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Mid-High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of mid-high stakes MTT strategy

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Old 05-30-2021, 04:34 AM   #26
oldsilver
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Re: Can't break the pattern

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Originally Posted by EggsMcBluffin View Post
Its such a shame that stoicism and minimalism are considered strange philosophies. Its actually kind of sick and sad
Yep. This is smart.

Happiness comes from an improvement in life relative to our recent past.

Sadness comes the other way.

It really doesn’t matter a damn what the starting point is.
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Old 05-30-2021, 04:39 AM   #27
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Re: Can't break the pattern

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Cats are for losers, I like dogs and birds.
Nope. This is dumb.

You’re welcome to that slobbering wet stinking ass-kissing dog.

Cats are the greatest conceivable pet.
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Old 05-30-2021, 07:40 AM   #28
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Re: Can't break the pattern

I don't have a dog and I haven't had one for many, many years.

I do have a parrot and I promise you my parrot is 1,000,000x smarter than any dog OR cat around.

My bird can use at least a dozen words in context ("Hello", "Sleep", "Bath", et al.) and is trained to **** in like three different spots in the house.

Parrots don't smell, don't really make much mess at all--they're remarkably clean animals--they zoom around in flight like a jet, and they are SMART.

If you can handle their noise, parrots are the greatest pets around.

Parrots are flock animals and thrive on attention and affection--they genuinely love their owners.

Cats? They're opportunistic leeches who use their cuteness to their advantage. They don't care about their owners one bit.

Last edited by EggsMcBluffin; 05-30-2021 at 07:59 AM.
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Old 05-31-2021, 01:35 AM   #29
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Re: Can't break the pattern

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Originally Posted by Bubblebust View Post
With a full time job, I am only able to play 3-4 tournaments per week; and have settled mostly into ACR medium/large field tournaments ranging from $50 to $200. When I started on ACR, I final tabled 3 tournaments in my first several months (finished first in 1) -- I definitley know this was not sustainable, and was just small sample/variance in my favor.

But now, I'm stuck in a rut where I am either busting near the bubble or min-cashing -- no top 18 finishes for a long while. The real frustrating thing, however, is the pattern I keep getting into: I almost always get into a top position in the early toinament (surpsisingly without taking crazy risks -- just exploiting the weak players and building a stack when I have the goods). Then either mid or mid-late tournament I slowly, but surely, fall back to the middle of the pack. Even when I double up at this point, I still end up falling back to the pack. Eventually, I lose a race and take my small cash/close call. I've noticed this pattern and conciously tried to not get too tight as the SPRs go down/increasing my reshove range, but it hasn't helped.

Given my limited play, there's an argument this pattern, too, is variance. But the pattern is too recurrent, so I'm wondering if anyone has ever suffered a similar pattern and has suggestions, or could otherwise offer a way out.
I'd like to add few things with the goal to help you improve your game and mindset.

First check out this tool:

https://www.primedope.com/tournament...ce-calculator/

Here you can have a much better understanding of the kind of investment you are putting your money in, you can play with the variables and be much more realistic about your expectations.

Then I'd like to politely tell you that in reality you have little to no chance of winning on the long run on these fields without putting a lot of time studying and playing, PROS which grind this field have already a pretty decent understanding of theory and often are part of a team (brazilians, russians, europeans, etc) which develop strategies based on population tendencies hence will have a blueprint strategies that exploit population and simplify their game increasing volume and ROI.

So, let's you'd like to put some effort in getting better. Honestly I'd tell you to hire someone to storm review your last 100k hands and do the dirty job of finding your biggest leaks and make a study plan for you with RUN IT ONCE videos, softwares, simulations, you name it then whenever you have a time between your duties you could be improving.

Warning is that the passion that you have for the game might go away.

Hopefully you don't get this wrong, best regards.
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Old 05-31-2021, 03:52 AM   #30
oldsilver
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Re: Can't break the pattern

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Originally Posted by GronKiller View Post
I'd like to add few things with the goal to help you improve your game and mindset.

First check out this tool:

https://www.primedope.com/tournament...ce-calculator/

.
It’s a brilliant tool. If you think 45% ROI is invincible over 1000 mtts, think again
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Old 05-31-2021, 08:03 AM   #31
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Re: Can't break the pattern

Quote:
Originally Posted by GronKiller View Post
I'd like to add few things with the goal to help you improve your game and mindset.

First check out this tool:

https://www.primedope.com/tournament...ce-calculator/

Here you can have a much better understanding of the kind of investment you are putting your money in, you can play with the variables and be much more realistic about your expectations.

Then I'd like to politely tell you that in reality you have little to no chance of winning on the long run on these fields without putting a lot of time studying and playing, PROS which grind this field have already a pretty decent understanding of theory and often are part of a team (brazilians, russians, europeans, etc) which develop strategies based on population tendencies hence will have a blueprint strategies that exploit population and simplify their game increasing volume and ROI.

So, let's you'd like to put some effort in getting better. Honestly I'd tell you to hire someone to storm review your last 100k hands and do the dirty job of finding your biggest leaks and make a study plan for you with RUN IT ONCE videos, softwares, simulations, you name it then whenever you have a time between your duties you could be improving.

Warning is that the passion that you have for the game might go away.

