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Tough spot facing x/r OTF /w TP

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02-16-2018 , 08:57 PM

digforplenty

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 154

Thoughts here from a gto perspective? Are we supposed to just call down and hope for missed draws as villians range clearly consists of sets and two pairs and could also river the A with Ax of spades..

Also interstered to hear general MTT strat thoughts whether we can just exploitable fold flop knowing our equity isnt that high in the hand and move on having a good stack deep in big MTT

Villian is a solid reg with x/r flop of 1/13 (small sample)

Party, $50 Buy-in (15,000/30,000 blinds, 4,000 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37931482

SB: 799,685 (26.7 bb)
Hero (BTN): 2,290,886 (76.4 bb)
BB: 3,155,038 (105.2 bb)
MP: 1,614,711 (53.8 bb)
CO: 834,665 (27.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q

2 folds, Hero raises to 63,000, SB folds, BB calls 33,000

Flop: (161,000) 5

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 78,890, BB raises to 247,780, Hero calls 168,890

Turn: (656,560) 3

(2 players)
BB bets 525,000, Hero calls 525,000

River: (1,706,560) A

(2 players)
BB bets 2,145,000, Hero folds

Spoiler:

Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.

Ty in adv

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02-16-2018 , 09:28 PM

HawkesDave

adept

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 1,173

Definitely can't find a call on the river. If he was on a bluff before the river landed, it probably included the As.

Checking the flop for pot control feels like a solid option. QJ feels strong enough to include it in your checking range here.

64, all sets, and Q7s/Q5s/75 are all in V's defend range. The rest of his defend range is unlikely to pick up any equity on most turns so a delayed cbet may have been a better option.

If you checked flop and he barreled 2/3 on that turn and another 2/3+ or overbet barrel on the river you would have been put in an even grosser spot though.

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02-17-2018 , 06:33 AM

digforplenty

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 154

Thanks, yeah i seem to default to cbetting a decent sizing for protection against draws etc, thing is its such a good board for him to x/r and we have to fold flop alot when we cbet with air which turns the spot uspside down really.

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02-17-2018 , 07:31 AM

Titus P

stranger

Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 3

I think his rerasing range looks more like Aq and two pair plus , Asx , and if he just goes crazy in late stage with absolute nothing just omce you wont catch him if he does it alot somene will wake up with a good hand and call him down, i think qj is a fold here and its fine

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02-22-2018 , 01:24 AM

wowsooooted

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 5,077

from an spr pespective I think a ship is guna perform better then a call ott so proly do that.

We are 5 handed and I think a solid reg is often guna be 3b KQ,AQ pre here, he knows our range on btn is often guna be wide.

This would be a great spot to mix a few checks with otf

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02-22-2018 , 06:30 AM

'97

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 144

not folding river once we get there.

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02-22-2018 , 02:24 PM

OutPlayU27

old hand

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 1,688

Really tough spot tbh, but what up with that sizing otf?
Either go bigger, either smaller, is not like we´re gonna go for 3 streets here on most runouts anyway.
Since is BU vs BB, ranges are gonna be wider, so cbetting our range here with a 35% bet otf is more optimal and go from there.
Otr a call is tempting, but i will prob not get there and just fold turn, and move on (esp vs that polarized sizing)

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