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Mid-High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of mid-high stakes MTT strategy

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Old 10-07-2018, 10:24 AM   #1
josofo
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call it off with 8s?

under the gun have 8s raise to 4100 the blinds are 800-1600 with a bb anti of 1600.

its like 7-8 handed or so

like 6th position flats and the guy next to him snaps all in for like 35,000 we have like 47,000 to start the hand.


i have played with him the entire day he has played rather tight despite getting chips early and our table being incredible tight (making 1 bluff with ace high flush draw and getting there). an he ran into a couple coolers to loose chips.

so it kind of felt like a fold.
I guess i could of considered that he snapped it in meaning maybe with aces of kings he would think about 3 betting, so a snap it in means ak, aq or jacks or worse.

instinct wise 10s i would of called and 9s i would of really tanked. but 8s felt like a fold.

so am i wrong is 8s a call here?

i am being a bit results oriented here, because a few hands later i went all in over a raise with 7s (probably a bit of bad play) and got called by kings and went home. but this spot the guy had ak off and i would of been flipping.

Last edited by josofo; 10-07-2018 at 10:35 AM.
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Old 10-07-2018, 02:13 PM   #2
RiverDood
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Re: call it off with 8s?

Your fold of 88 is fine. You're way behind part of Villain's range and flipping for the rest. You have time to wait for better.

Any time you bust out in a tournament, there will always be a couple hands that you could have played differently on the road to ruin. You'll improve faster if you look for ways to extract more value on hands you won, rather than agonizing about big flips taken or avoided.
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Old 10-11-2018, 12:30 PM   #3
PhatPots
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Re: call it off with 8s?

It's a close spot IMO, given the villain that you described. I would call 10s here. I can see an argument for either side. But the thing is that sometimes even tight players will show up with smaller PPs.
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Old 10-11-2018, 12:40 PM   #4
UnbanMePlz
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Re: call it off with 8s?

This is such a clear spot for you to run a sim, instead of being lazy and asking other lazy posters who don't run the sims either.

The answer is call.
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Old 10-11-2018, 02:48 PM   #5
nonsimplesimon
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Re: call it off with 8s?

Was thinking not folding. But do we call or shove to isolate?
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Old 10-11-2018, 02:51 PM   #6
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Re: call it off with 8s?

Also in villain's position AJ ATs 66 is likely a shoving range or is that to wide?
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Old 10-11-2018, 07:40 PM   #7
jjpregler
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Re: call it off with 8s?

The first way I analyze hands at home is to determine what my MDF would be. If this hand is in your MDF and this villain has a balance in his range, you cannot fold.

When he bets the pot has 12.2k and he bets 35k. We have to call with the top 26% of our range. 88 falls at about the top 6% of all hands. So unless you are opening over 20% of hands from EP, which most people are not, this hand is not in your MDF. I think I average about 10% from here, give or take some depending on player tendencies and game flow.

Next we have to examine pot odds and see how wide he has to be for us to call off and then determine if it is likely that this player is that wide or wider.

We have to call 30.9 to win 47.2. Our break even equity is 40%. Setting an edge for myself in MTTs, I would call off if I am getting 45% equity.

The loosest I may expect this player to ever be is 7% value with balance. Against that range 88 has 49%

If we cut the bluff range back to 50% balance 88 has 47%.

Top 7% with minimal bluff range: 43%

5% range with balance: 88 has 45% equity

5% range cutting the bluff range back: 88 only has 42% equity.

Top 5% with minimal bluff range: only 37% equity

As you can see, of all 6 of these runs, the only one that would be horrible is the 5% minimal bluff range. Even the 7% minimal range and 5% 50% bluff range while not meeting the "edge" requirements I set, would still probably be reasonable to call, but borderline call/fold spots.

This really comes down to a read from OP. this is a tight player, but there are ranges of tight players. From nits who only bet when they are ahead to the solid TAG who have a bluff range as well. But overall, I think is looking like it is leaning towards a call.
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Old 10-12-2018, 12:57 AM   #8
lolposting2016
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Re: call it off with 8s?

Quote:
Originally Posted by UnbanMePlz View Post
This is such a clear spot for you to run a sim, instead of being lazy and asking other lazy posters who don't run the sims either.

The answer is call.
Thanks for posting what I was going to post. The issue isnít as much about the posters being lazy, itís also that you will get a lot of bad/very bad advice in these forums when there is software which will get you the right answe with just a tiny bit of effort
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Old 10-12-2018, 05:58 AM   #9
jjpregler
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Re: call it off with 8s?

Quote:
Originally Posted by lolposting2016 View Post
Thanks for posting what I was going to post. The issue isnít as much about the posters being lazy, itís also that you will get a lot of bad/very bad advice in these forums when there is software which will get you the right answe with just a tiny bit of effort
The problem is that simulations run on the way players are supposed to play, but not really the way they do play.
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Old 10-12-2018, 10:48 AM   #10
swissodds
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Re: call it off with 8s?

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Originally Posted by jjpregler View Post
The problem is that simulations run on the way players are supposed to play, but not really the way they do play.
True but our goal is to make the correct choice, isn't it?

Anyway, putting gto appart and knowing that this was live, seems like a pretty trivial decision to me without having to run any Sim.
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Old 10-13-2018, 12:40 PM   #11
UnbanMePlz
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Re: call it off with 8s?

Well if you ran the sim you would know it’s not trivial or that close. Nor does it really matter we are playing live in this exact spot.
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Old 10-14-2018, 03:33 AM   #12
josofo
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Re: call it off with 8s?

Quote:
Originally Posted by UnbanMePlz View Post
Well if you ran the sim you would know itís not trivial or that close. Nor does it really matter we are playing live in this exact spot.
is equilabs considered a sim?

i just don't think he is shoving with enough hands hear even if we give me my read that he would think what to do with aces and kings and not insta shove.

so yeah after seeing what equilabs thinks i like my fold more.


i just don't think he is like insta shoving ace-5 suited like ever here and even if he does shove one suited low ace i am still pretty far behind his range.
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Old 10-14-2018, 07:43 AM   #13
jjpregler
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Re: call it off with 8s?

Quote:
Originally Posted by josofo View Post
is equilabs considered a sim?

i just don't think he is shoving with enough hands hear even if we give me my read that he would think what to do with aces and kings and not insta shove.

so yeah after seeing what equilabs thinks i like my fold more.


i just don't think he is like insta shoving ace-5 suited like ever here and even if he does shove one suited low ace i am still pretty far behind his range.
No, I'm pretty sure that they are talking about sims like ICMizer or Cardrunners EV that run simulations based on Nash Equilibrium.
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