Hi again forum

Live tourney:

Blinds 400 / 800 BB ante 800
Hero: +/- 37k in chips (46BB)
Villain: +/- 120k in chips (150BB)

Hero: 10cQs

Villain raises from HJ *2.1BB*, Button calls, Hero completes from BB
Pot: 7.5k (*9.3BB*)

Flop: 3c 9d Qc

Villain raises 2.4k (3BB), Button calls, Hero calls
Pot: 14.7k (*18.3BB*)

Turn: 3c 8d Qc 7s

Villain goes all in, Button folds, Hero ??

Can we ever ever consider hero calling here? our remaining stack is 38BB, +/- 30k.

Villain is young, went pro 3 years ago. Has shown himself to be a bit of a LAG during the tourney. We have only been playing in the same table for 2 hours though, so not that much info outside of that.

It's a bad play by Button, but that doesn't mean we can call. Maybe he has Ac8c or Ac7c but he also could just be owning you with AQ.

You need a solid read to make a call like this. I don't think you have one.

I would def fold if villain is goot enuf to change one of the board cards (from the 9d into the 8d)...

If he was cbetting 87hh he just made 2pr...

Haha oops. It's a 9, not a 8. In both

Obviously he can have a ton of bluffs here, with his big bully stack he wants to steamroll the table and you are the one standing in the way. So you will be ahead here a larger than usual percentage of times. If he is the LAG you describe he will be opening very wide and he will probably c-bet 100% of flops, so you can't read much into that.

In his position I would overbet like that for any number of reasons. For instance if I had a hand that felt vulnerable, like KQ, QJ, Q10. I might do it with air. And I might sometimes do it with a big hand like 99, 33, or 77, in hopes that you would call it off with a Q or a draw.

Bottom line, your hand is pretty weak. You are only beating a bluff. I'm sure the PIO-solver guys will tell you that since Villains range is 23ss-AK, 22+ you should call. But right now you can bail with little harm done. Anyway if you do call, he will probably have J-10 and spike the nine, because he is a young pro and you are not, so he runs better than you do anyway. Fold.

lol missed that. in that case he'll have K-J and spike the 10.

Hey...really don't wanna be that guy (who is preoccupied with minor details) but...kinda need BTN's stack here, since it really affects HJ's shoving range ott.

Also (prob another typo) but hard to open to 2.1x live here unless the casino has chips in play in denominations of < 100 at this stage. If the open was to 2.5x then the pot is almost correct, or close enuf . Oh and going forward, I wouldn't include the bet or pot sizes in BBs, kinda confusing and cluttering imo.

This is a weird spot, when it comes to determining what frequency that we need to defend vs the turn 2.2x (effective) overbet shove. If we were HU with HJ then we would have to call ~31% of our range in order to prevent non-equity bluffs from profiting.

With BTN still in the hand (and yet to act when HJ shoves,) we are not solely responsible to defend 31%, since any combination of calls (from our collective ranges) that is equal to, or greater than 31% will prevent non- equity bluffs from profiting. In reality, when HJ uses this sizing, he should almost never have non-equity bluffs, since a (properly constructed) polarized range includes high-equity semi-bluffs and some very strong hands.

We could argue that BTN bears a greater responsibility to defend the turn shove, since he has a stronger range preflop. That said, we can't just fold everything but 77 when BTN folds. Another thing that makes this spot interesting is we should have a pretty aggressive c/r freq otf vs the 33% CBet sizing. I think I would c/r ~15% freq (see images below.)

Anyways, here are my ranges and actions on each street.

Preflop:


Flop:

Key: Green=Calls; Blue=Folds; Orange=Value Raises; Yellow=Bruff Raises.

Turn:


So only defending ~21% of range ott to the 2.2x overshove. Again, if we were HU, we would have to defend down to some 9x and 7x hands to reach Minimum Defense.

I'm folding QxTc and QxTd since the Tc and Td are 2 of the worst blockers (since they block so many of villain's high equity semi-bluff combos.) Also folding Q8dd and Q6dd since the 8 and 6 of diamonds are bad blockers as well. Aside from the one set (77) and the obv 2pr calls, I have a couple NFDs and some Pr+FD hands and some Top Pair.

Yeah your logic and calculations are in line with what I was thinking..

Sorry about the poor quality post. Wrote from the phone out of memory and made some mistakes on the post. 2.5x was indeed the bet (although we did still have 25v chips), and thanks for the advice on better posting in the future. Just getting started here : )

BTN stack is indeed important and was approximately around the 30k mark.

I ended up folding mainly because of holding the 10c specifically...