Quote:
Originally Posted by statmanhal
LOL. It's unlikely, but not THAT unlikely. I'm assuming this is the question:
Given a player got AK and ran into AA at a 9 man table, what is the probability he wil have that happen again within the next 15 hands. (I ignored suits).
Pr(AK for hero and AA heads up) = 16/1326 *3/1225 = 0.000030
Pr(No (AK_h v s AA heads up) = 1- 0.000030= 0.999970
Pr (No ((AK_h vs AA) 8 players)= 0.999970^8 =0.999764
Pr (No (AK_h vs AA, 8 players) in 15 games) = 0.999764^15 = 0.996460
Pr( Yes -Happens at least once in 15 games)= 1- 0.996460 = 0.003540
Odds against 282 to 1
These calcs can be tricky and I could have made a mistake, but 620,000 to 1 No Way!
With tens (hundreds?) of thousands of hands played every day, I'm sure it happens quite a lot
NOTE: I assumed an AK vs AA hand happened, otw the question would not have even come up. Thus, I calculate the probability it happens again in the next 15 hands.
???
Soep already confirmed that one person getting Aks and AKo vs AA twice in 15 or less hands at 620,000:1 is pretty close to accurate (I used rough calculations).
I have absolutely no idea what kind of math you're doing here, but 282 to 1 is less than the odds of 1 person being dealt AKs in a hand much less anything I've discussed here happening, I have absolutely no idea what kind of math you're doing here but maybe you want to re-read the original question (or work on your formulas).
Soep, yes, there's some other other QQ+/AKo/AKs coolers you could work into this equation that would significantly increase your odds of being coolered in this fashion that's nowhere near 620,000:1, but even including those (QQ vs KK, QQ vs AA, KK vs AA, I won't include AKo/AKs vs KK because it still has decent equity) it would be pretty staggering for this to happen twice in a 30 minute time period with 100 people left in the most acclaimed annual poker tournament in the world. That he also had a healthy stack before the first cooler makes it even worse.
I just get interested by weird numbers. A few months ago I got dealt the same exact hand (same suits and all) three times in four hands which is pretty insane, too. About 1 in 800,000 roughly is what I calculated at the time. I agree with you, though, if you started taking a tally of all the weird numbers that can happen in poker (the one described above, this one I just mentioned, the chance of getting runner-runner case cards to win a pot, the odds of two people shoving the same hand, etc) then yes, rare things happen often enough for them not to be surprising anymore.
But in this case, man, the stage it happened on and how fast it occurred. Brutal.
Last edited by HawkesDave; 07-11-2018 at 12:32 PM.