Hopefully you don't get this wrong, best regards.

Finally, someone who understands the way things work these days.

People around here will look at you like you have three heads though when you insinuate you need to put in 1000s of hrs of dedicated work to become truly great.

They will reflexively recoil and the insinuation because I think deep down they know it's true but can't or simply won't adjust their habits and put the work in.

But it's true and I will never be persuaded to think otherwise.

One thing I do not like about the tool though is the axes on the graphs are not labeled which makes me crazy---y-axis on the 2nd graph is profit, can't figure out what it represents on the first graph. And x-axis on the first graph is profit?

Last edited by EggsMcBluffin; 05-31-2021 at 08:21 AM.
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Old 05-31-2021, 08:06 AM   #32
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Re: Can't break the pattern

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It’s a brilliant tool. If you think 45% ROI is invincible over 1000 mtts, think again
It's true.

Of course it depends on field size but let's say you're playing these huge Sunday events where, by the way, I am 100% convinced a 40% ROI is still very much achievable by someone who's truly great (actually I think a much higher ROI is still achievable even in 2021)---but 1k sample size with average field size of 1k entrants that 40% ROI sicko is still losing 10% of the time.

If we're talking Sunday majors only that's like a 10% likelihood that they'll experience something like 5yrs of losing Sundays--for a player who would easily be in the top 99.5th percentile perhaps much higher than that.

Its a sobering thought, isnt it?

Another interesting result is the risk of ruin calculation--such a sicko needs a roll of 300 abi to comfortably never encounter going totally broke. This means in huge field events, normal people should have at least 500 ABIs in their roll to be safe.

Last edited by EggsMcBluffin; 05-31-2021 at 09:32 AM.
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Old 05-31-2021, 09:27 AM   #33
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Re: Can't break the pattern

It also speaks directly that what I said earlier ITT about the only valid way to gauge a player's skill level, which has nothing to do with their results (unless we're talking like a 5-figure game count sample) and everything to do with talking to that person, listening to their ideas, and most importantly offering sample problems in a no-variance setting. Only in such a controlled, no-variance setting can you begin to get an idea of how good someone is--based on the correctness of their responses, and based on that person's command of the principles necessarily needed to arrive at those responses.
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Old 06-02-2021, 02:25 PM   #34
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Re: Can't break the pattern

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It also speaks directly that what I said earlier ITT about the only valid way to gauge a player's skill level, which has nothing to do with their results (unless we're talking like a 5-figure game count sample) and everything to do with talking to that person, listening to their ideas, and most importantly offering sample problems in a no-variance setting. Only in such a controlled, no-variance setting can you begin to get an idea of how good someone is--based on the correctness of their responses, and based on that person's command of the principles necessarily needed to arrive at those responses.
Even then...I am sure there are players who can 'talk a good game' but not be able to execute it over the table. I know this is true from high level bridge, I'd bet it is even more true at high level poker.

The contrary, however, is almost certainly true, especially on line.
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Old 07-29-2021, 11:36 AM   #35
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Re: Can't break the pattern

Had to bump this, as I broke the pattern in a big way. Finished first in $80 $50,000 guarantee on ACR -- scored a little over $9k.

Thanks everyone for your help. I think studying GTO helped some, but what really helped was me not playing like a GTO robot ... I was always evaluating hands in the context of the players invovled and the situation and current dynamics.
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Old 07-29-2021, 04:33 PM   #36
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Re: Can't break the pattern

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Originally Posted by Bubblebust View Post
Had to bump this, as I broke the pattern in a big way. Finished first in $80 $50,000 guarantee on ACR -- scored a little over $9k.

Thanks everyone for your help. I think studying GTO helped some, but what really helped was me not playing like a GTO robot ... I was always evaluating hands in the context of the players invovled and the situation and current dynamics.


You said a few things i'd like to chime in....

" i keep finding myself early having a huge stack in busting later"
How do you think you get to later spots in tourneys? the highest odds is you had a big stack not a small stack to even get to the middle spot.
"i keep losing near bubble/itm"
typically once your itm you got to win 2 flips every hour... go flip a coin 4 times and if its heads any of those times your busted before final 50. flip it 2 more times for top 20.


realize even if you study the maximum look at guys like fedor who won like 20m in 6 weeks[paraphrasing]... he won ak vs tt for millions[not paraphrasing] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZyGfk2HDaY .... this one call is worth 10% of his total earnings lifetime... think about that. one spot.one call is 10% of your lifetime. the only thing you can do is study. posting stuff like this will get you nowhere imo.


PS:congrats on 9k
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Old 07-29-2021, 07:05 PM   #37
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Re: Can't break the pattern

Congrats!
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Old 07-29-2021, 08:19 PM   #38
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Re: Can't break the pattern

Thanks Rick and beez.
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Old 07-29-2021, 08:48 PM   #39
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Re: Can't break the pattern

Well done. One for the good guys.
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Old 07-29-2021, 10:46 PM   #40
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Re: Can't break the pattern

Thanks 3for3
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Old 08-04-2021, 05:57 PM   #41
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Re: Can't break the pattern

I think you answered your own question in the OP, it’s most likely variance and pattern searching. With the volume you play, you cant make any general assumptions about your game that would explain the pattern you recognize (that may or may not exist).
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