77 UTG raise to 3x
UTG+2 call everyone else folds

7.5 bb pot
flop 5c 4c 3s

I thought he would be holding a bunch of overs not considering any Ax is gonna float with a gutshot+ more than likely 2 overs. I cbet 5bb expecting folds that I'm not gonna get from Ax. V jams with A9c; I call my remaining 15bb with my overpair without thinking twice. get out drawn, because although in the moment I thought I was ahead I was actually a ~45% dog.

arguments for jamming 23 bb with 77s utg. maybe gets folds from middling suited Ax. given the situation at the table I would've folded to a 3 bet, does this strengthen the fact I should've jammed knowing I'm probably only getting called by big Ax and overpairs?

You played it fine. I could see some arguments for folding pre though. I’m not a fan of shoving 20bb in tournaments unless we’re in SB or BTN.

Smaller pre, smaller post, given the way you played it thus far call it off.

3x pre seems excessive. I coulb be convinced to fold pre but that just seems too tight IMO. I think we can open ~12-15% here, and 77 falls squarely in that range. Think 55 would be the bottom of my opening range.

Pot the flop. We're almost always ahead and need as much protection as we can buy on this texture in particular, which also has wheel draws possible.

AP never folding. Even if we're fading 18 outs we still have a call worth over 6bb in EV.

Fold pre. As played, smaller cbet. We’re behind every other pocket pair bar 66 and 22. I think a set probably calls so I would probably put V on an overpair and fold the shove. If he does have a flush draw then he likely has 2 overs, giving him plenty of outs. I think it’s close but fold to be safe

I mean, as played we have to call this off

3bb+3bb+1bb+.5bb+5bb+5bb+15bb = 32.5bb:15bbcall, we need 31.57% equity and like the combination of nittiest but also worst case scenario combination of hands is:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

326,700 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 543

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
77	33.08%	102,303	11,547
66-AA,Ac9c,AcTc,AcJc,AcQc,AcKc,KcQc	66.92%	212,850	11,547

33% equity, but like I said earlier smaller pre, smaller post

shoving pre beats folding by a lot, so openfolding is completely out of the question. also the way stacks are set up we obv wont b/f an overpair ever in that spot.

id probably take the low variance route and open rip this pre.

Limp jam or fold pre
As played overbet shove flop

i'd just open fold, shoving won't be +cev.

Raise smaller pre. This hand is fine to open with at these stacks, probably should be open folding 22-55, 66 is right on the edge. We shouldn't be open ripping 23BB very often unless we're in really tough lineups where we think we'll be outplayed post.

As played I think if I'm betting, I'm betting the flop small as I would with my entire range, as this flop shouldn't hit this villain very often at all. I don't think we deny equity effectively in this spot unless we're willing to commit ourselves anyway, and if we're jamming 77 what does the rest our jam range look like? Obviously calling as played, but if we bet small we give ourselves room to let go of our worst overpairs and Ax w/o additional equity if villain gets frisky.

you played it fine. I think it can be smaller pre flop and smaller post flop. But overall it's fine the way you played it. Just open folding this is too tight preflop. Also just ripping 23 BB from UTG feels spewy.

A few thoughts on the math of shoving 77 UTG pre w/ 23BB.

The assumption is people will only call you with Top 6% of hands: 88+, AJo+, AQs+. Some people will be tighter, some will be looser, but this looks like a reasonable average.

With 8 people behind you that means a 40% chance of getting a call.
And when you get called, you are a 30-70 underdog to that range.

So:
60% of the time you increase you stack by 10% (+2.5BB for your 23BB stack).
40% of the time you decrease you stack by 40% (because you win 30% of a pot where you've contributed with 50%).

You can easily see that this is very -EV chipwise, and ICM will only make it worse.

fwiw you don't really need to do any math, 30 seconds in icmizer shows shoving would be -Cev.

Well, first of all, I would like to have more information, how many players? What antes? ICM considerations? Are we in the money?

Second, don't raise 3x with 23bb deep. Why are you risking so much to win a few big blinds? Shoving makes no sense, because first of all, it's not profitable shove. Min-raise with 9-30bb deep, maybe open 2,2x w 30-60bb sack and then over 60bb deep open 2,5x for example. You want to steal more pots when shorter, so you want to open more hands, which means you want to open smaller, so you don't risk too much per steal.



Nash ranges for shoving UTG 23bb w 77.

There should be no antes, we can work that out from the 7.5 bb pot.