand is about 90% in that spot.