Quote:
Originally Posted by LektorAJ
Well in the commentary villain says he doesn't always call with a 4 but it strikes me then that he must be exploitably overfolding at some point during the hand.
Obviously he is dealt ATC and all he has done up to the river is call a 2.5x open from the CO in the BB (with antes) getting 4.17 to 1, and to call a 40% c-bet ("min defence frequency" 78%) and now he is facing a 31% bet on the river (min defence frequency 83%).
I'm aware of the theoretical problems with min defence frequencies but the above is a good illustration. Perhaps he is defending a lot more by bluff raising so his range is stronger than I estimated but at least in game I was expecting to get hero-called by stuff like A high.
I think I might need to get a solver ......
This is exactly why I defended the steal with Q5s. With position and initiative, the blinds have a hell of a time making this unprofitable.
But anyway, from the BB perspective, he is supposed to call with MDF when your range is balanced on the river. If he has reads you are unbalanced, he should not be calling with MDF, but should adjust that number based on your range.
Now flipping that, he needs to call 76% when your bluffing range is balanced, ie, your bluffing range is 76% as well.
However, your are not supposed to call with MDF if the reads on the player or the run out indicate he cannot have that many bluffs in the range.
If you didn't have reads on him, it is likely he had no reads on you. And against unknown amateurs, there is one thing that is true about most of them. Almost no one bluffs the river as often as they should.
Knowing that, you should never use MDF on the river against an unknown amateur.